Evening all, have had serious computer problems so havent been on for a while properly anyway! After a cracking days racing today- tomorrow across the sea is pretty good too! 13.55 Leopardstown- Binocular 5/1 I know a lot of you when you read this will be like "Is this guy crazy" and yes I probably am but at the Fly's current price there is no value on him at the moment! For horse who we "think" have come back in to form after a disappointing Champion hurdle the 1/4 is a very very short price- which I cant have. Yes he did win comfortably on his re-appearances, we have not seen Binocular- and I reckon Nicky has been waiting to unleash him! On the 1st channel 4 of the new year- Mick Fitz reported that NH had said that binocular is in the greatest shape he has been in for a while. This will be his last season imo of really challenging for the #1 prize in the hurdle category, yes he was disappointing in last years festival but he was given a very strange ride by AP, and depending on how he gets on tomorrow will be interesting to see who AP chooses! Binocular does not have the best reappearance record and will probably come on for the run, but he could have quite easily have a had an easier run to wind his path to the Festival, which makes me think that Henderson has good hopes for him this year. He is not an easy horse to train but he will be able to keep there, there about with Fly and if he doesnt sulk like he can do, he will go very close indeed!
Hopefully it get's the go ahead the weather here at the moment is dreadful, lashing rain and high winds, conditions will be extremely testing if it manages to get the green light.
Can't see anything stopping Mullins / Walsh completing a 4-timer in the first 4 races at Leopardstown: Urano // Zuzka // Pont Alexandre // Hurricane Fly Ayrton Senna win, will probably pay about 11/4
Hope your wrong Oddy! 12.55 Leopardstown Way Up In The Air 9/1 NAP I am a big, big fan of Robert Tyner's 6 year old mare who I think is going to give Zuzka a massive race tomorrow and I'm confident she has the ability to win this. An absolutely massive mare standing 17.2h, I think she's going to make up into a monster chaser next year and whatever she achieves over hurdles is a bonus but there is most definitely a touch of class about her and she comes here on the back of an impressive win in a Maiden Hurdle. After making an impressive debut in a Bumper when finishing 3rd behind a nice sort of Willie Mullins back in November 2011, it may look a bit surprising that it took her 6 attempts in that sphere to get off the mark but there is no doubt in my mind that she's only now starting to grow into her massive frame and she looks a vastly improved animal showing the benefit of having the summer off last year. On the back of that break, she landed her first career victory at Cork in a Bumper back in November in impressive style as she made rapid headway to lead with about 5f out and from about 2f out she battle on gamely to win by 1.5L, although I feel that she was certainly value for more than the winning margin suggests. The form of that race doesn't look great but she can only beat what's put in front of her and she has clearly improved again for the switch to hurdles. She made her hurdles debut at Cork in December when sent off a pretty well supported 7/2 shot but she took a heavy tumble at the first flight as she rushed into it and just got it completely wrong. I actually feared she had broken her leg at the time but luckily she seems to have escaped that nasty looking incident unscathed and she made no mistake on her 2nd time of asking over hurdles when running out an impressive winner on her last start. A couple of weeks ago at Punchestown, Way Up In The Air was again strong in the betting when sent off a 3/1 shot on what was effectively her first start over hurdles and I don't think she could have won in more impressive fashion. Racing quite keenly throughout, Davy Russell tried to bury her towards the rear of the field but that just couldn't happen as she jumped every hurdle so well that she was making up about a length on every one of her rivals at each obstacle and soon she was sitting just off the pace. Jumping tremendously throughout, she made smooth headway under Russell to go 4th at about half way and came there on the bridle as her and eventual runner up Champagne Agent forged clear of the rest of the field. Coming up the last flight, Russell asked his mount to quicken on and she did so impressively in a manner of strides to put distance between her and her rival. She looked clueless when she hit the front as she wandered around and idled all over the place but she was kept up to her work by Davy's strong exertions as she ended up scoring by just shy of 5L. There is no doubt in my mind that she had loads left in the tank and I am sure she's going to be delivered to challenge quite later tomorrow. The runner up that day Champagne Agent is a very solid yardstick (although he can't buy a win!) as he has shown some quite useful form finishing narrowly beaten 2nds to subsequent Listed Hurdle winner Too Scoops and the talented High Desert and I think it was a very impressive success by this mare. Its no surprise to me that she is stepped straight into a Listed Novice Hurdle and given that she has only had one completed start over hurdles tells you that connections obviously think quite a bit of her. She faces a very difficult task in trying to overcome Zuzka as her far more experienced rival brings some really strong form including a comfortable Grade 3 success on her last start as well as a fine close up 3rd behind Jezki and Champagne Fever and she rightfully deserves to be odds on. There is no question in my mind that its going to take a very good horse to beat Zuzka tomorrow but I really think Way Up In The Air is just that and I'll be surprised and very disappointed if she isn't in the first 3 home tomorrow. I do, however, think that this huge mare could be a little bit special tomorrow and I think she's going to run a huge race tomorrow at a price that I think is very generous. Regardless what happens tomorrow, remember the name as I think she's going to be an absolute monster over fences.
