True Oddy..extrapolating Shergs argument then Flemenstar would have won the Gold Cup easily since he beat SDC on the snaff by 5L whereas BW was flat out.
I'm not sure we're my money will be, it all depends on how they price the race up. I'm not a fan of backing horses at Aintree unless they have proved previously that they can perform at there best at both meetings, 3 weeks isn't enough time to recover for most horses
This is completely true if you look at things in tiny little bubbles but that is not that case with horse racing Shergar. I'd go as far as to say that there's no way First Lieutenant would beat Flemenstar over 2 and a half miles unless Flemenstar's jumping fell to bits. Cue Card, on the other hand, is a good horse who answered alot of questions last week and it would be folly to dismiss him. Having said that i'd probably side with Flemenstar and would expect Cue Card to go off favourite in the race.
Don't buy this Cue Card can't jump opinion, don't see him being outjumped and think he will have too much speed for the Irish raider around the flat Aintree track. Probable good ground would be be questionable for Flemenstar too and his form hasn't really stacked up IMHO. He should get closer than First Lieutenant managed but I think it's a weak 3 mile division right now and that Cue Card will be too good. My 2 cents.
I agree, Cue Card has looked a good jumper when out in front. He out jumped First Lieutenant comprehensively in the Ryanair
Agreed how he went off at 7/2 at the festival is beyond me, he should have been at most 6/4, after his easy win at Ascot. I could never understand First Lieutenant being favourite, a horse who rarely wins a race
I think due to him not winning the supreme when a short priced favourite has made people go against him! Keeps his price good for us believers though
I would say that: 1. Cue Card only won 'easily' at Ascot because Captain Chris mucked up the last. 2. Cue Card is a serious horse, who is a fantastic blend of speed and not a little bit of stamina, who shouldn't be underestimated against anything. 3. Flemenstar wins on the bridle. Flemenstar is a superstar who would have won the Ryanair if he'd made it. (I don't think he'd have won either the GC or the QMCC)
Ok, I realise that sounds a bit inflammatory, but I just mean that I think Flemenstar should be favourite if they both line up, and I'll be backing him if he's not.
What piece of form from Flemenstar makes you think he's a superstar, and could beat Cue Card on the bridle?
Ridiculous to say 'he would have won the Ryanair'. Would of, could of, should of. Cue Card turned up and served it up to a small but select field. Flemenstar isn't a 3 miler so has every right to improve for stepping back in trip but the 3 mile chase division is weak imho. Bob's Worth is the only star after 2 facile wins this season. Potentially Conti as well who looks clear of Long Run and as such SDC. The rest of them really aren't great and that goes for the Gold Cup 2nd and 3rd. The form doesn't stack up for Flemenstar. Not one bit. His impressive 7L victory over Big Zeb looks poor when you compare it to the other 4 of his last 5 runs, beaten 15L, 16L, 20L and 26L. The form ahead of Rathlin has been done no favours whatsoever. He beat a hopelessly out of shape SDC at the start of the season on heavy going. SDC has beaten little of note in his time. Cue Card's form is rock solid. He is sickeningly underrated (still!?) and the amount of people who napped First Lieutenant on Thursday's thread was daft. That one wasn't just beaten, he was battered out of sight. The more I look at the form of both Cue Card and Flemenstar the more I begin to think that this could be a facile victory for Colin Tizzard's charge. One of these horses is a Champion, in the top 3 or 4 chasers in training. The other is a heart-warming story.
I couldn't have put it better myself GGW, agree with all of that. SDC, Flemenstar and First Lieutenant are all ridiculously overrated, and a 12 year old Tidal Bay getting the better of all 3 of them in there own back yard was further proof of how poor the top Irish chasers are. Sprinter Sacre(obviously) Bobs Worth, Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti are all superior chasers to anything over there. Even Al Ferof when he comes back would give any of those 3 a beating
I have no affiliation with either horse but I think your love of Cue Card is clouding your judgment slightly. The field was anything but select at the Festival in the Ryanair and i'm gobsmacked you're suggesting it was to be honest. Forgetting First Lieutenant what did Cue Card beat on Thursday? For Non Stop (160 rated) has been running and losing in grade 2's all season. Beaten out of sight by Menorah lto, fairly easily dealt with by Captain Chris the time before who was subsequently hammered out of sight in the Gold Cup. Riverside Theatre ran poorly as he has done all season. Champion Court - well you've already said the Irish chasers are a load of rubbish and he was treated with disdain by one of those Irish horses at last years Festival. Ghizao. I won't even go there. Albertas Run is 12 and Menorah is a load of crap. Now if you include First Lieutenant you can build a stronger case for Cue Card's win but as you don't seem to rate the Irish horses i don't see how you can although others could. Even with that the horse jumped below par and has done well at Cheltenham in years gone by because he's been able to race on good ground. The official description was good to soft but it was tacky and that doesn't play to his strengths.
Now i'm not saying you're wrong George. I'm just saying that Cue Card's Ryanair wasn't a strong race.
SDC hardly dealt with Campion Court with 'disdain' as you put it, he was pushed out and whipped to score by 4 lengths. Look at Champion Courts form since, and how far he's been beaten. 13 lengths by Silviniaco Conti and 14 by Cue Card. He's an admirable horse Champion Court, but his form is very average at the top table, and SDC had to work hard to overcome him
Bob you're trying to wind me up 1. For Non Stop has won a G2 this season 2. Clearly didn't run to form in the Menorah race. Clearly. 3. Captain Chris better right handed and far from hammered out of sight in the King George, a fact you seem to have forgotten/ignored. 1. Riverside Theatre. 1 run 'all season'. Heavy Ground. King George. 2. Never said they were rubbish tbf. They're not rubbish. 3. Crude measurement but...beaten 10L further by Cue Card. Hows that for disdain? Select was a poor choice of word. It was a decent field that was battered out sight by a star horse with the form in the book that meant such a performance shouldn't have come as any surprise.
