Saturday 16th Feb Racing Thread

Good luck ROTO, I'll be against you in that race with 12-1 Ashkazar

 

2.30 Wincanton

Old Tricks 14/1

Although this looks a very tricky contest on paper, I think Colin Tizzard's 6 year old has a very good chance of at least making the frame off a mark of 122 at a course where he goes really well at with a first time tongue tie applied. A winner of a bumper on his 2nd start at the course on soft ground back in December 2011, Old Tricks left behind a moderate debut over hurdles to run an excellent 2nd behind his pretty comfortable winning stablemate Theatre Guide as the pair pulled miles clear of the remainder (this card last year). Again at Wincanton over 2m, Old Tricks sat prominent throughout and he battled on really well up the run in to ensure his stablemate was made to have a race. Theatre Guide has made up into a very promising chaser and he lost very little in defeat last February. Of those in behind, the comprehensively beaten 3rd Moorland Sunset wasn't beaten all that far in a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 121 and the 4th Grandioso has since won a handicap hurdle off a mark of 118 before developing into a very promising chaser this season. Old Tricks returned to tomorrow's venue over that same C+D a month later when scoring in good fashion in what looks a very average Maiden. Sitting just in behind the lead, Old Tricks hit the front from about 2 out and when Colin Tizzard drew the whip he extended his lead up the run in to score in convincing fashion by 6L. The form of the horses in behind isn't great but he did it readily and you can only beat what is in front of you. Old Tricks's final start of last season came in April last year when pulled up in the Grade 2 Mersey Novices Hurdle at the Aintree Festival and that race was clearly out of his sphere of ability.

Old Tricks started this season on the back of a 7 month absence over fences at what seems his track of choice but after just 2 runs his chasing career was at least abandoned for the time being as he didn't take to the larger obstacles, the latest in December. Rather than allow his charge's season to be curtailed, Colin Tizzard sent his 6 year old back over hurdles last month where I thought he ran a race full of encouragement on his handicap debut off tomorrow's mark of 122. At his favoured venue over 2m4f, Old Tricks sat in behind the pace on the rail under tomorrow's pilot Brendan Powell Jnr and he had to be niggled slightly a few times throughout the race. Swinging into the home turn, Old Tricks was getting shoved along in about 5th place but he stayed on very well up the long home straight to take 2nd after the final flight but he looked as if he was wandering around a bit as he got caught for the runners up spot late on by the fast finishing Oscar Prairie to finish 7.25L behind the winner Gevrey Chambertain. Gevrey Chambertain was the definition of a handicap blot that day and although the very inconsistent runner up has been under par since then, given that the 4th Landscape had scored off the same mark a week prior I'm sure the form was good. In addition, given that it was Old Tricks's first completed run in 9 months and his first run over hurdles since the previous season (jumped big and bold at a couple of hurdles) I certainly feel he would improve for that very good effort. Upped 2lb for that run, I thought Old Tricks ran a very eye catching 7th over an inadequate 17f at Cheltenham at the end of January where he came from a mile back to run on very well up the hill. In a race that massively suited those that were prominent, Brendan Powell never seemed overly comfortable on Old Tricks who seemed to struggle to go the pace at the rear of the field and he had to be rousted along from quite a way out. Heading into the home straight, Old Tricks was an awful long way back from the principles but he made up an awful lot of ground up the home straight as he powered all the way to the line to be beaten nearly 20L. I am convinced that that race is going to turn out to be very strong form given I felt Mr Watson was a handicap blot and the 3rd Quaddick Lake would have definitely won impressively off a 3lb higher mark on his only subsequent start if not for being extremely badly hampered in the race.