Lads, tomorrow is all about the tennis. I'm on Murray each way at 3/1. Profit guaranteed whatever the result and both pay out significantly but if he wins I'm collecting a really good payout. First set is vital in the majority (but not all) of their matches and I think Andy has the attacking firepower to turn over the odds on fav. Whatever the result I'm collecting a rather significant sum so I'd like a bit of advice from the great and the good. I am backing Sprinter Sacre for the QMCC this year. I will be using this bets return to do it. I've already called the bet through to see if they'll accept the stake and I've had the thumbs up. Would you take the 2/5 now with the associated risks or wait and have to take 1/4 or thereabouts but with NRNB? Also, I have considered using the same stake in a double with Quevega. Obviously I'd then have to wait for confirmed running.plans. A sensible bet to do the double or not? So to sum up I'm asking for opinions on two things: a) back SS now at 2/5 or take a shorter price when NRNB comes into play. b) whether to double with Quevega I'd appreciate your thoughts chaps.
Bob I've doubled up Sprinter Sacre and Simonsig at 9/4, I think that is a monster price, both look absolutely bomb-proof to me. Not sure if your bookmaker of choice is offering on that. With Quevega you run the risk that she might actually go for the World Hurdle I suppose, although Mullins has always said she will go for the mares race again. Do you expect SS to shorten much with NRNB? I don't think he will, bookies want some turnover on the market and if they go 1/5 they will get little action (much like today).
Binocular will do well to place in that ground Wooly. Hurricane will win by a distance and will be 2/1 Champion Hurdle favourite. Which is great, because he still hasnt beat anything of note this year and he leaves everyone else as nice value. HF is still a top animal though.
I tipped her last time ROTO.She is improving,is a very strong traveller and quite impressed me against the boys. Champagne Agent form is always a little suspect but with 9 in the field I'm gonna play her e/w.
Cheers Oddy. I'm not sold on Simonsig over 2miles yet! I'm in the Overturn camp currently but that could change before the Festival. Quevega should be running in the World Hurdle. She'd win that leaving KGL to mop up the mares race giving us all two winners at decent prices instead of one winner at 1/2. Will SS shorten with NRNB? I don't know to be honest.
Re Quevega Bob,I think we all forget that 2 out of the 4 years she won,it was touch and go whether she'd get there...!!..remember. Backing a 2/5 shot with a chance of not getting a run is not good business in my book regarding SS. Back Manu home or away next week you'll gte similar vlaue with a more certain outcome.
If I do the double Dex I'll not do it till the week on the Festival exactly because of Quevega's patchy fitness record and the destination issue. I'll just have to accept the poorer price.
Anyhow,I really fancy Competitive Edge 9/1 e/w 4.10 Leopardstown AP rides in the 1.55 and hangs around until 4.10 in South Dublin on a Sunday Afternoon to ride this one. CE had run in four novice 'chases to get a mark against Bosbon Bob,Mikael D'Hag,Texas Jack and Jenari before being given a typical Mark Walsh ride LTO when never put in the race but running on nicely. He has won over hurdles off 115 and runs off 116 tommorrow with undoubtedly more to come.The trip and ground are perfect and whilst this is a competitve little race Competitive Edge should have just that and represents a cracking e/w punt at the odds. GL all.
Very interested to see what price Angela's Money opens in the opener in Ireland. Can't see him out of the three.
Slightly out of my comfort zone having to look at Irish racing for my Sunday handicap bet. I have found one though that looks worth a dabble in the handicap hurdle at 2.30. CHESTNUT CHARLIE 16-1 at eleven years of age will not be vastly improving but my view to him is that the key is the trip. He has run really well on his last two outings since returning from a long absence but both were over an inadequate two miles. His one win to date was at Auteuil on similar ground and over 20f. His last run in Ireland over his best trip was in March 2011 when beaten 13 lengths at Gowran when running off a whopping 123, tomorrow he races off a mere 106 and with the assistance of a decent seven pound apprentice he could be primed to go very close indeed.
Im in the murray camp tomorrow as well. Backed him to win the tournament before it started and i am as confident now as i was back then. The way he is playing at the moment i just think djok will struggle to break him down. Should be a cracking game tho!
BTW Oddy..speaking as one of the short changed...where is the second instalment of the Carry On series?
