Quick question, is Cantlow that well handicapped? He reminds me of Sunnyhillboy a few years ago, the worst kept secret in racing. He'll get smashed into no doubt when his target becomes clear but can you really and so obviously still plot one when the handicaps are so competitive ?
Yep but no one was talking about Son of Flicka in the run up to the festival last year. He got smashed into on the day but the previous year he was top weight and something like 33/1 so he was no plot that year.
Flicka was 66/1 when his owner started backing him. That guy backed him into 16/1 if memory serves. He won over £900,000. I've been told it was common knowledge that he'd backed him to win a similar amount the previous year. I get what you're trying to say about the ability to plot a horse up for Cheltenham but can't agree when the facts don't back it up.
My opinion is that CANTLOW has been campaigned consistently over trips a long way short of his optimum. Had he been campaigned over 2m 6f to 3m all season he would now be off a much higher mark.
I would have been so, so keen on Cloudy Too for whatever handicap he turned up off a mark of 137 but I've no idea why Sue Smith has got another win into him and got him up to 146. He should still run well and I'll make a decision closer to the time. Massive fan of the horse who will markedly improve when stepped up in trip. That said, with Hunt Ball going for the Byrne Plate off 157 he should have a nice racing weight.
I never make a final decision until the day of the race so i know oooosition,ground etc but i really like swing bowler who is likely to go for the county hurdle ! crackin value at 16s too... Beautifully bred i reckon better ground will suit and she ll have a great chance!
I'll give you two horses I really like. The Supreme bankers have all gone astray over recent years so the law of averages tells me we are due one to come in! My Tent or Yours will hopefully turn the bankers graveyard stat on it's head but it's price is becoming unrealistic now and I'd be hopeful it will be bigger on the day, probably around 2s which is what I backed it at last week. My second choice comes in possibly one of the most competitive races at the festival and I'll keep it short and sweet- it is in the Ryanair. An Arkle winner and a Champion Chase winner (arguably could / should have been dual winner) who needs this sort of trip nowadays must be top of anyones list. Sizing Europe is going to win this race! Backed at 7s, will go off 3s.
Is it possible to put it all on a place? If so then, at 5/1 I'll take Reve De Sivola in the World Hurdle
As it's a free bet I'm gonna be frivolous and take a tenner ew on Celestial Halo @ 50s in the World Hurdle. Looking through the Nicholls/Mullins entries I'm not sure many of the others will line up. Thus I wouldn't be surprised if Ruby is on board on the day. No evidence to suggest CH stays 24F infact little evidence to suggest he stays 21F! However a world hurdle campaign has been mentioned for this one in previous years but I suspect discounted due to a certain Big Bucks under the same ownership. Which nicely ties in the clincher for me.....Big Bucks ruled out but connections secure the prize with this fella. A nice Cheltenham story I'm sure everyone would agree. On the other hand he could be pulled up with a circuit to go, but there can be few classier 50/1 shots lining up at this years festival.
Reve was being offered at 5/1. If I can back him for a place only rather than ew then I'll have the place bet. I'm assuming that would be Evens. (ie equivalent of backing an even money shot to win).
there seems to be the best value in the races on Gold Cup day I like the look of Far West (5/1 Triumph Hurdle), At Fishers Cross (5/1 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle), Long Run 6/1 (Gold Cup) and Salsify (3/1 Foxhunters) How about a lucky 15 on those 4?
Reve De Sivola is currently 2.22 in the place market on Betfair. That does look a decent bet, might have some of that. Thanks.
Salsify is definitely not good value at 3's now in the Amateur Gold Cup. 9's a few weeks ago was value but 3's is a shocking price IMHO
Viva Colonia 16/1 in the Grand Annual. Get back your festival losses in the final race and thank me after
