Leo Luna ought to make a nice handicap hurdler at some point- I thought there was promise there especially in its first maiden Tough introduction today but you never know!
1.15 Leopardstown: OUR CONNOR 4/1 Has looked a really interesting juvenile hurdler this season and there was much to like about the way he travelled, quickened, and most importantly stayed on strongly when winning LTO against Stocktons Wing. There looked to be a lot more to come and I think he can outbattle the Mullins pairing in a fight up the home straight. 2.15 Leopardstown: LEGAL EXIT 10/1 Very much a big step up here, but having really beaten Urano comfortably last time out and having improved his jumping markedly, he is potentially better than NED BUNTLINE on that formline and with the extra 2f almost certain to suit, I think Jim Culloty underplaying his chances as a novice hurdler this year may prove fruitful in giving us an overpriced animal against Champagne Fever with it all to prove and Waaheb yet to prove he can hurdle fluently enough to take a Grade One. He should stay on stronger than anything. 3.35 Newbury: COTTON MILL 8/1 Drying ground in his favour, proven stamina beyond 2m will help in a frantic 2m handicap like this (a la Zarkandar 2012), trainer looking to test if he has an honest Champion Hurdle runner. Superb Neptune form (Simonsig, Monksland) having travelled well for over 2m before ducking at a hurdle, and looks set to run a huge race if hurdling well. An uncomplicated ride usuall and can take up the running half a mile from home. VILLAGE VIC 25/1 (Exchanges) This is a monster price and I think he may well have been laid out for this ever since his 2 and a half length defeat to THE NEW ONE at Cheltenham earlier this season. He was outstayed that day and they dropped him back to some hot 2m novice company. He seemed to struggle on the ground for my money, and with the ground drying, he looks a nailed on improver in a fast race run to suit, and off a fantastic mark of 131. Possibly the best handicapped horse of the race and a major each-way interest.
Newbury 1.50 - Sivola de Sivola (NB) 9/1 Newbury 3.00 - French Opera 7/2 Leop 2.15 - Champagne Fever 9/4 Leop 2.45 - Lyreen Legend (NAP) 9/2 - Gobbled that up like a hungry hungry hippo! Leop 3.20 - Flemenstar 5/4
2.50 Uttoxeter Kilcommon Pride 16/1 I think 16/1 vastly underestimates the chances of Roger Curtis's 8 year old who was extremely progressive over fences last year and if stripping fitter for his recent reappearance run at Ffos Las on the back of a 10 month absence then I think he's going to run a massive race off a mark of 111 with conditions looking ideal. Showing absolutely nothing in 8 starts in bumpers and over hurdles in his early career, connections landed a monster punt on his debut over fences in November 2011 (also handicap debut) when supported from a morning price of 25/1 into an SP of 4/1 as he won by 53L off his opening mark of 73 and it was clear he was miles ahead of the handicapper. Under a 7lb penalty a week later, he disappointed in 3rd in a race that clearly came too soon for him but a month later he subsequently trounced his opposition off his revised mark of 87 by 16L with the runner up winning NTO. The handicapper again did not take kindly to this rout as he upped him 13lb to a mark of 100 and after losing nothing in defeat to a likely Jonjo O'Neill handicap blot on his 4th last start in January last year he resumed winning ways in good fashion despite being raised to a mark of 104 at Ffos Las 12 months ago. Again in testing conditions he relishes so much, Kilcommon Pride adopted his traditional tactics of sitting prominent and he stayed on well to defeat chasing debutant Flying Award in what I think was a rather comfortable 1.5L victory, with the pair pulling over 20L clear of the remainder. The form of that race looks strong with the runner up scoring on his next start 6 days later off the same mark and he has since won twice more and is rated 14lb higher (you'd have to expect Flying Award to improve for that initial debut experience). That victory took Kilcommon Pride to 3-5 over fences and he lost very little in defeat in his final start of last season back in March at Haydock when upped 8lb to a mark of 112. On the good to soft ground (he loves it really soft), Kilcommon pride sat prominent under tomorrow's regular pilot Hadden Frost before he looked a little outpace over the 3m trip (which I would put down to the ground) as he made