Why would Tim Vaughan debut a horse in the National Hunt sphere in a Grade 2 Novice race? I mean why not go for a standard novice race? I'm talking about Figaro in the Dovecote? Do we think he's just been waiting for the ground? I know this isn't an isolated one off but I've always thought that it's odd.
Very confident selection tomorrow at Lingfield. Lingfield 4.50 My Son Max 7-2 I beleive this horse is a fantastic bet tomorrowas he won very nicely in October under Frannie Norton who teams up again tomorrow. He was then given a break and ran well to dead heat for third on his return, that should have put him spot on for tomorrow. The only thing against him will be the draw but Frannie is a jockey that will be able to give him a chance from a bad draw. In my opinion it's a decent bet.
One from me tomorrow - Oh Crick 3.20 Chepstow Won this race last year off 3lbs lower and i think he comes in with a big chance of winning it again. Ran a good race when finishing second to Ulck Du Lin three starts back at Newbury but ran poorly the last twice however im not sure the heavy ground will have suited (has won on soft). Wore blinkers for the first time in this race last year and they are back on today having been left off for the previous four starts. Hopefully they can have a similar effect this time and he can land this contest. I rate Oiseau De Nuit as the main danger as he could well outclass this lot if still retaining his old ability and i am wary of him so may play the reverse forecast
55/1 for Colsearts in the golf looking good now - down to 11/1 and a lot of top players out (think all of the top 10) Back to the nags here are my win selections for tomorrow or later today NEWCASTLE 13:45 NOVICE CHASE (5YO) 3m Real Milan @ 5/4 (GP) CHEPSTOW 15:20 HANDICAP CHASE (5YO+) 2m 110yds Doeslessthanme @ 5/1 (GP) KEMPTON 14:40 NOVICES CHASE (GRADE 2) 2m 4f 110y Molotof @ 5/4 (GP) KEMPTON 14:05 JUVENILE HURDLE (GRADE 2) 2m Lunique @ 3/1 (GP) FAIRYHOUSE 14:35 CHASE (GRADE 2) 3m 1f Quito De La Roque @ 5/2 (GP)
Did and E/W Lucky 31 and singles on the following: KEMPTON 13:30 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f 110y Lexicon Lad @ 13/2 (GP) Best performances have been on better ground and over this trip. Should be on a workable mark for this race having dropped a few pounds down to just 4lbs above its last winning mark LINGFIELD 14:30 LISTED STAKES (4YO+) 6f Capone @ 11/1 (GP) Came a close third in this last year and generally runs well at this track and this level. If not held up too much and being well drawn in stall 3 may turn around form with Piscean particularly with extra furlong to suit. NEWCASTLE 14:55 HANDICAP CHASE 4m 1f Our Island @ 9/1 (GP) Ran pretty well in the Welsh National and has a decent record over extreme trips, which at least half the field are unproven over. Should go well if the ground stays on the soft side and is nicely weighted carrying only 10st 4lbs, and was won off a 3lb higher mark in the past. KEMPTON 15:50 RACING PLUS CHASE 3m Nacarat @ 8/1 (GP) Seems to perform best at this track and seems to be one of the few in the race with this race as the main target for the season. One concern would be that it may be taken on for the lead, however if it does get to boss the front then it could be hard to stop. KEMPTON 16:25 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f Hollow Penny @ 8/1 (GP) Step up in trip should suit and appears to have a progressive profile and is one of the least exposed in the field. Comfortably holds the Twiston Davies horse Kaylif Aramis on an earlier run. Quicker ground conditions almost certainly will suit also.
