MULLINS WAY 5.10 Southwell 7-1 was second at Wolves in the not too distant past to Viva Ronaldo when beaten 1/2 length off a mark of 83 and ran well here much more recently off 70 when only beaten 3 lengths. Jo Hughes knows the time of day and the money is coming for him. If primed to win a mark of 63 is paltry!
You have it to beat Our Ivor stick? Only been raised 6lbs for a 6 length win last time out. 4/5 is quite short though.
Had a feeling that one would catch your eye Stick. I've been waiting, and waiting and waiting for him to go back to Southwell. 7s is a little too short for me at present but hoping it takes a slide in the market. This is what I had said for his Southwell debut when giving an extremely tender ride by JP Guillambert. I really thought they would get him into a 0-60 given that they were so close so that would be another hesitation I'd have
LOL ROTO, we know each others games too well ;-) No way does this boy drift. The yard like a tickle to pay the bills and back at Southwell it seems a no brainer, no way does it drift and I think 7's is very good value off this mark and in this grade!
I may have spotted a tasty plot in the making. All will be revealed after further analysis. Will chuck it in a double with Mullins Way if it checks out
Emptied it there Stick. That was my only concern but enough form on soft for me to still think it won't be a major issue.
Nice looking novice hurdle at Wetherby. Bobowen proven as well above average, Whispering Gallery top class (G3 winner) on the flat and looked to have plenty left when winning on hurdles bow, McCain horse no mug and Minella Fifty cost £150k. Race of the day. Interesting that Dickie Johnson has the 1 ride tomorrow, for Susan, and he's doing 10stone on the horse, his lowest weight in 12 months. 25/1 shot but would he be bothering if it had no chance? Got to be worth a market check on handicap debut!!? 2.30 at Taunton The Last Bridge that one. Over at Wetherby I'd say Charlie Crab might be worth a quid or two in the 2.40. 25/1. This one has had an opener 8 days ago and if he comes on from that and retains any of the old ability then he might well make his mark of 100 look a bit of a joke. Minimum stakes but I can't believe they would have persevered with this one unless they felt there was something there. Again, worth a market check for sure.
Flagged that up when he was doing the exact same thing on handicap debut over fences (same mark) when Plumpton was called off last week. I tried to make sense of it and although its as low as a mark as you could possibly I couldn't find any glimmer of promise to back the horse! Its not his only ride though. RP were lying.
I see Barizan is out tomorrow. I remember backing him on course for the Triumph at 20/1 or so when he went 25L+ clear of the field only to get pipped by Soldatino. Shame to see his career has gone backwards since then and he's 28/1 outsider of six off of a paltry 122 tomorrow. Weird and unpredictable animals these racehorses. Either that or he pops up in a festival handicap and wins by 10L! Be interesting to see how he goes tomorrow, isn't there a nice festival hurdle for 0-120 rated horses or am I being cynical?
Yeah you're right ROTO he has 3 rides. What's up with the RP site then!? He is owned by one I K Johnson so maybe it's a family affair but if he really has no chance then maybe Dickie will show up a pound or two over? Got to be worth a check, stranger things have happened on handicap debut....
