During the course of each season I do a league points forecast for the Gills. For this season I predicted we would pick up a total of 83 points this season, generally border line for auto promotion. Having updated my tracker the Gills are currently 2 points ahead of my target: Points predicted at this stage: 49 (excluding postponed games) League Two points actual: 51 Largest points variance positive last 16 games: 3 Largest points variance negative last 16 games: 3 Therefore indications at 26 games purely based on my own personal forecasts, would suggest we will achieve between 80-86 points, an additional 35 points at the top end of that scale from a total of 60 points available. This should be enough to gain us a playoff place but remains border line for autos. Caution should certainly be applied as this exact time last season Southend, Crawley and Cheltenham were all joint top of the league each having played 26 games and accrued 52 points, one point more than the Gills currently have. We all know what happened to two of those teams! Although actual season form would indicate a further 39 points taking us to 90 points but that would mean we would need to replicate the previous 26 game form. How many points do you predict the Gills will achieve this season?
35 points from 60 is fewer than would be gained from a win at home and a draw away for the rest of the season. You say that 39 points from the remaining games will be achievable if we replicate our current form - well - did we really expect such a great away form to date ?-Will it continue ? Did we expect such a poor home record for a team 2nd in the league ? -We hope that it greatly improves ! 35 or even 39 points from 20 games is the 'average' expectation for any team looking for promotion - so - your suggestion of anything up to 90 points is not unrealistic -however - We can't rely on the continuation of the away results to prop up our home tally - that is why the next 3 home games should yield maximum points - to get us playing at home as a team at the top should - then we can have the luxury of playing for a point on our travels. So I believe that we'll get about 85-90 points - but maybe not in the same way as we've got our current tally.
I think we will maintain our average points per game or even increase them with a couple of additional players in the January window. What tends to throw a spanner in the works,so to speak, is that come end of March, beginning of April, there are a number of teams that have nothing to play for, and they often roll over thinking of their holidays.It depends how many of those teams us and the other promotion hopefuls have to play ,that will decide our final points total. Anyway, I think we will get 90 points.
alwaysright - I said 39 points was achievable if we replicated our previous 26 game form. Not current form. If we replicate our current form (last six games) we would achieve around 33 points taking us to a season total of 84 points. Southend last season achieved 83 points but finished fourth with Crawley taking the remaining auto place on 84 points. So we could get promoted by just winning 11 of our remaining 20 games (exc draws) on current form, any improvement to that form will add more certainty to the situation and your belief of 85-90 points. Although I will stick with my 80-86 and borderline until I see that improvement, as gioblues said depends on the next three home games.
The scientific answer... 21 points from 13 home games = 1.61 points per games. 10 home games remaining x 1.61 = 16 points 30 points from 13 away games = 2.3 points per game 10 away games remaning x 2.3 = 23 points This gives another 39 points till te end of the season. Thus final points tally = 39 + 51 = 90 points Simple.... on paper... but as my old dad used to say 'they don't play football on paper!!'
brb how is the 83 point prediction doing in light of recent results ? Are you able to put up your predictions for the rest of the season ?
We are still on course. Currently standing at 82 points but a point minus or plus averages itself out. BUT, I built in a lot of negatives around this period, I must be psychic - the big challenge starts from the Oxford game until end of season, when a lot of positive results have been built in for the final hurdle. I need to update my table before publishing the details but we CAN afford loses against Bradford and Chesterfield although that will just add more pressure to ensure we get the results from Oxford onwards and will only allow us to drop a further total of 12 points for the season from that period on. Although I hasten to repeat I really need to check my figures to confirm for sure, I will try and do it over the weekend.
Well judging on current form and the general feeling around the supporters I would say we will end the season on 51 points
We are not that bad I think the big concern here is that we could be heading towards the playoff lottery at this rate, dependent on the required points for the autos, when we should have been comfortably securing our position by March if we were to believe all the previous MA positivity or should that be hype.
At the beginning of the season I would have happily taken a playoff place, wouldn't you? I think the dazzling start to the season and subsequent drop in form is skewwing people's view of the situation.
Last 10 games have totalled 15 points out of possible 30 (1.5 points per game) 17 games to go = 25.5 points + 55 = 80.5 points
there is one fascinating by-product of the recent decline which is that I do not believe anyone has the faintest idea what is going to happen in the remaining games. I would not be the least bit surprised if the Gills picked up a further thirty odd points nor would I be the slightest surprised if we failed to get fifteen.
In the mid 70s, the press tagged the Gills 'the most consistently inconsistent team in the division......' At home this season, it appears to be true.
On current form cannot see us getting over 25 more points so 80 is what i think. If we can get 2 more away wins this week I then feel we can hopefully get over 80 points which would secure promotion. Does anyone know whats the most wins away from home that has not secured promotion? We must surely get the record this season for this season as we already have 9, lets hope we are not breaking the first record.
alwaysright - back to your earlier question now I have had further chance to look at my stats which gave a pre-season forecast of 83 points. Currently at this stage I forecast 56 points and we have 55 points on the table. Bradford - 0 - 56 (55) York - 0 - 56 Dag & Red - 3 - 59 Chesterfield - 0 - 59 Oxford - 3 - 62 Aldershot - 3 - 65 Plymouth - 3 - 68 Exeter - 1 - 69 Morecambe - 1 - 70 Rochdale - 0 - 70 Accrington - 3 -73 Fleetwood - 1 - 74 Rotherham - 3 - 77 Torquay - 1 - 78 Cheltenham - 1 - 79 Wimbledon - 3 - 82 Burton - 1 - 83 Don't focus solely on the outcomes but how the points may tally overall. Meaning, current variance of -1 with a season variance between -3 to +3, therefore the current points expectation is now 79-85 having dropped from 80-86 in about a 3 week period, this is due to an overall loss of 3 points against the mentioned gain on 20/01/13. Casting my eye back over those forecasts, two things that my mind is questioning is a Rotherham win and the Oxford/Aldershot/Plymouth max points. We really need to take some points against Bradford or York to take the pressure off that area and the final run in, if we could take at least 2-4 points in those two games I would be pretty confident of achieving the 83 point target. However, is that enough for autos? If we do achieve 83 points I am going to so wished I had put a bet on it pre-season, wonder what odds I would have got.
