Really keen on the chances of Ferdy Murphys 'ON GOSSAMER WINGS' tomorrow around 7/1 at present and in this 8 runner event (hopefully it stays that way) an EW bet to nothing. The form of his Catterick run last time has worked out reasonably well. I think his optimum trip is 2m and he reverts to that tomorrow. There is no early move for anything and i expect this one to go very very close indeed. I would be stunned if there wasnt a move for this.
3.40 Sedgefield Umadachar 5/1 Warren Greatrex makes the rare 500+ mile round trip up to Sedgefield with a couple of runners today which should both go very close to winning but the one I think represents excellent value at 5/1 is his 5 year old mare Umadachar who makes her handicap debut over hurdles off a mark of 114 which I think she looks to have been given a pretty lenient opening mark by the handicapper. Making her debut a little over a year ago, Umadachar developed into a really useful horse in bumpers winning at Folkestone on her 2nd start before placing in two large field Listed Bumpers in March and April of last year before taking the summer off to presumably strengthen up. On the back of 7 month absence, Umadachar was a little disappointing on her hurdling debut when beaten 20L over 2m at Towcester back in November but she clearly benefited greatly from the run, the experience and the step up to an extended 2m6f when scoring 12 days later. Held up in the rear of the field by Noel Fehily, Umadachar had to be niggled at various stages of the contest and had to be driven by Noel Fehily heading around the home turn but despite hanging left a bit she asserted late on to score by 0.75L with the front two drawing well clear of the remainder. The form of that race is difficult to decipher as the runner up Floral Spinner has finished runner up to two useful types on her only subsequent starts but I think it will turn out to be pretty useful form in due course. Umadachar's only subsequent start came at the end of December over 2m4f at Fontwell when a well supported favourite but she finished more than 30L behind the front two in finishing 3rd and I am sure this wasn't her true running. In very heavy ground that saw half the field pulled up, Dougie Costello never looked happy on her from an early stage and I'd be inclined to put a line through that effort. Strictly on her hurdles win to date, 114 seems about right as to what she has achieved over timber but I think there is an awful lot more to come from this 5 year old based on her excellent bumper form. Given that she looks like she races a bit lazily at times, I'm very happy to see first time cheekpieces applied for this Mares Handicap Hurdle and if they help her concentrate and stay interested at her job at hand then I think they could bring out significant improvement from her. A P McCoy, who has a fantastic 7-12 record when teaming up with Greatrex, takes the ride and his booking clearly signifies that connections are expecting a very big run. Moreover, Umadachar seems exactly the sort of horse who would excel under a McCoy drive and I think the pair will make a very formidable partnership. With regards to tomorrows contest, I would be lying if I said I would have greatly preferred if the trip was a little bit longer than 2m4f but I can't imagine her trainer bringing her on such a long journey if he felt she wouldn't handle it. Of the opposition, the couple of recent winners Vinetta and Sparkling Hand should run well but the latter is turned out under a penalty after scoring 10 days ago whilst the latter should face competition for the lead after having an easy enough time of things when scoring over C+D last month and I think Umadachar's unexposed nature could see her improve past them. The other fascinating runner in the field is Donald McCain's fellow handicap debutant My Flora who has some very strong Hunter Chase form in the book but she hasn't looked at home over hurdles to date so I couldn't have her. Warren Greatrex has hit top form in the past week with 3 winners and he boasts a 1-2 record at the track which represents a long travel for the Lambourn trainer. With ground conditions to suit, if the cheekpieces perk up Umadachar I'm confident that McCoy can get an excellent tune out of her and hopefully can steer her to a 2nd success over hurdles.
Its all about Huntingdon for me today; I put two up last night; ROCKY ELSOM 2.00 who impressed me last time and only has a 3lb hike & LOST IN NEWYORK 5.00 who has run two really good races over what I see as inadequate trips since coming over from the Irish p2p scene. Last time out he was running a blinder when stopped in his tracks by flattening the second last at Towcester. Thundestorm was the winner that day and we knoe how well in that boy has been. A huge factor in this ones favour is the fact that Noel Fehilly takes over which I see as a really positive jockey booking. By the time I posted it last night the 14's was gone and now so has the 11's and the 10's. Big danger and worth a saver is WILLIAM HOGARTH for the shrewd Goldsworthy yard. In addition to these two I also have a sneaky feeling for WHISPERING JACK 2.30 20-1 with Josh Moore taking off a crucial 3lb. He has a big chance at the weights coming back off a break!