Despite the distance beaten, I thought that was a really encouraging effort over a trip too short and in a race that wasn't run to suit and there is no surprise that Old Tricks is upped in trip to 2m6f tomorrow. I also think he's going to appreciate the return to Wincanton where he goes very well where, in addition to his bumper victory, he has a record of 2-1-3 at the track over hurdles. Eased in grade to a Class 3, I find the application of a first time tongue-tie fascinating given that he has never shaped as if he is a horse with a breathing issue but the Tizzard's obviously feel it will bring out some improvement and hopefully it does just that. The handicapper has been pretty kind to drop him back 2lb to the mark of 122 where he finished 3rd last month on his handicap debut and I definitely feel he is on a workable mark. Brendan Powell Jnr, who was on board the last twice, takes off a very handy 3lb and testing conditions will suit this 6 year old in tomorrows contest. Although this looks like a pretty tricky and open contest, I definitely feel the in form Colin Tizzard's charge is on a good mark and Wincanton is a venue he goes very well at. It is very much worth noting that Colin Tizzard ran riot on this day last year with an across the cards 5 timer (including a couple of 1-2 finishes at this meeting) and that has to be viewed as a massive positive for Old Tricks chances. This represents a much easier task than his latest assignment and hopefully he proves to be best horse on the day to land this Class 3 contest.

 

Cheers Bluesky, I had noticed and accordingly had put him in my comp selections today.
It's amazing when I look back at my losers how many go in the next time and sometimes run up a sequence.
Good example THECORNISHCOCKNEY (still improving).

 

The reason I believe you cant find him Reebs is that we havent had a declaration stage for the Festival Bumper yet.
CAPTAIN CUTTER beat Knights Palace at Ascot and that horse is quoted in four bookmakers books for the Festival Bumper but as he ran in a novice hurdle at Ayr two weeks ago (fell at last) he is no longer qualified! I wonder how many of those would refund your stake. Absolute disgrace!

 

Morning Guys:

Lingfield today I fancy the following:

1.10 Red To Amber 5/1
1.40 Con Leche 5/1
2.50 Hadeeth 7/2
4.00 Mias Boy 9/2


And my value EW Bet


4.00 Lord Of The Shadows 11/1

Good luck today guys

 

PROBLEMA TIC a NON RUNNER 2.40 Ascot which will mean a few rule 4's!

 

Thanks for the welcome all,

Another I have had a little tickle on is one at Haydock 4.40 Knock A Hand 14/1 fluffed his lines as a chaser but was a good hurdler last season winning once at this course on heavy ground, blinkers are tried today which may spark him back to life.


Up against your selection in the 4.00 I see Stick, I will do a rf/c on ours for cover.

 

Morning friends.
My lucky 15 today,
Ascot-2-05=Rocky Creek.
Haydock Park-2-20=Trustan Times.
" " -2-55=Rigadin De Beauchene.
Wincanton-3-35=Zarkandar.
Also a small wager on Ghizao,Ascot=3-50.
Good luck to all.

 

Unoriginal but a Win Lucky 63 on these

WINCANTON 15:35
Zarkandar @ 4/9 (GP)

GOWRAN PARK 15:10
Zaidpour @ 4/5 (GP)

HAYDOCK 16:05
Ohio Gold @ 5/2 (GP)

HAYDOCK 15:25
Two Rockers @ 2/1 (GP)

ASCOT 15:50
Captain Chris @ 5/2 (GP)

ASCOT 13:30
Up And Go @ 2/1 (GP)

 

Also did an E/W Lucky 15 on these

LINGFIELD 16:00 HANDICAP (
Alfred Hutchinson @ 15/2 (GP)

LINGFIELD 14:50
Methaaly @ 15/2 (GP)

ASCOT 15:15
Top Of The Range @ 14/1 (GP)

HAYDOCK 14:55
Cannington Brook @ 9/1 (GP)

 

Theres a pub right next to the station too so if you miss time the train you can pop in for a pint !

 

4.25 Ascot: RIVER MAIGUE 11/8 (NAP)

I know he has to concede 9lb to Far West of Paul Nicholls, but I have vastly differing outlooks on their respective formlines and that is the main reason I favour the Nicky Henderson horse.

