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Finances + realistic transfers

Discussion in 'Manchester United' started by Valencia25, May 18, 2011.

  1. Valencia25

    Valencia25 New Member

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    Revenue
    Matchday income was actually quite weak in Q3 compared to last year (down 9.1%). This is a little odd given the number of games (9) was identical to last season and the average attendance (74,628) were only 148 lower. There was one additional cup game and one less league game, but prices are identical for both and shared gate receipts are treated as an expense. For the nine months, matchday income was down 3.7% due to one fewer game than last season. The fourth quarter will be better than last year as there will be two more games including a Champions League semi-final for which ticket prices are higher. Adding in the US tour, matchday income should be up around 4% for the season compared to 2009/10. The twenty nine games played by United at Old Trafford this season is about as good as it gets in terms of number of matches (unless there are several FA Cup replays in a season).

    Media
    Media income is recognised as games are played. The 9% fall for the quarter and 1.6% fall for the nine months mainly reflect the one fewer Champions League away game vs. last season, something that will clearly reverse this quarter. With United progressing to the Champions League final, the media results for the full year will depend on whether we win or lose. Winning is worth €9m and losing €5.2m. In total, United will receive either c. €52m (£44m) or c. €56m (£48m) from UEFA for 2010/11. This compares to c. £39m last season. Next season, winning the Premier League will increase United's share of the English "market pool" from 30% to 40%, automatically adding €4.2m (c. £3.6m) to media revenue.

    In the Premier League, the new international rights deal is mainly being allocated to parachute and other solidarity payments. Each Premier League club will receive an additional £5m each. United's total Premier League media revenue will be around £58m.

    Commercial
    The impact of the automatic Nike step-up, the extra Aon income and the raft of secondary sponsors continues to drive this area of the business. Continued growth into next year relies on further deals, something the ever optimistic Edward Woodward spoke confidently about on the conference call.

    Costs
    Q3 is a quiet quarter on the wages side, especially with no major transfer business in January. The club announced new deals for Carrick and Fletcher during the quarter. Looking at the year to date figures, wages are still rising faster than turnover and were up 8.1% during the nine months vs. last season. Other costs were also up 8.1% but were flat in Q3 on the prior year.

    Wage growth remains THE financial problem in football. Woodward expressed some confidence that the Financial Fair Play rules would dampen wage inflation in the future, but that this effect would not be seen for a while. The transitional mechanisms in FFP mean that clubs have another couple of years to get their houses in order before the rules bite, and that probably means a couple more years of rising costs.

    Operating profits
    EBITDA (ex-player sales) was down 2.8% for the quarter and up 1.5% for the nine months. As mentioned above, the timing of games and extra revenue from progressing all the way to the Champions League Final will appear in the next quarters' figures. The successful season on the pitch should lead to moderate profit growth for the year. Woodward warned that winning at Wembley on 28th May would cost the club a large (unspecified) amount in bonus payments to players and coaching staff. In modern football winning is expensive...

    The club recognised an interest charge of £34.9m for the nine months (£11.2m in the 3rd quarter). Because bond interest is paid in February and August, the cash interest cost year to date is actually £47.0m. This brings the total cash interest paid by the club since the 2005 takeover to £239m and total costs including fees etc to £369m.

    The third quarter is working capital negative for all football clubs (cash received from ticket sales and sponsors at the start of the year is being run down as wages are paid). Operating cash flow for the nine months was £40.6m after this working capital outflow. In addition to the £47m spent on interest, the club invested £5.7m in capital expenditure (box refurbs at Old Trafford). Net cash transfer spending (stage payments on Hernandez, Bebe, Smalling and Lindegaard) was only £12m during the nine months. This left cash before financing down £24m. There will be a huge seasonal rebound in cash flow in Q4, last season this amounted to over £60m.

    In the third quarter United repurchased £5.5m of bonds to take the total buyback for the year to £29.5m (face value). Not all this cash spend fell into the period. At 31st March the club had a cash balance of £113m. With the dollar weakening vs. sterling (and therefore reducing the sterling value the dollar denominated element of the bonds), gross debt fell to £478m. The fate of the repaid PIKs remains a mystery.

    Other bits and pieces
    The club's amortisation charge was down slightly due to limited transfer spending in the last few years. The goodwill amortisation charge should be ignored, it is an irrelevant non-cash accounting rule.

    Thoughts
    The machine hums on at United. These results were dull but next quarter's will be good due to an excellent season on the pitch. The run to the Champions League final will boost both media and matchday this season, but of course such years can't be relied on and underlying, the only real growth is from the commercial arm. So far the commercial arm has done enough to offset cost inflation, and this remains the long term challenge.

    With the PIKs "disappeared" and Fergie proving he didn't need to spend much last summer, United remain awash with cash. The £113m will rise sharply from now to the end of June. Will SAF spend it? Will it be kept for the next manager? Will the Glazers swoop in and grab it in dividends, something they haven't done so far of course. Only time will tell.

    Okay I have got this information from Andersred. From this information, it looks like we are going to have a great season on the pitch and off it. Our 113m in the bank will rise "sharply" and we will have a record breaking revenue for this season but to be honest we always break our revenue records but this time it will be by a significant amount. Lets rewind to 2005. It all looked like a plan of doom and gloom, with that 63m interest charges and that mountain of debt. This time round somehow the PIK has gone but no one knows how. But the interest charges are much less and our profits are much more. After this season we will have a good amount of cash to play with and we will be able to sign players as well as pay down the debt. The Glazer plan is coming together probably quicker that first thought, due our success on the pitch. We will need to invest this summer and this summer is the best time to invest especially with our revenue streams. With the 30% boost in commercial revenue and the increase in revenue from the media we will be in a great position. Ferguson has already confirmed "2 or 3 players will be fulfilled". One will be a keeper and the others likely 2 Midfielder.