Morning to the forum faithful. How are we??? Good, good. Well then PURPLE BAY went some way yesterday to confirming that the whispers re him were correct. His next race will be either the Festival Bumper or the Grade 2 Bumper up at Aintree on Grand National Day. Is 20/1 for the former incidentally. We will all, I'm sure, keenly await the next update from Mr Ferguson. Nothing for me today but good luck if you do opt to trade.
Three for me for today: 3:00 Huntingdon - Act of Kalanisi 5/1 4:20 Ayr - Lady Bluesky 8/1 4:25 Meydan - Lillys Angel 6/1 And four for this evening: 5:30 Kempton - Blue Noodles 4/1 6:30 Kempton - Steel City Boy 6/1 7:30 Kempton - Fleetwoodsands 15/2 8:30 Kempton - Wildomar 10/3
Other than Umadachar I like one at a price in the lucky last at Huntingdon. General Ross is the horse, and he created a favourable impression with me when I saw him at Wincanton when a fair fourth to Benvolio (who followed up with a handicap win at same track), in which he tracked the leaders into the finishing straight before finding them too good under a compassionate ride from his inexperienced jockey. He didn't look ready for the race in the paddock that day, and I wasn't surprised when he finished down the pack on his last run before a handicap mark. Once again he never really was put into the race and is perhaps better than the bare result. Today he is thrown into a handicap, with a mark of 98 and I think that could be workable for the horse when he has strengthened up from how he looked at Wincanton, and I feel that day could be today. Its a poor race and at 16/1 he is definately interesting to me.
Has there been a recent scratching for the Triumph Hurdle? I have had a little bit on Bordoni and was looking to have a little bit more after yesterday but he isn't priced up on oddschecker?
Mentioned yesterday evening I liked the chances of Act of Kalanisi but was waiting to see how the race was priced up. I like 11/2 a lot. Sur le nez because he might fall/unseat.
Morning Sir Barney... Having just had a look at the race this morning what would your take be on the plucky 2nd placed horse Wilde Blue Yonder...? If whispers are right about your Purple Bay then im sure we will have to keep one eye on the 2nd dont you think...? He has 3 more entries in the future, one of which is at Sandown this weekend, which intriguingly so has Purple Bay... Very much game on one would say... Plus i dont think Wilde Blue Yonder will be a 16/1 shot to Purple Bays evens...!!! Plus its such a lovely name for a horse, Wilde Blue Yonder, isnt it...
Red, yep both look really good horses and they were 9 lengths clear of the 3rd (a previous winner) which bodes well for the future. Alan King has targeted the Grade 2 Aintree bumper on Grand National day before (did so with Montbazon big time a couple of years ago) so maybe he will send the promising Wilde Blue Yonder there. He also ran Montbazon in the very rich bumper at Newbury just after Cheltenham (which I think is worth £50k or thereabouts) so he could go there as well as or instead of Aintree. Certainly has options after yesterday anyway. Personally, I would love to see Purple Bay head to Cheltenham in what appears bumper wise, according to the bookies anyway, a very open year.
Both have a NH Flat race in them now, plus a few more future entries, but when do you think they will be stepped up to actually facing a jump...? Are these two, looking forward a year from now, a Supreme Novice winner in the making or is it just too soon to predict... As you say Montbazon was targeted at Aintree soon after Cheltenham but came a close 4th to Cinders n Ashes the following year, so its very much a open book for the both of them... It will be good for us to watch and see how they do progress...
Dunroe Boy 7/2 4:55 Clonmel Has been offered a great chance here to get his head in front after some good runs lately, it's a weak enough race and a repeat of his last run over the big obstacles will see him win this. He was beaten a shorthead on his last Chase start and has gone up 4lbs since then over fences but i think he will prove very difficult to beat should he reproduce that form wit Paul Townend on board.
Just looking at a few stats on Irish Racing website and while i don't usually follow them blindly this one caught my eye. Little Boy Boru who runs in the 4:10 in Sedgefield for Stuart Crawford has 100% strike rate(4-4) when his brother Steven takes the ride. He claims 3lbs and it may be worth a look in the betting as to what indications are for this one.
