2:00 Rolling Star 5/2 The Aintree track is sharp and suits speedier types. Rolling Star's debut was so impressive and he had the look to me of a future Champion Hurdle aspirant. He was quick, nimble, and put the race to bed when asked. Irish Saint franked the form and I see no reason why Irish Saint would turn things around at Aintree when he is a big horse and future chaser. The Triumph Hurdle is so often a stamina race and I would point to the difference in performance from Zarkandar in the Triumph to Zarkandar in this race in the 2011 season. He won the Triumph going away powerfully up the hill, yet looked to be short of pace when dourly getting the better of Kumbeshwar at Aintree. Conversely Grandouet, a real speedster, travelled beautifully before being outstayed in the Triumph, yet was cruising at Aintree when brought down. Better ground should really suit him as should the test of speed, so I favour Hendersons favourite here. 2:30 First Lieutenant 7/2 Silviniano Conti is a lovely horse who is a class act. However the fall leaves doubts for an Evens shot and First Lieutenant will improve back to 3m 1f and would surely have gone close but for a blunder 3 out at Cheltenham. He will stay, and importantly he absolutely loves good ground- his best performances have been on better surfaces. 3.05: Grandouet 4/1 Always a risky proposition because he has fell or met trouble on too many occasions. However, Aintree will suit him down to the ground. He stays a well run 2m at cheltenham and the way he finished Overturn a year or so ago suggests the sharp, flat 2 and a hafl miles here won't cause a problem, and if anything the slightly slower gallop will help his jumping and he can iron it out over the longer trip. Oscar Whisky has not looked the same horse, Thousand Stars would be a danger but got hammered by sub-par opposition when last seen, whilst Countrywide Flame had a real hard race at Cheltenham and is better there than on flat tracks. The New One is a superstar in waiting but its a major ask for a novice to perform the way he did back to back just 3 weeks apart. 3.40 Rebel Du Marquis 8/1 One of the classier types in the race on a going day although this new discipline does pose a different challenge. Importantly ticks the 'distance' column as this is an odd sort of Hunters Chase where you do need a little bit of speed. Not a race to be getting heavily involved in for me. 4:15 Donnas Palm 20/1 Very interesting here having switched to Tim Vaughan. Blinkered again after 3 below par performances in Ireland but very useful at best and goes into this on a great mark- something Tim Vaughan is usually very good at exploiting. Interesting but it is first start for the yard and we don't know how much it will need the run.
Late joining this thread (or early as it is now 00.32 I guess) but been diverted with the comp! I'm pleased to see Stickman point at Connectivity - this went into my tracker after his last run, a reasonable 3rd after 2 years off the track carrying top weight in a grade 3. Any average improvement for that run 19 days ago will see him go very close here, and 20-1 was too good to miss. So I didn't! I'm opposing Henderson's first string, with his second string in the opener. Vasco Du Ronceray ran moderately in the Triumph - but then so did a lot of horses, blown away by the performance of Our Conor, stringing the field out in his wake - and I think the champ may get a good tune from VDR. I'll be having a saver on L'Unique, who I had backed at fancy prices NRNB for the Festival - then had her stay at home. Don't think she can win this, but I'll be delighted if she does
Just 2 bets for today's Aintree festival opening: The New One 3:05 7/2 BOG Rebel Rebellion 4:15 6/1 BOG Goodluck to all.
5.25 Aintree Lienosus 10/1 Although its definitely going to be difficult for a lightly race Novice to win such a competitive handicap, I think Evan Williams's 7 year old has a very lenient opening mark of 131 and I think he's got a massive chance of landing this race as he should relish the step up to 3m. A dual Point To Point winner, this son of Old Vic made an extremely pleasing debut under Rules when 3rd in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle over 20f at Chepstow back in October. Facing significantly more experienced rivals, Lienosus was held up at the rear of the field for much of the contest but started a long and persistent run from 4f out. However, he made a mistake at 3 out where he lost his back legs and all the momentum he had built up. In 4th at the time, he was stopped in his tracks but showed a really lovely battling quality as he recovered from that mistake to power up the run in to take 3rd. If he never made that error, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind he would have finished 2nd and it was a really lovely introduction over hurdles and effort that was full of promise. The winner Wonderful Charm was pitched into the World Hurdle on his next start and although he disappointed he's clearly well thought of by the Nicholls team. The runner up Ballybough Pat (who reopposes tomorrow) had beaten subsequent Albert Bartlett 2nd African Gold on hurdling debut 2 weeks prior and faces Lienosus on 2lb worse terms tomorrow and there is no doubt in my mind that he will reverse the form. The 4th Hawkhill came into the race on the back of a Listed Novice