Apologies for the early start but I'm off to Aintree early doors tomorrow so looking to collect some thoughts tonight: 2.00 I really like the fact that Paul Nicholls decided to swerve Cheltenham with Irish Saint and he comes here a fresh horse. I have the race between him and Rolling Star and, although the Henderson horse has already prevailed in a match, I found him slightly disappointing in the Triumph and I think Irish Saint may have a good chance of reversing form on better ground and being that bit fresher. 2.30 This really should be Silviniaco Conti's race to lose. He is well clear of these on ratings and, assuming he is none the worse for his fall in the Gold Cup, he can gain rich compensation here. Quito De La Roque comes here a fresh horse and could be a nice e/w poke if it stays at 8 runners. 3.05 A superb line up for the Aintree Hurdle and I am in a real head vs heart conundrum - for my head is screaming Grandouet whilst my heart beats strongly for The New One. I backed Countrywide Flame at this meeting last year and he got mugged by Grumeti - I don't think he likes Aintree, a comment I would also aim at Zarkandar - he was all out to beat Kumbeshwar in the Matalan 2 years ago but Grandouet was going really well when being brought down. Oscar Whisky is a big danger if back to his best, he will be on the premises having won the last 2 renewals but I would argue he comes into this in a poorer position than the last 2 years and I just can't see him winning a 3rd consecutive title. With the others looking outclassed it looks like a real gun-fight between Grandouet and The New One. Grandouet is a really strong-travelling type but I just have a nagging doubt about the number of times he's failed to compete on the really big stages and one could argue he is just a touch short of real top class form. However, that may be good enough to prevail here, depending on how much The New One's exertions at Cheltenham have taken out of him. If he bring's his A-game then it will be a humdinger of a race. Still undecided where my money will go, maybe the reverse forecast? 3.40 Gwanako already jumped off the page at me a few weeks ago and I doubt I'll change my mind now. 4.15 A lot of these have been running against each other, particularly in the Grand Annual and again I am looking for a horse that is coming here a bit fresher and has maybe been saved for some decent spring ground. Two that I like are Astracad (backed him e/w in this last year when 2nd to Edgardo Sol) and Donna's Palm. Astracad goes really well fresh and I'm sure he's been laid out for this, whilst Donna's Palm will relish the much easier surface and maybe the change of yard can just reignite a bit of the talent which saw him rated 155 and higher over hurdles. A bit of a risk but I think he comes here a fresh horse with a fair few things going for him and poor old Tim Vaughan deserves a big-race winner after a wretched season. 4.50 I think ***o could surprise a few people here and he is another Nicholls horse to have swerved Cheltenham. He was never travelling last time and maybe that fall took more out of him than people realised. I'll need to check his demeanour before the race and see how he looks, but none of the others really haveme reaching for the old brown envelope. 5.25 This is a real beauty of a race and any one of Mr Henderson's entries would do for me to be honest. But I do quite like the look of John Ferguson's Buthelezi off 133 with Jack Quinlan claiming 3. I think Open Hearted must have a trmendous chance of top weight having hosed up under Geraghty last time, up 10lbs for that but young Nico takes off 7 and has had a great season. oooh I really don't know. Dr Newland's looks to have a nice chance as well. Really, really tricky and I will no doubt have sunk a gallon of ale before placing a bet so anything could happen As you can see I fancy Paul Nicholls to have a stonking good day so will need to check his Betfair column whenever that gets posted. Let's be having your thoughts on the races please
I remain convinced that Silviniaco Conti would have won the GC had he not tipped up. The fall hopefully won't have hurt him, it'll just have spared him a battle up the Cheltenham Hill, and kept him fresh for this. After his Newbury success it's pretty clear Aintree will suit. You won't see a better even money shot all year imo. It rarely pays for Novices to take on the best of their elders a season early, and while I admire Twiston-Davis for having the balls to try it, I have no problem passing over The New One for the Aintree Hurdle. Oscar Whisky has looked unbeatable over 2m4f in recent seasons, and I fully intended to back him here. But if Barry Geraghty thinks Grandouet has a better chance, the hint has to be taken. Having backed him for the CH, I thought he was already beat when he fell, but looking at the race again I'm not so sure. Either way, he has shown enough in the past to suggest he may be very good - clearly his jockey thinks so. So tomorrow I'll be backing two horses who fell last time out - could be a new system taking shape.
All about those big fences tomorrow and the horse who has won a Topham. I have had a dabble on Gwanako for the impressive Jody Sole. 11/2 is a lovely price.
