After 24 games last year we had 30 points compared to this year's 40. Also if you take a comparison against the same teams we had played last year we are now one point ahead for the first time Last year In our first 12 games we got 10 points - in our second 12 we got 20 This year we got 16 in our first 12 and 24 in our second 12 Ok - you can go back to sleep now
Decided to see what sort of points totals teams have had in the last ten years at the top end of the table Top spot has averaged 94 points with a high of 106 and a low of 87 Second has been 86 points with 92 and 79 3rd place 81 points with 86 and 75 6th spot averages 74 with high of low 70 (us in 2006) 7th and missing out on play-offs averages 71 with 75 and 67 as high and low Not sure whether this means anything - as with all statistics and averages. However we are currently on 56 with 14 games to go and are averaging 2 points per game now so if we keep that up we should be on or around 84 points. That probably menas top spot will not be us - but Cardiff have to throw that away now not to get it. We are firmly in the range for 2nd place although as shown above 86 points has missed out - twice in fact (West Ham last year) , 85 once and 84 once To get to just 70 points wwe need to average only a point a game - the form achieved by only Bristol City and Peterborough so far this year. My conclusion from all this is that we will at least reach the play offs now without a shadow of doubt - it is almost impossible for us to do that If we continue as we have for the last 5 months we will still be on the border of second and third places. No real surprise in any of that I hear you say - but it is always useful to have a target and ours needs to be at least 86 points - which means we can only afford to drop another 12 poiints
Thanks Leo, Hull, Leicester and Cardiff all to be played, and providing we can keep our form and gathering of points from the other matches, those three games will sort matters out I reckon. Do you think we are safe from relegation yet?
I think, if we continue our good form against the other teams, these three games will decide if we go up automatically or not. 9 points at steak agains teams in the top 6. It could make a big difference potentially.
I'm in complete agreement at 84 points. I attach a post I wrote on a separate thread (run-in), with a bit more along te same lines. " Based on the form over last 10 games of each of the top 6 clubs, extrapolated to the season end we would get... Cardiff 101.5 WFC 86.8 (not 84, as we are 22 from last 10 = 2.2 ) Hull 84.2 Foxes 80.2 Pal'se 73.2 boro 62.6 If it was that simple, then following the game wouldn't be much fun, but it keeps me cheerful. Now, I also believe the following (esp. having been at City ground and St. Andrews) ... 1) Our squad is stronger in performance terms for having made no changes in January. 2) Our defence is improving every game (in theory we had a complete 2nd string back 3 yesterday, which looked pretty comfortable) 3) If every team lost its top scorer , we would have the divisions = top scorer (Deeney/Nugent) " Oh what the hell - if we finish above Foxes we'll be 2nd. There. will that do ?
Been running a few stats based on recent games - last five average / last 10 average etc and it does not make such good reading Last 5 would lead to 1 Cardiff 89 points 2 Nottm F 84 2 Hull 78 4 Crystal P 75 5 Watford 74 6 Brighton 70 Last 10 average 1 Cardiff 91 2 Hull 82 3 Watford 80 4 Crystal P 77 5 Nottm F 75 6 Brighton 71 Combining the two 1 Cardiff 90 2 Hull 80 3 Nottm F 79 4 Watford 77 5 Crystal P 76 6 Brighton 71 we now have to hope Hull slip up today and we get a result there and that Forest's 6 game winning run comes to an end
i hate relying on other people's results but if that's what it takes, so be it! Come on Huddersfield and Brighton! The good thing is, Nottingham Forest should get MotM
It looks like just as tight down the bottom. What do the stats say about who will go down and stay up?
I was looking at the stats this morning.... and as it stands we should make the playoff..... UNLESS.... IF........ AND.....
Very few things are impossible - although try opening a can of beans with a banana skin - but it is nearly impossible for us to miss the play offs unless we collapse completely. Seventh place Leicester would have to gain 8 points on us in 7 games. That will not happen. It will come down to form and bottle in the play offs
Leo, if Leicester were to beat us, that's 5 points in 6 which is possible. Also, look at the PL las season, when City were 8 points behind United with 6 to play, although we do have the advantage that United didn't in that there are 3 other teams between us and Leicester.
Leicester have won 1 drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last ten - I cannot see them winning many more - especially as they still have to play us, Brighton, in form local rivals Birmingham, Bolton, Palace and Forest - a tough ask to get almost any points
The weekend results have now confirmed Cardiff as almost certain Champions likely to get 89 points Hull 80.0 and Watford 79.6 are statistically now too close to call for second and third places. Forest have "relaxed" back to 4th with 75 Palace 5th on 72 Brighton 6th 68 points Leicester are now right back on 61 with Bolton and others more likely to finish ahead of them. In fact Bolton could be dark horses for a late run in to the play offs with winnable games against Wolves, Bristol City, Leicester, Middlesbrough and Blackpool - but away to Cardiff. 5 wins and 15 points would give them 72 and a real chance.
Here is another way of looking at the run in, based on how teams have done v others in the top six. Watford :: 16 points (5 win, 1 draw, 3 loss) - remaining fixture Cardiff (H) Brighton :: 15 points (4 win, 3 draw, 3 loss) Palace :: 13 points (3 win, 4 draw, 3 loss) Cardiff :: 10 points (3 win, 1 draw, 3 loss) - remaining fixtures Watford (A), Forest (H), Hull (A) Hull :: 10 points (3 win, 1 draw, 5 loss) - remaining fixture Cardiff (H) Forest :: 10 points (2 win, 4 draw, 3 loss) - remaining fixture Cardiff (A) Our three losses all came in the first 20 matches of the season - since then we have won 4 and drawn 1 against other top six teams.
Palace and Hull look like they have the easier run-in. Our run-in looks difficult tbh - but I sense that the Hull result and the impending return of Almunia will be the confidence booster to see us home........... Cardiff on the otherhand have to play us, Hull & Forest so stats are one thing - pressure and mental strength another - and we know what they've done in previous seasons don't we?
