Update : January 31st A look at how things have changed since December 17th when I started this thread. 20th QPR. Still propping up the league as 'arry prepares to stake all his (Or more accurately Fernandes') chips on a final throw of the dice.Rangers have gained just six points since the middle of last month and home to Norwich on saturday is a genuine must win.Despite claims that they are catching us they remain eleven points behind.My original estimate of 36 points is looking a trifle ambitious now.Odds of 8/11 on for the drop virtually unchanged from 7/10. 19th Wigan. Gained 5 points since last time Odds for the drop have shortened very slightly to 6/4 against.Their position is probably offset by their reputation as perenial survivors. 18th Villa. The big,big losers here.Just two points gained with a massive hit to their goal difference since December. Odds gone from 4/1 against to 4/6 on.If momentum is important Villa have stalled and are dead in the water. 17th Reading.Big,big gainers thanks to the LeFondre late show.Gone from 9 points to 20.Odds though are still only 1/2 on improved from 2/9 16th Saints. A decent 8 point haul and a vastly inproved defensive record has seen odds move from 11/10 to 21/10 It's looking increasing like the relegated teams will come from these five.Bad quote of the season on Villa in my first assessment. "Looking like a better,more cohesive side just now" - They had just got a 1-3 result at Anfield.
as 'arry prepares to stake all his (Or more accurately Fernandes') chips on a final throw of the dice __________________________-- Spot on with your Qpr assessment though!
Once again Villa make another U turn 20th QPR looking dead and buried,now 1/4 on for the drop.Of course it won't be a certainty for a while yet,they could still reach 53 points.But realistically they need six wins from their last twelve games.That would give them 35.Paradoxically QPR going on a run would raise the points needed for survival because the points projections are predicated on them being one of the bottom three.So if they are to survive probably need seven wins or six plus three draws.Realistic? 19th Wigan.Looking worse for the pie eaters.They have slipped back to 3/4 on. 18th Reading.Back in the bottom three despite a great Lefondre inspired run.Another slight improvement in their odds but still 8/13 on. 17th Villa. Beating West Ham have moved them to 2/1 against. It is looking increasingly likely that the three relegated teams will come from these four.16th placed Saints are now 7/1 against.Norwich are 9/1,Newcastle 13/1. West Ham at 17/1 looks the best outside bet given the fact that their only win in recent history came with the help of Mark Clattenburg against us.
i'd personally be amazed if 36 points isn't enough to stay up this year. i would also agree that qpr are gone now. people will see the point difference and think 'they can easily make that up' but fact is it isn't as simple as that - they would need to keep winning and i don't think they will do that. wigan are in as much trouble as they were last season but this time they don't have an inspired victor moses to call upon. i think reading have had a cracking run of late but inevitably they won't be able to keep that up till the end of the season - their form will tail off sooner rather than later while villa are easily picked off by teams exploiting their weakness at corners and set pieces. the bottom three will consist of three of these four teams in my opinion. as a betting man, i'd guess most would probably go for villa to pull themselves out of a hole on the final day at wigan, sending them down instead, but i happen to know that villa's record is appalling against the latics, so instead i will go for villa, reading and qpr to drop with wigan performing yet another astonishing escape. for the record, i think we'll get to 40 points.
Agree re QPR,Reading.Just have a sneaking suspicion that the current odds are correct and it's Wigan who will take the third spot.Having said that Villa will probably now go and get done over 8-0 at The Emirates next week just to spite me.
Reading will have a huge say in all this; they have got Villa, QPR and i think Wigan to play all at home. Villa vs Wigan on the final day eh? Tasty.
West Ham have an incredibly hard run in.Of their twelve remaining fixtures eight are against top half teams.Add to that the fact that they are the only team above us that we have gained ground on since this thread began (gap reduced from three points to one).And... Had C**tenburg not reffed our game with them we would have been above them now.West Ham v Reading on Survival Sunday could just be interesteing.
Interesting about West Ham for sure. I recall how everyone said we would drop like a stone last season ala Blackpool the year before. Could West Ham possibly fall that far? I am not so sure, I think they are better than that although it could depend on who is and is not injured between now and May.