I'm very, very keen on Irish Saint in the grade one juvenile hurdle with Nicholls having such a strong team of young hurdlers and this one having been kept at home during Cheltenham following the Adonis win. Rolling Star and Vasco Du Ronceray have big reputations so I think he'll be a respectable price. 3/1 is better than i expected and i'll be maxing this one out. If he loses, however gallantly, i will be cutting back hugely on my staking plan for the rest of the week. Few will be bigger First Lieutenant fans than me but he never wins which is a problem in horse racing. Even if he did go through with his races better he's got to face Silviniaco Conti in the Bowl and that rival is well clear on ratings and seemingly will appreciate the flatter track. The question mark is obviously how he'll react to tipping up in the Gold Cup but you've got to think that he had basically no more than a fast paced training run that because he just didn't reach the harder stages of the contest. If he handles a fall well he's the one to beat and should really turn this into a 5 length romp. One slight word of caution is that this race threw up a 50/1 winner last year. I really want to get stuck into the favourite but there's something holding me back at the minute. The biggest race of the day and possible race of the meeting is the Aintree Hurdle which is run over 2m 4f. I will dismiss the three outsiders. Oscar Whisky is the obvious starting point having won it the last twice. He could easily have been campaigned for this. The honest truth is we don't know what Barry's instructions were in the World Hurdle. It could have been a case of letting him run his race up until the point of obvious defeat then easing him off to save his body for a three-peat. As much as I'd like to believe that I think it's more likely he was beaten on merit after running a poor race. Maybe he's lost his zip? I don't know. Zarkandar isn't good enough for my pennies and a tough Cheltenham Champion Hurdle can have been nothing less than a test of his powers of recovery. Countrywide Flame produced a decent run last year in the Juvenile race behind Grumeti but this years Champion Hurdle was more gruelling than the Triumph he won last year so the question mark is there that he may very well be less than cherry ripe. It's a comment you can make about every Cheltenham runner in the field. Even Grandouet. That horse, nevertheless, is a bloody good but is a faller waiting to happen every time it steps onto the track. If he can get round he's got a great chance and at 9/2 is a decent price. I'd rather just go win only to be honest as I think he'll either win a battle or will fall or not stay so the place money seems wasted. My favourite horse in this race is one that is always overlooked and often derided by plebs as a second rate horse. I'm not going to list his achievements in horse racing as you lot are lost causes. Arse and elbow comes to mind. Anyway, now i have that off my chest, basically 10/1 is a ridiculous price for Thousand Stars. He's come a nose second two years in a row against a horse in Oscar Whisky that many think is a tremendous beast. How one can be tremendous and the other second rate is a real head scratcher. They missed Cheltenham this year with him as he clearly wasn't right before, during and after the Boyne a month and a half ago. Dismiss that and you're left with a horse that only ever really seems to lose to the best 2 miler since Istabraq, a cherry ripe Oscar Whisky or when the ground is heavy. I'm really very keen on Thousand Stars as an each way bet. I won't be going silly as any one of the top six could win this but 10/1 is a big price and i'm on.
I wouldn't touch Silviniaco Conti at a shade of odds on, not because he isn't good enough, but because Cheltenham will have no doubt left its mark. The theory that he fell, so he should still be fresh, doesn't wash with me as he had completed most of the race. Not to mention what that fall could have done to his confidence. Horses that have run in the Gold Cup usually struggle in this race, look what has happened to Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander in recent years. I have fallen into the trap in the past, and i refuse to fall into it again. I urge the rest of you to think twice before you go piling into Silviniaco Conti at a short price! Yes he is the best horse in the race, but has he had the best preparation? There are a few horses in there that have been laid out for this race, and when push comes to shove at the end of 3 miles, they may well have a little more in the tank
Many Clouds in the lucky last. Bumped into an absolute blot LTO when running 2nd ahead of some well handicapped horses. Can't watch the racing tomorrow
I know. I'll let you make the case for him. If he was 5/1 I'd be on him at the expense of all else but he's too short for me and I really think TS is the right call.
Jetson - tipped up by yours truly at Cheltenham but 7's seems skinny tomorrow. I'll be on but not that big.
Don't all laugh at once but does anyone other than me think that it's worth having a couple of quid on Menorah tomorrow?
5.25 Aintree Lienosus (Nap)After two good Class One performances in Novice Hurdles last season, he hacked up in an easy race on his recent seasonal reappearance. He looks to have a favourable weight. Best Price (10/1) Ladbrokes. 4.15 Aintree. Pires (NB). His third pace last month- only half a length behind Alderwood at levels- looks good, in view of the latter's impressive Cheltenham win. Best Price (8/1) Various. 3.05 Aintree Grandouet Presumably Geraghty has chosen him over 20 furlong specialist, Oscar Whisky. He was travelling as well as anything when he fell in the Champion Hurdle. On this better ground, his turn of foot can prove decisive. Best Price (9/2) Various.
Have a great day tomorrow oddy personally I will be following nicholl's horses as I think he had such a bad chelts he will finish as top trainer crap price of evens on bf so rather back his horses individually starting with Irish saint Thoughts on Nicholls would be interesting guys
I have little or no doubt that ON HIS OWN will be the National favourite. So why are Hills going 11-4 that to be the case? Am I missing something here???
