http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/21716547 Redknapp reckons that 37 points will be needed to avoid relegation this season. Based on my points per game calculation post last week I think the number of points needed to avoid relegation is slightly lower. Bit it's a fair estimation by Redknapp. We are on 32 points with 10 games to go so it would suggest the target is very doable for Norwich. Our points per game is 1.142 suggesting we will end up on 43 points. The minimum required for 37 points is 0.5 points per game. Sunderland and Newcastle are on 30 points after 28 games which is 1.071 points per game which suggests they will end up on 41 points. To at least get 37 points they need 0.7 points a game. Southampton are on 27 points after 28 games which is 0.964 points per game which suggests they will end up on 37 points. They will need 1 point a game to get 37 points. Wigan and Villa are on 24 points after 28 games which is 0.857 points a game which suggests they will end up on 33 points. Given that both teams are on the line of survival this suggests that the number of points needed for survival are 34 (if you forget about goal difference). For 37 points they both need 1.3 points a game. Reading are on 23 points a game after 28 games which is 0.821 points a game which suggests they will end up on 31 points. They need 1.4 points a game to get 37 points. QPR are on 20 points after 28 games which 0.714 points a game which suggests they will end up on 27 points. They need 1.7 points a game to get 37 points. Not there's a chance some of the maths could be wrong as I am using a phone. Of course maths is completely different to football. But this suggests that the form needed for some teams to reach the 37 points suggested by Redknapp for survival is far higher than their overall form throughout the season so far.
I have also noted that Champions League qualification is still possible for all teams down to, and including, Norwich. So don't give up on your dreams of Norwich in Europe next season just yet!
You and that calculator Carla! One thing that I have noted in earlier seasons is that the averages that you base your predictions on just go out of the window when the run-in comes. if you aim for 40 you won't be far wrong.
There was a list in the local paper of the remaining fixtures of the Clubs at the bottom. What struck me was the number of games they play each other - whilst they both can't win they both can't lose. My own feeling is that you may need 40 points in which case we will be in trouble if we don't get at least 4 points from the next 4 games but I can but hope that you are right Carla as it will make life so much easier.
I think its as simple as two wins and we are safe. After that I dont really care if the other teams achieve their mean, median, mode averages, with or without weighting, a following wind and a downhill stretch.... lets get the first of those in the bag on Saturday so we can all breathe easily again. 3 points against Everton was massive for us and so will they be against Saints. OTBC
30 points to play for, Chelsea in 4th are on 52 points. We could still mathematically get into the Champions League on goal difference!
On the BBC site it shows that only twice in the last 10 seasons has the team in 17th, who survived, has the team got 40 points or more. I would be quite interested to find out what the team in 18th got in each of those seasons, as they could have been relegated on 1 point less than the team that survived or 10 points less than the team who survived. But the real line for safety is the team in 18th. You get 1 goal more in terms of goal difference or 1 point more then you're safe, so it doesn't really matter what the team in 17th got.
Carla, I think all your saying is that if you take each team's performance in the season so far and apply it to the remainder of the season, the teams will end up ranked 1-20 exactly as they are now!
Yes, this maths just suggests that if teams season form is maintained throughout the rest of the season they will reach a certain number of points so if another teams form decreases or increases this is what could happen. It also gives an estimate of what number of points are needed for survival. But if end of season positions could be determined by maths who would watch it? I think at the end of the season the number of points as worked out above will be quite different but it will be interesting to compare the actual table to the final points above.
I agree with Thurnby. All this math is very impressive but things start to change once the end of the season comes. The teams at the bottom scrap even harder, the teams who become safe start to dream about the beach, the unwinnable games against MU or MC become winnable once the championship is decided. Look at last season. The teams down the bottom were so bad, it looked as if they might not even get to 30. Then QPR and Bolton started to get surprising victories and in the end I think it took 37 to get to safety. I think we may need 39 this season (because of our awful goal difference).
I think dorset's point was that your analysis is bound to leave everyone in the same place - average can be affected by form at any point of the season 5-game rolling average would be much more useful if you have the time haha, would let us know who is in the ascendancy!
I thought I was the only one who realised that - absolutely insightful analysis there Carla, brilliant And at the risk of sounding like Wonky here, one of my big bug-bears in life is when anyone quote figures to three decimal places Particularly in this context, any more than one decimal place, two at a push is completely unnecessary! I'm all for a bit of analysis - that being my day job and all - but it would be great if you could use less decimal places in future
I would if I could include the possibility of team's forms changing but unfortunately maths doesn't allow me I do that. Munky, I could have easily written 7 decimal places! But I did use the full figure in the maths.
Then in that case, and please forgive me for being so bold, doesn't it make this entire thread completely pointless, in fact one of the most pointless thread in living memory? It gave me a laugh at least
