Bore off you bunch of *****!! These are your winners... Emperors Choice Pont Alexandre Boston Bob Sizing Europe Ericht South South West Golantilla
Looking at the champion chase form, forced to look at sizing Europe form ,still cant believe did not win 08 champion hurdle -was on it for a life changer.
1.30 Cheltenham Not a race that I'm going to invest too much in but Willie Mullins's Back In Focus 3/1 looks the standout in this 4 mile contest. 3-3 over fences, I think the fact he was considered for the RSA Chase for such a long time speaks volumes of how highly he is rated. Successful in a Grade 1 on his final start for which he escapes a penalty, he beat stablemate Aupcharlie (who is 2nd favourite for the Jewson) by a head and that is clearly the best form on offer in this race. Having shaped like an out and out stayer, the trainer's son Paddy Mullins takes the ride and he's arguably the best jockey on show in this Amateur event. With Mullins having a belting day yesterday landing a treble, its clear he's got his horses in fantastic form and he could easily prove too good for this field. 2.05 Cheltenham He's gotten very short at 6/4 (may be an idea to double him wit Back In Focus) but Pont Alexandre has been touted as an absolute machine and has looked a superstar in the making. An import from France, Pont Alexandre created a huge impression on his debut when winning in very taking fashion by 13L at Navan back in December. The one hugely important thing to note was that he made his Irish debut for Willie Mullins in a Grade 1 (the first time he has ever done that) and I think it says all you need to know about how highly regarded he is. He came out to repeat the feat in similarly impressive fashion when absolutely trouncing some decent looking rivals and he could be a special horse. He has been the most talked about horse by Ruby Walsh and Mullins in the lead up to the Festival and although he may be too short to back I think there is a strong possibility he'll run amok tomorrow and prove that he is National Hunt racing's new star. 2.40 Cheltenham This looks like a pretty average RSA Chase with the defection of Dynaste to the Jewson after David Pipe copped out. A race that had become a bit of a career killer before Bob's Worth's victory last year, this race doesn't always go to the best horse but often the best stayer and I'm happy with the antepost bet I took on Houblon Des Obeaux at 33/1 a few weeks ago but he's too short for me at 12s now. I probably won't be investing again but Terminal 20/1 looks like he is starting to really warm to fences in his last 2 starts and is actually officially the 2nd highest rated horse in the field. Based on Willie Mullins's comments recently, I don't think he's hugely rated by the trainer but I also get the impression he keeps getting a little surprised by the unexposed 6 year old who looks like he'll stay very well. He looks 2nd choice on jockey bookings with David Casey riding but I think he may be worth a little e/w squeak as he's definitely progressive and open to further improvement. 3.20 Cheltenham Sprinter Sacre will win unless he falls as nothing will get close to the big black aeroplane. 4.00 Cheltenham Absolutely raging with Donald McCain for pulling last years winner Son Of Flicka out of this and sinking my biggest antepost bet in the process but I do really like another one in the shape Jonjo O'Neill's Mr Watson 16/1 NAP who looks to have a serious, serious engine. This former point to point winning 6 year old was purchased t for £215,000 in April last year after running a very nice 3rd in a valuable bumper in Fairyhouse over in Ireland and moved to O'Neill October last year. In his first two starts over hurdles, he looked as if he was a horse that had a lot of ability but he pulled way too hard which threw away his chances. However, the application of a hood has been the making of Mr Watson as it has allowed him to settle down and he's finally been able to harness his immense potential in his last 2 races. He was a very facile winner at Plumpton in January with an all the way success and he continued his progression with a very impressive performance on handicap debut over 2m at Cheltenham later that month off a mark of 127. Under the champ McCoy, Mr Watson made all in the testing conditions and quickened on impressively after the final flight to score by 4.5L and it was clear to me that he was a handicap blot and won with plenty in hand. The form of that race looks strong with the 3rd Quaddick Lake certain to have won off a 3lb higher mark had he not been badly interfered with a faller and a few other horses have run really big races in behind since. There is no doubt in my mind that it was a very competitive contest and I was very taken by Mr Watson's demolition of the field. He's been upped 12lb to a mark of 139 but I still think he's a well handicapped horse who has a tremendous amount of improvement left in him. He's stepped up to 2m5f today which should definitely suit on breeding and given that he won a 3m Point To Point I think he'll certainly improve for the extra distance. I think it will be very interesting to see if he is sent off from the front tomorrow or will there be a change of tactics as he is definitely a horse who should thrive on a fast pace so he could easily be dropped in close to the pace. Although its disappointing to lose the services of McCoy who is committed to ride J P McManus's runner, Richie McClernon should no Mr Watson well from Jonjo's yard and is a Festival winning jockey. With a win already under his belt at the course, 16/1 is a much bigger price than I expected and I'm hoping Mr Watson gives me the winner of this race for the 2nd year running. 