Lingfied 1.25 Speak the truth 9-2 This hoirse has been unlucky on his last two visits to the racetrack and although he has not collected he has succeeded in showing he is without doubt on a winning mark. He is drawn much better tomorrow and has a quality jockey on board and so I would recommend a decent bet at best odds tonight. I am with you on Mr Watson Roto and have just backed it. Stick do you have any opinion on the Emma Lavelle horse Gullinbursti at Cheltemham? I was hugely impressed with Rajdhani Express at Kempton on Boxing day but have had good success in the past taking on impressive winners at kempton/ Aintree at Cheltenham and vice versa. I know Rajdhani Express beat the Lavelle horse Coole River whom much was expected from at Kempton and so they certainly have a line to what will be needed. I am thinking of going with Gullinbursti and taking the value made from RE's last run so wondered if you had a view from the stable.
I cant be having Mr Watson, I agree he is well handicapped off 127, but so is Dildar off 130, I just cant see him doing the pulling in front and winning, hes not that well handicapped, obviously has a race in him off this kind of mark but I dont think its tomorrow. Might be wrong but he beat absolutely nothing at plumton and I think he should have opened up closer to 10/1 tbh, 6/1 for me dosent cover the risk of him blowing the race, he wont get away with it in a field like this. If he starts the race tomorrow and settles beautifully and he was 6s on betfair id maybe be interested, McCoy doing the weight fair enough, he has an obvious chance, but I dont see any value in the price. Getting near enough the same price Dildar, who was touted as a Triumph horse last year, has the advantage of experience in a similar race, looks equally well handicapped and looks pretty much nailed on to run his race. No brainer for me.
Hey Bluesky. Happy to share my thoughts as I did by text with NASS earlier. I dont havethat much faith in GULLINBURSTI as I do not think he is a natural jumper. The yard fancy him tomorrow but I wont be touching him. You would think they have a good yardstick to Rajdhani Express who thrashed Coole River at Kempton. I personally like JOHNS SPIRIT with AP on, the key factor being tomorrows trip for him. In short mate, the yard fancy it but I dont! I looked long and hard at your selection too but to be frank the only thing I could see in his favour was the jockey booking. Best of luck with him though!
Hi guys Long time lurker, finally plucked up to the courage to post (just like in school trying to pluck up the courage to ask the cute chick if she'll go on a date with you to the Maccies then maybe the Odeon if I was lucky) Lets hope this has better results. Anyone nearby the Cheltenham area? if so do you think we'll be good to go. I live a stones throw away from Aintree and I wouldn't be surprised if the National meeting goes to a preliminary monday morning 7am inspection it's that heavy up here. If we go ahead. I love Grands Crus tomorrow in the Argento, disappointed me so far over fences but showed glimpses of hope lto. Tidal Bay looks a worthy favourite after getting a new lease of life under ma boy Paul Nicholls but can't see GC being out of the top 3 so for me he is a proverbial e/w shot to nothing at 9/2.
Welcome aboard, we really arent that scary you know. Currently raining at Cheltenham, no problem at all tomorrow!
good to hear Stick as I'm going tomorrow! One other I'll be playing in the 12.40 is Vino Griego with the yard banging out the winners and this is a horse who seems to save his best for races with bigger pots . I don't think this is a strong field and he's a different horse on this sort of ground. Definitely e/w this one.
Hi peeps. Another first time poster here although I have been a member a while and read the threads all the time for tips and info as I'm new and interested in this fantastic sport. I'm hoping someone could help me out on something that I can't get my head round and that is how weight and ratings of a horse go hand in hand? I've heard sayings as horses been a few pound out of the handicap or a horse is well in on ratings. Any info that you could shed on this would be appreciated. Cheers chaps. Looking forward to broadening my knowledge
Do we trust Donald McCain to have Our Mick right first time out since March. Looks well in and reasonable at 10s but if I'm to desert BSB I need to know this one is bang on.
Tricky little race George, in my opinion. BSB has an obvious chance, but there are lots of "if" horses here, including Our Mick if he's fit ..... I have done two outsiders ew - Chance Du Roy and an old fav Quincey Des Pictons. Good luck at the track tomorrow - I'm guessing Toon are out of the Cup!