Their four fixtures against teams not in the bottom half are Southampton away,which could be tough.At home they are Newcastle which again is not easy,Wigan on April 20th and Reading on the last day.Agreed they only need six points but if their performance at Villa is anything to judge by....
I think West Hams good start will save them. They have been poor for quite some time now, but still have enough quality to pick up a few more wins and that's all they need. It's hard to look past QPR as down, but with 12 games to go as improbable as it is they still have a chance. Beyond QPR, it's still too close to call. Without that win against West Ham, Villa looked in serious trouble. Just goes to show that if one win can make that much of a difference, with 12 games left it's still anyone's guess.
Update Sunday 24th February: The bottom five clubs took just three points between tham from this weekend's fixtures-all of them went to Wigan as Bobby Brown Shoes Pie Eaters trounced ten man Reading 0-3. 20th QPR.Now seven points adrift the R's are 1/6 on for the drop now.It's fair to assume that barring a shock away win at StMary's next week Rangers and their multi million pound mercenaries are Championship bound, 19th Reading. Back down next to bottom they have slipped back at 1/3 on now after their loss at home to Wigan. 18th Villa. It looked for a while like Lambert would leave The Emirates with a shock point,but The Gunners just made it a win they desperately needed with six minutes to spare.Villa the big movers frpm 2/1 against to 5/6 on. 17th Wigan.The movers in the other direction.GD as well as points benefitting from their 0-3 at Reading.Moved from odds on the drop at 3/4 to 2/1 against. 16th Saints. A 4-2 reverse at SJP shows that while they can still score that fragile defence isn't a thing of the past.Their odds have not suffered though -from 7-1 back to 13/2.Maybe factoring in their next game against against QPR,what odds against Ricky Lambert running rings around the ponderous £12million man? Others: Sunderland 15th (15/1) West Ham 14th (15/1) Newcastle 13th (21/1) Norwich 12th (19/1) Of these the only possible contender is West Ham who may accelerate their plummet at home to Spurs tomorrow night.
After Saturday the only thing I would say is that we are looking a hell of a lot better and breathing easier. I never thought we would beat Everton and was looking at wins aginst Reading, Villa and Southampton at home to secure 9 points with a couple fo draws to make 40 and safety. The pressure is off now for the time being and when that is the case we have the mental freedom to play more relaxed football and maybe get some more unexpected points. Old Trafford anyone?
Thanks Cruyff, for all your work on this as it gives a great idea of where it's all heading. Thurnby is right about the pressure being taken off with that win, as well as allowing City to break free of that dour run. The addition of Becchio and Kamara also provides reasons to be confident. I think 36 points will be enough, but will feel safer once City reach 38.
I literally can't see a way for QPR to survive now, barring 3 teams picking up next to no points for the rest of the season. They are 21 points short of the 38 point mark, which should bring safety. That's 5 wins and 6 draws from their 11 remaining fixtures, or 7 wins and 4 defeats. Seeing as they've only one twice so far this season, I think that's a huge ask. If you look at their next 5 or 6 games, they're probably the easiest fixtures they have left: Southampton (A), Sunderland (H), Villa (A), Fulham (A), Wigan (H). Then they've got a couple of trickier ones, and Stoke (H) and Reading (A). With their final 3 games being Newcastle, Arsenal and Liverpool, those 7 fixtures realistically need to yield at least 6 wins. I just can't see it myself.
NP,nice to know it's useful.Of course the odds only tell us where the money is going.I think that is why City are often at shorter odds than their league position suggests that they should be.All the same needing six points to reach the 38 with eleven left to play is most likely somewhere that even the most gung-ho of us would have taken six months back. It seems that the only side to suffer second season syndrome is the one that had first season syndrome.It amazes me when people like Garth Crooks say that it is too early to write off QPR. I suppose they will now have to invent third season syndrome just for us.
Yes.(the bit about QPR not third season syndrome)Quite frankly I was amazed.Now Lawro I could have understood,whistling in the dark.