a mistake at 4 out that cost him some momentum and saw him drop about 5L off the leader. However, in doggedly determined fashion, Kilcommon Pride battled on to get back to the leaders as he narrowly went down by 1L. The form of that race looks ok with the runner up running a very nice 3rd on his reappearance in a race that has worked out well and Kilcommon Pride's performance suggested he was not yet done improving. More relevant to tomorrow, current favourite Good Order was well beaten when making a bad mistake at 3 out where he was pulled up in this race and I think the price disparity between that rival and Kilcommon Pride is ridiculous as the latter is actually 1lb better off for tomorrow's contest and both have only had 1 start subsequently which was both their seasonal reappearances this year. Kilcommon Pride made it back to the track to Ffos Las last month on the back of a 10 month absence in atrocious conditions. According to Curtis's website, Frost's instructions were to "not get hard with when his chance was gone" and I feel that is certainly what he did as Kilcommon Pride was pulled up before 3 out in what looked the ideal blow out to get him back to race fitness. Although he didn't exactly look like a winner in waiting LTO, he certainly ran well for quite a long way on his first start for nearly a year and Frost certainly took care of him and was not unduly hard on him. I feel that should have put him absolutely spot on for tomorrow's contest and the handicapper has been kind to drop him 1lb back to a mark of 111 for that effort. Given that he was on such a vast upward curve last year, I certainly see no reason why Kilcommon Pride cannot resume his progression this year at only 8 years old and prior to his recent run he had never been out of the frame in his first 6 starts over fences, winning half of them. Being only 7lb above his last winning mark and actually 1lb below his final narrow defeat last season, I certainly think he is on a good mark and if he's improved as a hose from last year then I feel he could be on a very good mark. He'll absolutely relish the testing conditions tomorrow and if this turns into a stamina test it will be right up his street given that he he's already won over an extended 25f. This represents Roger Curtis's only runner of the day and he appears to have his NH horses in fine order with a record of 2-5 last month and this also represents Hadden Frost's only ride of the afternoon. If all goes to plan tomorrow, I am very confident of a massive showing from Kilcommon Pride and despite his double figure price tag I firmly believe he is the horse they all have to beat.
Worth pointing out that Lac Fontana is getting 16 POUNDS from Chatterbox in the opener at Newbury. Whilst Chatterbox looked impressive when beating My Tent Or Yours, the 3rd home that day, Best Boy Barney, has hardly advertised the form and it was a muddling race run on atrocious ground. Nicholls is typically circumspect in his Betfair column: "This looks a pretty difficult introduction for him, but he gets the 4yo allowance and he showed a pretty decent level of form over middle distances on the Flat in France. He looks a nice prospect, which is why we have left him in the Triumph, and has done a lot of work in the indoor school. But because of the weather we haven't been able to get as much schooling on the grass as I would have liked, so in that respect I would expect him to improve enormously for the experience today. It would be nice to believe that he could be another Zarkandar for his owners and still be Triumph-bound after this, but that is probably wishful thinking. Anyway, let's see what the racecourse tells us today. Chatterbox is the one to beat, and will probably be hard to beat.
Just heard on The Morning Line of Darlan having a fatal fall at Doncaster this week, he would've been a leading contender for the Champion Hurdle, a big loss for connections.
Has an outstanding chance it must be said. What a betting heat this race always turns out to be. I fancy Swing Bowler. Beautifully bred and is an improving type. Timmy Murphy putting in the extra to do the weight and the better ground likely to suit as well as Newburys long straight. I am on each way at 12s. I have also put a small each way bet on Baby Mix at 33-1 . Cant believe this horse is 33s.. some of his form last season was outstanding and the better ground will suit at Newbury. These are my only 2 bets of the day. Good luck everyone!!