4.40 Cheltenham This is an absolute minefield! Kalmann is undoubtedly the most fascinating contender of the day given he is having his first run for Willie Mullins having been purchased for €220,000 after 3 runs in France and its impossible to know how well handicapped he is. The booking of Paul Townend suggests he is Mullins's first string and I certainly think he's worth a little wager at 10/1 given the tremendous form of Muine Beag team. Another I like is Donald McCain's Counsel 14/1 who I think is definitely is well handicapped off a mark of 130. After a poor hurdling debut, the application of a tongue tie really helped Counsel as he ran out an impressive winner before he was stepped into Grade 2 Company on his next start. McCain has come out and stated he got the tactics wrong with Counsel as he was held up but he still ran on well at the finish to be beaten a little over 6L. Nevertheless, the form of those in front of him is pretty strong and the return to more attacking tactics saw Counsel win impressively last time at Sedgefield. He should definitely run a big race and 14s is a good price. One at a huge price that I think looks very interesting is Eugene O'Sullivan's Habesh 40/1 who I think can definitely outrun his price. After two solid starts over hurdles, he won impressively at the 3rd time of asking under tomorrow's jockey Paddy Kennedy by 1.25L from Top Man Michael who had previous shown some strong form and back in 3rd was hurdling debutant Stockton's Wing who has subsequently gone on to score in a Grade 2. He comes here off a mark of 126 and has been kept fit on the flat recently and I think its very interesting that he sports cheekpieces - which he improved in on the flat - for the first time over hurdles. Furthermore, his trainer O'Sullivan has been adamant that he is a better horse on a sounder surface and although its still probably soft he will appreciate the ground more than the heavy his victory came on. A mark of 126 definitely seems workable and Paddy Kennedy (who I don't know much about) takes off another very handy 5lbs. The trainer, who won the Hunter Chase back in 1991, hasn't had a runner at the Festival for a few years and I think he's certainly worth a dabble at 40/1 5.15 Cheltenham I'll be absolutely sick if Blackmail wins tomorrow given that I had a docket for Moyle Park at 85/1 who comprehensively beat him on debut but who does not make the trip. I've backed the highly regarded Golantilla at 20/1 a few months ago who was extremely impressive when winning a P2P and Bumper for Sean O'Brien before being sold to Barry Connell for €375k and moved to Tony Martin. However, he worked poorly at Leopardstown recently and although I think he's got a great chance if showing his true potential my confidence is not as high as it once was. I am quite keen on a horse though who has very much so slipped under the radar in the shape of Drumlee 25/1 and I think he's going to run really well in the extremely competitive bumper. He's the first foal of a dam who is an un-raced half sister to Brave Inca and he was mightily impressive when landing a gamble for Sean McParlan back in November when showing superb cruising speed to come from last to first before scoring in fine fashion by . Seems like he has been picked up by JP McManus and has gone to Charlie Swan - who trained the runner up Tangled Web and who JP owns. I'd say that Swan told JP that they thought Tangled Web was a serious horse and for Drumlee to do that to him then he must be a very, very good horse. Form of that race has been franked strongly as well with Tangled Web winning NTO and the 3rd Our Pollyanna subsequently won very easily by nearly 10L for Prunella Dobbs before being sold to Alan King for £80k in January. He makes his stable debut for Swan (his only runner of the meeting) and I certainly think Swan (who rode the winner of this twice) will know if he has a horse capable of running well in this. I'm quite surprised to see David Casey on board given that Nina Carberry doesn't have a ride in the race but I've no problem with the jockey himself. Its quite difficult to know good Drumlee is with only one start to date but I certainly think he's a talented horse and I expect him to run a big race in what is an extremely open contest.