2.00 Fairyhouse Forever Gold 12/1 This horse is a plot waiting to happen and I think that today is the day the handbrake will be lifted off Forever Gold on his handicap debut for which Philip Enright gets down to his joint lowest weight of the last 12 months of 9-10 to take the ride and in a race worth €15,000 to the winner. This 6 year old son of Gold Well is the first foal of Clonbrook Lass who was a full sister to Henrietta Knight's excellent RSA winning Lord Noelie and is trained, owned and bred by notorious gambler Ed Cawley. Forever made the perfect start to his career when winning a Point To Point on his debut at Oldtown in March last year when scoring by 1L from Phone Home (who had previous experience) and has looked a promising recruit for Nick Mitchell in England this season. Additionally the 3rd, 4th and 6th have subsequently score in modest Point To Points and given that he reportedly was pretty green he certainly looked to have a future on the racecourse. His debut Under Rules came a month later in a Fairyhouse Bumper over 18f when finishing a very promising 8.25L beaten 5th in a race full of some very nice types. Held up towards the rear of the field, Forever Gold ended up getting detached from the main body of the field as he received reminders before entering the home bend as he looked a bit clueless but he stayed on very well late on and it was certainly a promising run in a race where the very promising Balnaslow and Mr Watson finished in front of him and the equally promising Legal Exit and Sraid Padraig finished behind him and it reaffirms that Forever Gold is a horse of considerable potential. He took the summer off before making a very eye catching hurdling debut 7 months later in November last year. At Down Royal over 2m under todays jockey Philip Enright, Forever Gold travelled very smoothly into the contest and it very much looked to me as if Enright was did a great acting job in 'cajoling' his mount along to finish a 9L beaten 5th. I'm convinced Forever Gold was still full of running at the end of the contest. That race looks useful enough form without being fantastic with the winner Art Of Logistics (who carried a penalty) looking a useful sort whilst the runner up Toye Native has won a Maiden Hurdle subsequently. Forever Gold's 2nd start over hurdles came at todays course over 18f at the start of Decemeber in an extremely hot contest including Bright New Dawn, Ned Buntline and Mala Beach and it looked very clear he was just out for a spin as he finished well beaten having being dropped out the back for the entire contest. Forever Gold's next start came a couple of weeks later over 2m at Navan when Enright picked up a 4 day ban for failing to obtain the best position possible as he finished an 18L beaten 5th and watching back the contest its easy to see why the jockey received a ban. Sitting in 2nd or 3rd throughout, Forever Gold made a bad mistake at 5 out but it didn't seem to effect him too much as he dropped from 3rd to 5th going around the home turn despite travelling well. In the home straight, it actually looked as if Philip Enright took a pull on a few occasions as he fell back to 7th before easily getting back into 5th when a bit of rein was given to him. Reading the reasoning provided to the Stewards, its quite funny with Cawley stating "he preferred that the whip not to be used today in the ground" and "I was satisfied with the ride". I bet he was!! Although the winner Wing Tips is a very nice horse, the other horses in the race's form looks pretty dreadful but he again finished full of running. Forever Gold's final start came at Leopardstown in a Maiden Hurdle at the end of December in a race where he was never put into the race again under Paul Carberry and although he didn't look full of running that day it was his 3rd start in less than a month so he was probably a bit fatigued and he wasn't given a hard time. For those 4 start in hurdles, Forever Gold has been assigned a handicap mark of 106 (races 1lb out of the handicap today) and given that he's never really been put into a race or allowed to finish one off its quite hard to gauge how good he is over hurdles in relation to his mark but given the form of his Point To Point and Bumper run I certainly feel it looks potentially quite lenient. Additionally, he certainly finds quite a bit off the bridle as demonstrated in his Bumper run and I'm sure there is more to come. With regards to todays race, it is actually a pretty decent contest but he's receiving a load of weight from his rivals - at least 10lb excluding the 2nd bottom weight - and his featherweight is a huge positive in testing conditions such as this. Indeed, the 3 horses at the top of the market have to concede Forever Gold 23lb or 24lb and that is an awful lot of weight to give away. Philip Enright takes the ride for the 3rd time having been quite easy on this 6 year old on his other two starts to date but you can be sure he's not getting down to 9-10 not to go easy on him again today. Ed Cawley, whose known to land the odd large punt, clearly has his horses in good order as his last runner was successful. The market will definitely reveal whether or not today is the day for Forever Gold but I'd be very surprised if it wasn't given the sizeable prize money on offer. In addition to receiving a lot of weight, pretty much every runner in the contest has significant question marks (and I hope Berties Dream is given a lovely spin around before heading to Cheltenham) and it looks a very winnable contest. Thoroughly unexposed, I certainly think he could be on a very nice effective mark of 107 and if all goes to plan then hopefully he lands this contest at a nice price.