    Who will the signings be?

    I feel it will be:

    De Gea/ Sketlenburg
    Wesley S ( thinking about it? Nah we won't get him and I doubt we will sign any top players.
    and possibly a young talented midfielder, Douglas Costa?

    Think about it, we have extra cash and our manager has stated we will sign players. Gill has stated Scholes may retire, Hargo may leave. We will need some players. It is time we bought some real quality. In the summer we will likely get rid of or sell VDS, Kut, Scholes, Obertan, Gibson (maybe), Hargo, Owen, Brown, Berbatov (maybe again). A few players will be loaned to. Cleverly and Welbeck will return and maybe a youngster will be given a chance. We will sign 3 players as well.


    What do you guys think?
     
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  2. Just Dave

    Just Dave New Member

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    WOW that is a long article, give me a while to digest it and I will try to come up with a decent response. Don't hold your breath.....
     
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  3. mufch

    mufch New Member

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    My god you have gone to a lot of work there well done .
    Think De Gea is spot on and Costa looks a good prospect though we did reject a deal for him before he left Brasil . As to Wes hmmmm I'm undecided great player that he is he does seem to occupy a position Rooney already fills . However if Fergie goes for him then he'll have a plan .
     
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  4. HRH Custard VC

    HRH Custard VC National Car Park Attendant

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    Interesting read.

    Now all we need is KPR to come over and talk crap
     
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  5. Swarbs

    Swarbs Well-Known Member
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    Good to see some solid financial figures again, and it'll be interesting to see how we stand without all the one off refinancing costs come the end of the season. I thought matchday revenue was down cos the extra FA Cup match was vs Crawley, and the prices were lower than they would have been in the league. Interesting to see that winning the CL could actually cost us money, cos the huge bonus payments might outweigh the additional prize money!

    Player wise, it would be interesting to see if we go in for Eden Hazard now he's said he'll probably leave Lille this summer for a CL club. Costa would be another great signing for the future, and I'm still torn on whether De Rossi or Sneijder would be better for us in the CM position. Gonna be an interesting summer whatever happens in ten days!
     
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  6. The Ginger Marks

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    I think you plagiarised that from http://andersred.blogspot.com/2011/05/manchester-uniteds-q3-results-not.html

    Its normally considered to be etiquette to acknowledge the source rather than try to make yourself look clever.<ok>
     
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  7. Valencia25

    Valencia25 New Member

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    "Okay I have got this information from Andersred. From this information"

    I have already listed where I got the information from <doh>

    So how about you read for once and stop acting as if your some clever guy who corrects peoples mistakes. <ok>
     
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  8. The Ginger Marks

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    O.K.
    Apology needed, Sorry!<ok>
     
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  9. Valencia25

    Valencia25 New Member

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    Ok no problem
     
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  10. Super Injunction

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  11. Valencia25

    Valencia25 New Member

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  12. Sam Axe

    Sam Axe Active Member

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    SAF has already said that he will be looking to plug the massive holes about to be left by VDS, Scholes and Giggs. So, it will be a keeper (looking more like De Gea), a central midfielder and a left winger (who must be left footed so not Ashley Young).
     
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  13. KingPepeReina.

    KingPepeReina. Active Member

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    He'll be looking for players alright,but it won't be from Europes elite,It will be from the French 3rd division and from a homeless shelter in Portugal.Very similar to an extent as last summer.
    You'll be lucky to get 10p for Hargreaves when you attempt to sell him,so that an £18 million loss,as nobody will pay more than 10p for an invalid.
    As for Owen,Everton won't even take him.as they can't afford his wages.
     
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  14. Julius Caesar

    Julius Caesar Well-Known Member
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    insightful as always KPR.
     
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  15. Four2Three1©

    Four2Three1© Active Member

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    Even if this happens...
    We'd probably still finish above you <ok>
     
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  16. KingPepeReina.

    KingPepeReina. Active Member

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    Fergie will be like your fans,dependent on freebies.As Salfords are also known as ''Freegans''.They do their shopping at the local dump or in bins.
    So it would be incredibly foolish of you lot to refer to Liverpool fans as ''Bindippers''.
     
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  17. Valencia25

    Valencia25 New Member

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    King Pepe <laugh> Hargo contract is up. Sometimes I wonder how far you will dig to make yourself look like a prat.
     
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  18. Sam Axe

    Sam Axe Active Member

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    Will you please **** off somewhere else you inbred piece of ****

    PS I don't care if I get banned as that had to be said
     
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  19. Swarbs

    Swarbs Well-Known Member
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    Does anyone know what the insurance situation with Hargo is? I know the insurance company has paid 70-80% of his wages since his injury, but do we get a lump sum if he never returns to fitnesss for us? I've heard fans say we could get all his unamortised value back from the point he got injured, which would be around £13.5 million.
     
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  20. Valencia25

    Valencia25 New Member

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    To be honest Swarrbs, I don't know. I do believe we should let him go as he is just wasting squad places now. The big question is, if he returns to fitness will he be the same? I really doubt he would be at the same level.
     
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