I've had a small bet at 25s as it certainly looks like he's doing 10 stone for a reason for his mother. I've no idea how easy he finds to do 10 stone but surely considering he hasn't done lower then it must be his bare minimum
4.15 Taunton Posh Emily 9/1 NAP Although I'm slightly concerned about the heavy ground, I think there is a very good chance that Ron Hodges 10 year old mare may well be a bit of a plot with cheekpieces reapplied for the first time this season, from 7lb below her last winning mark, at a course where she goes well, on her lowest mark since November 2009 and back up in trip. Posh Emily's last win came back in November 2011 off a mark of 97 at the track over 2m1f under todays pilot Nick Scholfield when she was flying at the death as she got up to score from a NTO winner on good ground wearing todays reapplied cheekpieces and she continued her good form on her next couple of starts. Upped 4lb to a mark of 101, she finished a 1.75L beaten 3rd over todays C+D in a race that has only average form in December 2011 and later that month off a mark of 105 she again ran a valiant 3rd when beaten 6.75L in a race that has worked out a little better (still modest form). For one reason or another, Posh Emily was off the track for a year before making her reappearance in December last year off a mark of 105 and although she hasn't really looked like a winner in waiting in her 4 starts this season,(did shape pretty well when a modest 4th over 2m at Plumpton last month) she has subsequently fallen 15lb to her current mark of 90 which makes her look very well handicapped on her form at the end of last season. It looks extremely interesting to me that the cheekpieces in which all of her good form last season was completed in are reapplied for the first time this season having been absent in her 4 starts this campaign and I definitely feel their addition is hardly a coincidence now on a basement mark, returned to her favourite track and upped in trip again. Despite the heavy ground being a definite concern considering all her winning has come on a sounder surface, she has run some nice races in defeat on proper soft ground and I don't think it will be the deciding factor of whether or not she's good enough to win this. Although Ron Hodges is winnerless under NH Rules since last April, he is much more associated with his flat horses and he's had a couple of winners in recent months in that sphere so I won't be blaming trainer form if she is unable to capitalise on her lowly mark. Looking back through her races, she can often be quite a difficult ride and I'm very happy that Nick Scholfield - who has won on her before - is in the saddle as I think he's an excellent jockey and his previous experience on board Posh Emily could prove invaluable. The Taunton track holds absolutely no fears for this mare as she has recorded 3 wins and 7 places here over a multitude of distances and I'm sure she's going to find her lowest mark in over 3 years and her easiest opposition in the same amount of time hugely advantageous tomorrow. Of her opposition in this 0-95 handicap, there is always a chance that Jonjo's handicap debutant could be on a very good mark but he hasn't really shown much to date and I'd much rather prefer to side with the horse with proven form. Looking back through betting patterns, she's been well backed on course as opposed to throughout the day so if she takes a slide in the market (which would be great!) I'm not going to be overly concerned. If the reapplication of cheekpieces work the oracle in combination with the aforementioned factors, I'm confident of a massive showing from this Posh Emily and if the plot I suspect comes to fruition then hopefully she lands this very winnable contest at a nice price.
Morning, troops. How are we??? Good, good. Well then have the punting punters heard news of the latest ‘psssssssssssssssssssssst horse’ the supposed latest ‘reincarnation of Pegasus’?!? His name is Purple Bay and the word on the street is that he’ll win on debut within the week and then be promoted to favouritism for the ‘Festival Bumper’. Meanwhile, across the county line at Taunton today OSCAR NOMINEE is a big price at 4/1 for the Class 2 Hurdle (3.40), methinks. He has some very decent form (dual winner, Cheltenham Festival placed and 3 lengths off Cinders And Ashes in a Grade 2 event) and if fit enough after almost a year off I would expect him to go close this afternoon. 139 really does not seem an excessive perch for a horse with a CV like his. Mr Henderson also evidently thinks he’s still more than capable as the old boy has a future entry in a Grade 2 heat. Good luck all.
3.40 Oscar Nominee @ 4/1 I think the Nicky Henderson runner is very interesting today, despite having to give lumps of weight away all round. He ran a brilliant race at the festival when finishing third in the Martin Pipe, but what amazed me was how poorly he jumped that day, he was very much on the back foot because of his jumping, but still made up ground and was a shade unlucky to be beaten in the end. He is a lightly raced horse, who obviously had issues over the early season (Tendons I believe) and now returns just before the festival. He returns in a race over perhaps shorter than ideal, but it is on heavy going and that will help him here, he runs off a fair mark and I have doubts about the handicap mark of the Nicholls runner Sametegal who was untested last time out after his rival came down when travelling fairly well in behind. He therefore is a doubt for his handicap debut around his mark, he could be well handicapped but he might just be high enough. I also don't like Chesil or Meganisi and Home Run was poor in defeat last time. A tricky race but I think Oscar Nominee can come away with the gong.
In the 2.00 at Taunton, Paul Nicholls is debuting KAUTO D'ALOES for the same connections that previously owned KAUTO STONE. The gelding was unplaced in two starts over hurdles in France last year, but has a very interesting pedigree, being out of a full-sister to KAUTO STAR and by BYZANTIUM. This makes him very closely (2x2) in-bred to Village Star (sire of both the dam and the sire). Basically speaking, the sire and dam of KAUTO D'ALOES are paternal half-siblings.