He was outstayed on extremely tacky ground by the Albert Bartlett favourite when 2.1/2 miles would have felt like four. Sadly beefy with the yard under a cloud we may not see him at his best today which is a shame as I am sure we all want these horses at the top of their game for the Festival.
Worth noting.... 5.15 Regal Encore (9.5/1 Betfair) Watch his last race way back in October. One of the easiest Bumper winners you'll ever see. 4.00 Fiveforthree.(19/1 Betfair) Although Ruby rides the favourite, Abbey Lane, his stablemate, Fiveforthree, offers interesting statistics... Runs off a mark 14lbs less than last time. Although now eleven,has only run during four seasons, and his record "first time out" is WON,WON,WON,WON. 4.40 Saphir Du Rheu (7/1 Various) During Paul Nicholls' pre-Cheltenham interview, he intimated this was his best bet of the week- and then he quickly shut up before he gave too much away.
Morning all - no airport antics for me today I'm back home in Berlin and ready for a cracking days racing sat in the warmth of my abode. The Coral Cup is it's usual tricky contest with unexposed sorts, handicap plots and multiple entries from the big yards, but I think Alan King's Meister Eckhart will run a really nice race and looks a cracking e/w bet at around 16/1. The former Charlie Swan inmate (for whom he was 2/2 in bumpers) transferred to Rebecca Curtis for his novice season and, after winning on debut in game fashion over 2m4f on heavy ground at Ffos Las, he twice finished behind the great Brindisi Breeze, latterly in the Albert Bartlett. It is that run in the 3 mile novice hurdle at last years festival which makes me think he has a real liking for Cheltenham - he was right up there with Brindisi Breeze until fading up the hill and travelled really sweetly under AP. He is now with Alan King and made a sparkling debut for the yard, splitting the Paul Nicholls pair of Prospect Wells and Dark Lover in the Grade 2 National Spirit Hurdle at Wincanton. Both Nicholls horses look solid 150 yardsticks on formlines through My Tent Or Yours and Zarkandar and I think Meister Eckhart's rating of 143 gives him an excellent chance today, especially as he seemed to relish a stiff pace at Cheltenham in the Albert Bartlett last year. Off to study the other races now and also catch up on yesterday's action.
Fair point stick about the New One. I hope the twisters yard comes good too, as you say it doesn't help the festival when yards are slightly out of form. He's a very slick hurdler and I'd fancy him myself on quicker ground in a normal year, i.e. without the favourite.
Someone probably mentioned this yesterday, but Champagne Fever also broke the awful stat of Champion Bumper winners in the Supreme (remember Dunguib, Cue Card et al?) I thought he did it really well, very brave from the front. BUT, I can't help thinking MTOY might have had a harder race than first appeared at Newbury, and that cost him yesterday? I think if MTOY was fresh and the ground was better he would have gone past Champagne Fever. Take nothing away from the winner though and a great training performance yet again from Mullins to have him spot on for the big day
Interesting you mention Fiveforthree as I was told he was to go very well in the World Hurdle and then saw he was pulled to go in the Coral instead. The reason apparently is that Mullins thinks he's well handicapped in this. Ruby opting for Abbey Lane wouldn't put me off as Townend is an able deputy and as you say goes well fresh and has Chelt experience. As mentioned already, the bumper is very competitive this year with a strong Irish contingent as usual. Martin runs two and while Golantilla is fancied by many on here, it's Blackmail that Martin is sweet on. As we've seen before, while yesterday was a punters day, the bookies should bounce back today so expect some decent priced winners today with the exception of Sprinter Sacre and Pont Alexandre....
In the Fred Winter I like to look for a horse who is a little bit battle-hardened, as recent winners (with the exception of Sanctuaire) have had a few runs under their belt and know what it takes to tought it out. Clearly Paul Nicholls thinks his pair are very well handicapped, and I have seen him mention both Ptit Zig and Saphir De Reu in glowing terms, although he did tip up the latter on the Betfair preview evening, but for me they both lack a bit of experience and toughness so I'm going for Phillip Hobbs' High Chapparel gelding Pistol to dictate matters from the front and see off all challengers. Trained on the flat by Sir Michael Stoute, Pistol actually finished 6 lengths ahead of Saphir De Reu on his handicap debut when 3rd to Vasco D'ycy at Newbury. He showed all of his dad's resolution that day to battle on and close down the winner, who had a significant advantage of running up thh stands rail, whereas Pistol was wandering and switched by Dickie Johnson several times. Pistol has since gone on to score 2 victories on heavy ground, both times grinding it out from the front against Tim Vaghan's Sash Of Honour, form which, on the face of it, would not be good enough to win a Fred Winter. However, I think Pistol is a canny bugger who doesn't do a great deal in front, and when he senses a horse coming to challenge him he picks up again. Dickie Johnson rides Cheltenham really well, and I can see him setting out to make all and hopefully Pistol will keep fighting them off. Hobbs and Johnson usually pop in a big-priced winner at the festival and this could be theirs today.