Hurdle victory to solidify the form and it was an extremely impressive debut over timber. Moreover, I think it says an awful lot about how he is rated at home to be pitched into Grade Company on debut and he is clearly a very talented animal. A month later, Lienosus proved that his Rules debut was no fluke when running another excellent race when runner up to Clondaw Kaempfer in a Listed Novice Hurdle over 2m at Haydock. In testing conditions, Lienosus sat in mid division of the 6 runner field and was the first to be niggled briefly (briefly) when the pace initially quickened. Approaching 3 out, Lienosus moved into a line of 3 for the lead and he and the winner proceeded to quicken clear of the remainder. In fine battling style, Lienosus was about 1L down jumping the last and forced Clondaw Kaempfer to get very serious before the latter's superior speed came to the fore late on as he forged on to score by 3.75L. It was another highly encouraging effort over a distance that was much shorter than ideal and another superb display. The winner (who conceded Lienousus 4lb), looks a really talented animal whose victory that day gave him a perfect career 3-3. Clondaw Kaempfer was subsequently stepped into Grade 1 Company on his only subsequent start but he stumbled and seemed to injure himself when travelling well at 3 out and is clearly a serious horse whilst the well beaten 3rd that day Landscape, who carried 8lb more than Lienosus, is now rated 136 over hurdles. Given the winter off, Lienosus shed his Maiden tag at the 3rd time of asking over 18f at Fontwell last month in facile fashion in a pretty poor contest and it was pleasing to see him get a win under his belt. Based on those 3 efforts, I definitely think he's well handicapped off a mark of 131 and I think he'll revel in a fast run race over 3m which should see him improve drastically. He's scraped in here as bottom weight and I think its interesting that he bypassed the Albert Bartlett to come here and exploit what looks a lenient opening mark (was also declared for Friday's Grade 1 Novice Hurdle. Paul Maloney once again takes the ride and Evan Williams has his horses in fine form at the moment. I rate Battle Group and Many Clouds as serious dangers to this ones chances but I'm quite sweet on Lienosus's chances. Although he'll definitely need luck in running in such a large field, if he gets a largely troubled free passage in this I think he'll run a very big race and I think he could prove a class above the opposition off 131.
Great minds think alike? Roto, you're up early! It's supposed to be only old codgers like me who can't sleep- up at this ungodly hour. Or maybe you're counting your money!
5.35 Taunton Thundering Home 6/1 Going to keep this short and sweet but I think Richard Mitchell's Thundering Home as a great chance of landing this contest and I just cannot see him out of the frame. Now with his 5th trainer, this 6 year old grey has been a huge credit to connections this year and looks to still be improving over hurdles. After falling on his handicap debut back in October, he ran out a ready winner off a mark of 91 back in November in ready fashion and after unseating at the last without a penalty a week later he put in another great showing when not beaten far by the hugely progressive Home Run off a mark of 97 at the end of December. After reverting back to the flat and producing a solid 3rd, he put in a tremendous performance in defeat off a mark of 98 at Kempton in February when going down by a neck but gained another richly deserved victory at Sandown over an extended 2m on his latest start. Off a mark of 101, Thundering Home was anchored at the back of the field by tomorrow's jockey Tom Bellamy in the Conditional Jockey's contest before he lived up to his name with a wonderfully timed challenge to get up to lead close home and score by 1.5L. The form of that race looks strong with the 3rd Tuscan Gold comprehensively beating the rest of the field when finding the talented Lienosus too good on his next start whilst the 4th Seventh Sky, who finished in that same position when Thundering Home was beaten a neck two starts back, is now rated 13lb higher having won easily and been defied by a head on his only 2 subsequent starts. Additionally, the 5th Loyaute was beaten 1L in a big field handicap on his next start off the same mark before easily winning a Maiden Hurdle and there is quite a bit of substance to this grey's win. Upped a very reasonable 6lb to a career high of 107, this very much in form grey is stepped up to an extended 2m3f for the first time and given that he relished the stiff finish at Sandown and stayed 15f on the flat I don't think he'll have a problem with the extra distance and feel he can improve for it. The excellent Tom Bellamy, who seems to have a great relationship with the horse, takes the ride and is worth every ounce of his 7lb claim. Moreover, given that he could only claim 3lb of his allowance for the last race, he's effectively only 2lb higher than that success and I feel he has a tremendous chance of following up that victory. Clearly in fine form, I'm hoping Bellamy produces another beautifully timed challenge to win this and I just cannot see him out of the first 3 home.
More like haven't been to bed. I'm quite the insomniac but at least I'm being productive at these ungodly hours!