1.55 Lingfield My Own Way Home 25/1 A risky selection in the Blue Square Sprint Series Final given that its by far the most competitive race David Evans highly tried 5 year old has run in for quite a while but it also represents this Mare's lowest ever handicap mark of 57 and with Noel Garbutt 7lb claim getting her down to a featherweight of just 8 stone I'm hopeful for a big run from David Evans charge in a race worth over £11k for the winner and a contest he took back in 2011. Despite being 0-15 on the AW, there is no doubt in my mind about her effectiveness on the surface and she has 3 wins to her name on turf (most recently in August last year off a mark of 62). She's already had 5 starts this year (all over this C+D), finishing a very unlucky 0.75L 2nd off a mark of 60 (Willie Twiston-Davies claimed 5lb) when extremely badly hampered before finishing like a train on the 5th of January and she ran another fine race off a mark of 63 on her next start a week later under Adam Kirby when finishing fast in 4th 1.5L behind the winner. That race has worked out really nicely with the runner up Picansort scoring 3 times subsequently including off a 9lb higher mark (although blinkers have clearly had a huge impact) and very interesting tomorrow's favourite Temple Road - who was probably unlucky that day as he hung left when looking the certain winner 1f out - scoring very, very impressively off the same mark on his only subsequent start. Given that Temple Road only finished a neck in front of My Own Way home and there is a massive 20lb swing in the weights when taking into consideration Garbutt's claim, the price disparity between the pair based on that effort looks huge given that the race was only 42 days ago but My Own Way Home's 3 subsequent starts have clearly been a factor in that. My Own Way Home's 3 latest runs - the latest 7 days ago - have been solid if not fantastic being beaten about 3.5L on each occasion in finishing midfield but her mark has subsequently gone from 62 to 57 in less than a month as a result. A horse that is pretty one paced, My Own Way Home will be looking for the race to collapse as the result of a frantic gallop (race was slowly run LTO) and given the money on offer and looking through the field I think there is a strong chance of that happening today. She's got a lovely draw in stall 4 which should hopefully allow her to adopt a position not too far off the pace and the red hot David Evans seems extremely adept to getting his horses to suddenly peak despite running frequently. Noel Garbutt (1-6 for the yard) takes the ride for the first time on what is his only engagement of the day and his claim means her racing weight is 24lb below that of Temple Roads which is an awful lot of weight to give away over 6f. If Evans has worked the oracle with her and has somehow gotten her to peak just 7 days after her last race then My Own Way Home is both handicapped and weighted to run a massive race. She's going to have to get an untroubled passage and a race run to suit if she's going to land this prize but that is clearly factored her price tag but given that David Evans can do very little wrong at present and this is a big prize he won two years ago I certainly think My Own Way Home is capable of running a very big race.
Ruby Walsh was on The Morning Line, didn't know he was the most successful jockey in Cheltenham Festival history until today (he broke Pat Taaffe's record in 2010) - these are the most successful jockeys at the Cheltenham Festival. 1. Ruby Walsh - 34 wins 2. AP McCoy - 27 wins 3. Barry Geraghty, Pat Taaffe - 25 wins 4. Richard Johnson, Richard Dunwoody - 18 wins Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong! Arkle winning the 1964 Cheltenham Gold Cup for Pat Taaffe. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PDNPTJs4PU
Interesting take on this entry, Toppy. As an unashamed Zarkandar fan, I'd like to see the similarities turn to realities, but it's too conjectural for me. He may just have been held up in his work, been difficult to school or just not mature enough in his trainers opinion. And as a good ground animal, maybe this is the first chance he has had to get a run into him? I'll stick a knicker on him at 14's with Stanley, but my main hope for this race is L'Unique, who has been very impressive in her two runs so far, and reminds ME a lot of Unaccompanied from 2 years ago! Good luck mate
3.20 Chepstow, Renard has a 7lb turnaround with fancied runner Oh Crick on their 2nd and 3rd in a Newbury handicap in December. He's had a break since an unimpressive run at Cheltenham a fortnight later, and with the dead eight set to go to post, the 13/2 with Billy Hill's makes him a fair e/w bet. I've topped up the place part of that bet on Betfair @ 2.28 as I'm pretty confident he'll be in the first 3.
It's an interesting race Archers and a shame C4 can't/haven't got it. If Nick Williams has Cornas bang on for his first run of the season (and he's a trainer who can get them right) I think he'll take all the beating. I've put him in my league but I won't be playing him or anything else today. Feeling a bit flat after the abandonment of Newcastle.
My bookies running a tipping comp in the first 6 races at Kempton so I've gone for these: 1.30 Milarrow - will appreciate the return to a sounder surface and looks well treated off 118 on his good ground form. 2.05 L'Unique - has impressed in her 2 victories and can make the most of the fillies allowance 2.40 Molotov - looks the pick at the weights and a worthy favourite 3.15 Fair Trade - another who will appreciate the much better ground and the value bet of the race 3.50 Wyck Hill - difficult not to be impressed by his victory over Katenko and, although up 13lbs for that, he could still be a well-handicapped horse 4.25 Katkeau - outgunned by a heavy ground specialist last time and should go much better here
Hi Brough everything i put up us linked to AppraiseForm. Im just not that bothered about twitter. Follow on exclusive and daily threads for my tuppence worth. Good luck today.
Fancy Stockton's Wing to get the better of Dogora in the first at Fairyhouse, just think it represents proven better form and Dogora was hard pushed to win a weak enough race last time out. Any opinions?
I tend to agree with you that this has an outstanding chance. A mate of mine has gone to Chepstow today and i ve told him large e.w bet!!