According to some dodgy blog I found, these are the Pricewise picks today. Of course I cannot guarantee the accuracy of this information: Newbury 1.50 - Rangitoto 8/1 Leopardstown 2.15 - Buthelezi 8/1 Newbury 2.25 - Menorah 8/1 Newbury 3.35 - Claret Cloak 14/1 Could be utter bollocks of course, none of them are blue on oddschecker
Scoop 6 EW lucky 63: 1:30 Warwick - Silver Gypsy 9/1 1:50 Newbury - Sivola De Sivola 15/2 2:05 Warwick - Hey Big Spender 13/2 3:00 Newbury - Wishfull Thinking 5/2 3:15 Warwick - Turbo Du Ranch 14/1 3:35 Newbury - Swing Bowler 11/1
These in an E/W Lucky 31 for me. Decent racing today both sides of the water WARWICK 12:55 Extremely So @ 6/1 (GP) LEOPARDSTOWN 13:45 Backinthere @ 10/1 (GP) NEWBURY 13:50 Sivola De Sivola @ 15/2 (GP) NEWBURY 15:35 Cash And Go @ 8/1 (GP) LEOPARDSTOWN 15:50 Rocky Wednesday @ 11/1 (GP)
Araldur, the giant that he is, can win today at Newbury at 16/1, or at the very least I expect a place so e/w on him Also, seeing as we all miss our Tote Place master, grab a little bit on Junior to finish in the top 3 in the 8 runner Denman Chase
I love the chances of Wishful Thinking at 3s. And now to get stuck into the big one (Betfair Hurdle). This could take some time.
15:35 Newbury - Pearl Swan (Really do fancy this French-bred. As long as he does not get too far behind early on, has a real chance in this wide-open handicap. By my modest standards, have had a real bash at this one. Hopefully, just hopefully, a pearl from...........nevermind ). Hmm, agree with George's comment below - have had e/w saver on Caid Du Berlais.
Caid Du Berlais at 22s my selection. Pearl Swan very tempting but Ruby couldn't do the weight for this one so he hasn't passed it over as such. Keep a close eye on Ruacana in the 1.15 Grade 1 hurdle at Leops, close form ties with Caid Du Berlais.
I think the 3/1 about wishfull thinking is massive today. He did seem to go out like a light last time after travelling very strongly but the ground was heavy that day and he has had problems with his breathing in the past so has always been quite hit and miss. Clearly comes with risks attached but if he is on a going day then he wins this easily for me
Morning guys, a couple of fancies on the all weather which are weighted to go close and a couple of big priced fancies ver the umps for no reason apart from the Wayward factors : Lingfield 3.10 Welease Bwian 8/1 (EW) 3.45 Thunderball 10/1 (EW) NAP 4.45 Sanfranksipgo 10/1 (EW) Wolverhampton 9.20 Copperwood 14/1 (EW) Newbury 1.15 Leo Luna 25/1 (EW) - formerly with SMS, and FTO for a stable that can turn out a winner at a big price. 3.35 Baby Mix 33/1 (EW) (NB)- not done a lot since dissapointing at Chelteham in the Triumph Hurdle last year, however, i think theres a big race win in him and at 33/1 with 5 places and a quarter of the odds for a place a worth a little bit of my money . Good luck today guys
Betfair Hurdle, one from the top and one from the bottom both ew: Cause of Causes @. 16/1 joint top weight with Petit Robin's jockey claim, but I'm not convinced he hasn't got a bit more improvement in him. Ingleby Spirit @ 80/1 intrigues me. His hurdle career to date doesn't inspire great confidence but he gets a 6 lb pull with Swing Bowler for a 4 length beating at Musselburgh. Another one for a small ew is Mark the Book @ 25/1, Uttox 2.50. Veteran chaser but with relatively few miles on the clock and back to a mark where he has been competitive in the past. Finally I'd accept nil return on my bets (I'm getting used to it!) to see Flemenstar prevail at Leopardstown. I'd still like to see him line up against Sprinter at Cheltenham and a loss here would make that more likely but bollox to that today. Come on the Star, get your trainer of the bridle again!