4.15 Aintree Donnas Palm 25/1 I've hummed and hawed about this one as he is going to have to be given an exquisite ride to win over 2m on good ground but he just looks too well handicapped on his stable debut for Tim Vaughan to go unbacked. Formerly a high class hurdler for Noel Meade, Donnas Palm lost his way for the Tu Va handler this season and is a very interesting acquisition for Vaughan who has reported this 9 year old to be "sparkling on the gallops". Looking at his chasing form, his defeat of the very talented Foildubh in blinkers last February in a Grade 2 contest at Leopardstown make him an attractively handicapped horse off a mark of 133 and he has a lovely racing weight of 10-9. He's been freshened up for his stable debut and comes here on the back of a 130 day absence but has won after a break before so I'm not overly concerned by his lack of a recent run. Richard Johnson takes the ride and there are not many other jockeys I'd want in the saddle given that he's definitely going to find 2m on the sharp side and the faster they go the better for his chances. The blinkers he sported for his Grade 2 Chase win are applied on stable debut and I do think its quite significant that he's pitched into such a competitive race on his first start for Vaughan. Although he could be a spent force, his new trainer has certainly given him some very favourable paddock reports and the change of scenery could have worked wonders for a horse who should still hold his ability at the age of 9. There are definitely a few questions to be answered with regards to Donnas Palm but there is no doubting he's well handicapped off 133 if still the force of old. On ground that shouldn't be a problem, I'm more hopeful then confident with this ones chances but if the switch of stables has revitalised then he could be set to run a blinder and at 25/1 I'm willing to play in the hope he does.
My name sake is having his first run out of the season- unfortunately he looks like he is coming to the end of his career as his last 3 runs have been 777- but at 16/1 and with James Cowley taking off seven im hoping he can rediscover his form of 2 yrs ago and get in to the placings (only a small small sentimental e/w)
Love these three days at Aintree, coming just early enough this year to cut short the post festival depression! Will be in attendance tomorrow as a guest of Betfred, and can already taste the complimentary champagne, always better when it's free! Especially when it's paid for by a M*nchester Utd fan! ;-) First race is a tough one, and very competitive, and despite the result when they met at Cheltenham, at the prices I'm taking the chance on Irish Saint over Rolling Star, kept fresh for this, and in my view will improve for the better ground. On at 7/2. No bet race in the 2nd, but I love Conti, and have followed him all season, he should have too much class for this lot, but there too many question marks over how he'll come out of the race at the festival to be backing him at evens. 3.05 is going to be a cracking race I think, and would normally be a no-bet race too, but I'm a very weak little man, and having had a decent bet on The New One at Cheltenham, I can't desert him now at 4/1, have also had a saver on my little mate Countrywide Flame, who grabbed a well earned place at 20/1 in the Champion Hurdle for me, what a wonderful little animal he is. Have just had a small L15 on the last 4 races as below; Cloudy Lane 11/1 Rebel Rebellion 7/1 Carlito Brigante 8/1 Easter Day 8/1 Good luck all!
I like to see that the forum's Champion's fans have put Connectivity in their note books after he was tipped up at a rather tempting 20/1 on his return to competitive racing a few weeks ago for Dr Newland. He has a good chance today but it's a tricky race. Probably the hardest of the meeting.
Well done 'Champ'. When I looked back through the threads since I have been away I noticed you have been in the winners the last couple weeks with a few odds on shots advised. Sunday didn't look like a great day for you though.
No Sunday was a stinker. All i had was a 20/1 winner, Annie Power that was backed by the Champ at 4/7 and went off 4/11 (the followers get on board it seems) and a 11/2 gamble that went off 2/1 and won. You're right though. Awful day.
Morning all, Cracking day to start the festival off and hopefully Irish Saint can oblige in the opener, fresh horse and good ground can see him reverse the form with Rolling Star. In the 4.15 Echo Bob 14/1 e/w same mark as when coming third in this race last year and in the 5.25 i'll go for Buthelezi 14/1 e/w who looks like an improving novice and should be better over 3m. Good luck to all today!
Morning, troops. Nice to see you to see you...NICE! I like a couple of lively longshots each-way, I say each-way, today. Regular readers, pens at the ready now: Reya Star (3.10 Aintree) – the word on the street is a strong one for this Alan King inmate who has over the past couple of seasons proved himself a very decent animal. Rated 159 by the official assessor and the winner of over £200k in prizemoney I really think the old boy has been dramatically underestimated by those bookie chappies who go 33/1 about a horse already placed at Grade 1 level this term. Furthermore most of Reya Star’s opponents were battered, bruised and bloodied at Cheltenham just 3 weeks ago whereas the county’s hope arrives up at old Liverpool a fresh horse. Forget his run last time as Reya Star wasn’t ‘right’ but today expect him to be so, people. Zaynar (3.55 Taunton) – what a lovely card across the county line at Taunton today with £100k up for grabs. I’ll side with one of my all time favourite horses of all time and hope that those old rogues, the Pipe’s, can restore the old boy to former glories on his first run over hurdles in the UK since the 2011 World Hurdle. Once rated as highly as 168 Zaynar runs today off just 142 plus the competent Edgar boy gets to claim a further 7 pounds. If in good heart and retaining a modicum of his old ability the old boy should make a mockery of that mark as well as quotes from those bookie chappies of 22/1. Finally, I note that the double pays 781/1, people. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more. Although I’m sure many will believe there is more chance of Lord Lucan riding Shergar down my local High Street, later on today, than this pair obliging! Good luck all.
Forgive me, I meant Monday. Dogora, Days Hotel etc. I also notice that like me you post up your bet receipts but not in picture form like me. I'm sure you wouldn't be manipulating them when you cut and paste, would you?