Far West has been visually impressive. He's a striking individual and I'll be amazed if he doesn't end up making a chaser. He has won his three hurdle races by an aggregate margin of 38 lengths, and of course is a promising juvenile hurdler. However, on two of those occasions he was facing Alan Kings Handazan, who is simply nowhere near Triumph Hurdle level and has been well beaten since in a novice event won by Calculated Risk- another horse who has just simply not cut the mustard since. Remember, much of Far West's price for the Triumph comes from the timing of his runs- he was oine of the real early season juvenile stars and therefore he has always been prominent in the betting with his visually impressive displays. I actually think the stablemate at Paul Nicholls yard (Irish Saint) would be better than him, and he has already been beaten cosily by the hugely promising ROLLING STAR.

RIVER MAIGUE on the other hand has formlines that now tie right into the top of the Supreme Novice picture and crucially looks to be improving with each start, which is a huge factor to have on side as we head towards Cheltenham. He was just outdone by a Ruby Walsh masterclass at Cheltenham at the autumn as Dodging Bullets stole one from the front, but it was clear that day River Maigue would relish a better pace and the way he stayed on and found up the Cheltenham hill was most encouraging. He is a massive player in a Supreme Novice and I for one think he is a huge price for that race, having already proven his handling of the track and actually looking an unlucky loser (came wide 2 out, trapped for room at the last, stayed on well). I will put it out there that I think he will beat My Tent Or Yours around Cheltenham. MTOY is a fantastic prospect, but he will surely pull too hard around Cheltenham and I am not convinced that track will play to any of his strengths. No way on this earth. Not this season.

River Maigue at Kempton looked better the quicker they went, and he stretched clear of New Years Eve on the run in to score by 9 lengths. He pulled a bit himself that day but when it quickened up he really got into a smashing rhythm and it will stand him in good stead in a Supreme Novice. He really ought to be able to stalk Far West all the way round here, except the difference this time is that Far West does not have the speed or turn of foot to shake him off like Dodging Bullets did, and I think River Maigue will win this on the way to his Supreme Novice engagement in just under a months time.

 

Come on captain chris but no bet in that race. Big each way on teaforthree and each way on Cannington brook. Obrien and Tizzard have a recent 80% strike rate at Haydock so be warned!!

 

1.45 Haydock VEAUCE DE SIVOLA - I've noted this down as 'Nick Williams improvers'. What I mean by this is that Williams has a really good record with hurdlers on their second start of the season- they tend to really come on for their first run. Veauce De Sivola was green as grass on debut but all of a sudden the penny dropped and he stormed through late against some useful types to go down an unlucky loser by a nose. If he has learnt from that experience, he ought to be able to run to a pretty smart level here and looking at the opposition, I thinnk he can stay on strongly and take this contest at a really fair price.

3.10 Gowran: SO YOUNG - An interesting fact that you may not be aware of is that So Young is unbeaten over the minimum trip and has a superb record on soft ground. I think this is ripe for an upset, as good as Zaidpour is. So Youg has been improving back towards his best form all season whereas Zaidpour has had some hard races.

3.15 Ascot: THE BEAR TRAP 4/1- Tony McCoy getting down to 10st 4 here- always worth noting at the very least. The horse won hard held on the bridle at Ffos Las two starts ago and went down by a neck at that same venue. Better ground conditions today should see the upward curve continue and looks really well in at this low weight.

3.50 Ascot: CUE CARD- With such a small field, this fellow might just be able to go and dominate from the front. His jumping has always been best when allowed to bowl along and he almost beat BOB'S WORTH giving him weight at Newbury over a similar distance 12 months ago. I can see him in a pretty big lead here and he is the real fly in the ointment because of his natural speed and confirmed ability to stay 2 and a half miles well enough. Captain Chris had a very, very hard race in the King George and I think he will use this a stepping stone to a solid Cheltenham performance (he was 2nd prior to winning the Arkle in 2011). Finians Rainbow I just cannot see staying, and he should revert back to a Champion Chase in March to rightly (IMO) defend his crown. Somersby will be there or thereabouts, as is usually the case at Ascot, but may have found Cue Card got a bigger lead than they would like, and fail to catch him.