Crikey today's a lot tougher than yesterday and can see big priced winners all round. Only two favourites win today- Pont and Sprinter. Mr Mullins horses are potentially looking underpriced, especially Boston Bob... Oh and let's all spare a thought for dear old Sir Barney Chuckles- he's due to streak down his local main street around 2pm after his bold Champion Hurdle prediction went wrong! In fact I'd suggest he should really be running up and down it as he got the second very wrong also! No doubt the middle-aged female fraternity are setting their alarms as we speak to get a glimpse and I do say expect a few old dears to get very overexcited at the mere thought
Just about finished up yesterday with one out of three coming in so we try again today! 3 bets again today and a watching brief on the others... Unioniste in the RSA Mr Watson in the Coral Cup Sgt Reckless in the Bumper.... ground has come right for this horse and Im seeing it as one for the flat boys!! I drive past cheltenham shortly to watch in some pubs in the Brum area today so we give the folk all a wave!! ...I will be there on friday... Good luck all
Siding with Buddy Bolero in the opener.in the 2nd..think the Ponte Alexandre good thing will be turned over...
all about the Black Aeroplane today for me if he wins then from both a betting point of view (I have him in as the last leg of a couple of accas from yesterday) and for the fact that today we really could see a genuine superstar of the like that I have certainly not seen before. I don't remember Arkle but have seen both Kauto Star and now Sprinter Sacre at a racecourse. I was at Sandown for the Tingle Creek and his jumping was breathtaking. To all those going to Cheltenham today you really are in for something special I think. I think Back in Focus looks very strong in the opener but ROSE OF THE MOON offers a good each way alternative. Currently 14/1 and should stay the trip. Similarly Pont Alexandre looks rock solid in the 2nd race, but CHATTERBOX is a good each way bet. I am coming down in favour of BOSTON BOB in the 3rd, I like the look of MASTER OF THE SEA each way in the Coral Cup and then the 2 Nicholls horses, SAPHIR DU RHEU and PTIT ZIG in the Fred Winter. The bumper I havent a clue!
As stated by ROTO the most interesting runner of the day has to be kalmann. As i gather from various preview nights and such, the horse wasnt even supposed to be running here, so he must have been shoowing something decent at home for them to bring him here at the last minute. The thing i would be most interested in knowng is whether because ruby had already agreed to ride nicholls horse that he felt he couldnt change to this one at the last minute or whether he genuinely thinks the nicholls horse is better. Anyhow he must be doing something right to be the mullins first string. the horse is a strong going sort, and for anyone who is interested in viewing his winning run in france i have included a link below: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAydKGI0QOQ[/VIDEO]
Just watched C4 racing from yesterday and feel absolutely cheated at getting stuck by snow and not making it to the track for what was a truly historic day. You could feel the raw emotion as Quevega swept to the front ............... absolutely awesome. The best racing in the world EOS.
Im with you ROTO on terminal in the RSA. Was impressed by his win last time and think he could be overpriced at 20/1. Also a tentative e/w on Vieux Lion Rouge in the bumper. I was impressed with the way he kept galloping to the line last time on heavy ground and is an extremely difficult horse to pass. He looks like he stays well and thats what you need in a bumper winner.
Morning Oddy. Felt really sorry for you yesterday. Glad you are safely back home. At our farm we have 2 feet of snow here (up to the knees in most places) and we have some beautiful looking drifts up our drive. How these curves and razor thin points are formed I have no idea but it looks very artistic. Can't see over some as they are so high. Thank goodness the snow stopped last night but this will take a long time to disappear. The worst since 1985 apparently. PS. Just noticed a 3 foot icicle. Could be dangerous.