2.15 Leopardstown: Lord Windermere 9/2- **Take some fancy prices for the RSA**. I think a lot of this horse and I think he has been bought along gradually and sensibly by Jim Culloty. He will, in my eyes, improve a stone for 3m and gfood ground if that is the route he takes to Cheltenham, and he might be worth positioning on antepost at eye-watering odds of 85s. He looked in trouble the last day but he began to go on again at the line, and that was over 2m 3f, suggesting a step up in trip would definitely suit. He got a bit lonely out in front that day and I think he will have this race set up for him nicely. 12:15 Cheltenham: ROLLING STAR 6/4 Always chancy, but the form of Irish Saint's French hurdle did not work out and the winning distance at Kempton was somewhat exaggerated, as was the opposition. McVicar hit the last hard and lost all momentum so don't read too far into the 'demolition job' at Kempton that day. It certainly looked a strong-travelling horse but it also looked built for chasing, much like Sam Winner, and therefore I suspect the Triumph track at Cheltenham won't suit quite so much. Paul Nicholls said he 'was not a Triumph horse' prior to his debut that day, whereas there is significant money for the Henderson hotpot in the Triumph market, suggesting that Michael Buckley may have unearthed another nice novice hurdler, which he deserves after the unfortunate problems encountered by Spirit Son. 2.25: GRANDS CRUS (NAP) Mad maybe, but 9/2 in this field represents a chance taken by the bookmakers. Personally I thought he ran a brilliant race at Kempton for his first run back from a breathing op, and if he follows a similar path to Bobs Worth last season- who improved no end on his second run after a breathing op- he stands himself in great stead. Grands Crus has more natural speed than all of these horses put together and it is down to Tom Scudamore to grab this race by the scruff of the neck and go on from the front. If they hold him up all the way, he will not win. If they hold him up, then let the shackles off, he has the speed to go a long, long way clear, which on my analysis of the race would be enough to hold off the staying on types. Tidal Bay has not had anything like the ideal prep this week, and I simply put a line through him, which is why Grands Crus at 9/2 is rock solid value. Hope to see Imperial Commander retain his ability too. 3.35 Cheltenham: Kauto Stone 15/2 Solid French hurdles form and ideal conditions for a return to the smaller obstacles here. Paul Nicholls would not just throw this horse into the mix at random, and I think there is some thought process behind it, especially as he has left Tidal Bay chasing- for now. His defeat of First Lieutenant, albeit chasing, does look somewhat stronger now, and receivng weight he should be in there pitching with no jumping errors to worry him.
Chelts 1.15 Fruity O Rooney ew @14/1. One of my favourite horses in training, a gutsy front runner who always gives you a run for your cash. I think he'll run a big race tomorrow. He's got a decent pull in the weights against his conqueror from lto. He ran a blinder here at the festival last year when runner up to Alfie Sherrin. Our Mick was 4 lengths further back that day and is now 2lb worse off. Also wondering what Carruthers connections are up to putting him back over hurdles for the first time in nearly 5 years. He certainly won't be inconvenienced by the going and I will be seeking a bit of each way thievery at 50s Welcome to sky man and truth4 and good luck to all speculating today.
A warm welcome to you Sky Man, It's good to see a couple of new posters this evening, It's always a good sign as it means we are getting it right between us and maintaining a good forum. In regard your question a basic understanding is that every horse is given a rating or handicap mark. This mark is only really significant with regard horses running in handicaps and the marks of higher rated horses are only supplied so that we on forums have something to argue about. However this mark is achieved after a horse has won a race or has run in 3 races to achieve a mark, within a horses career each time he runs this mark will be raised, lowered or left as before by the official handicapper according to the view he takes of the performance. With regard how the weight translates into an actual race depends how the handicap is framed, so a horse rated 82 may run off of 9st 8lb in a grade 2 but only 8 st 11lb in a grade 3 but will still be running off the same mark of 82 as it depends on how the race is framed and the other horses entered. The figure you need focus on is the horses rating rather than it's weight in the race as regardless of the weight being carried he is running at his current handicap mark and your job is to decide if he is better or worse than his mark given the conditions on that day. This is where you make your judgemnet and hopefully your money as a horses mark and ability is subject to many fluctuating factors so the question you have when looking at a race is does Horse x have a chance off of 82 at this trip, on this going, on this course, from this draw and with this jockey and all of these ponderables are what make punting such fun. Handicaps are probably the most fun from a punting point of view but it may be fair to say you may make more money from top quality races or maidens (by following market) as they tend be more predictable. As in all group races everything is trying and most likely been targeted selectively rather than sent racing every three weeks like an all weather handicapper. In the maidens the bookmakers prices and any movement within them is hugely significant and half of a 12 runner field can usually be discounted with reasonable accuracy and you can very easily end up with a three horse race in a 12 runner field. What makes handicaps so difficult is that we as punters are always trying to take a view of a horses ability whilst the trainer is always trying to present a deceptive view of that horses ability until he wants it to be shown which is why experience in being able to read trainers, owners and jockey bookings is important, as is knowing when money for a horse is significant like today with Secret Millionaire. If I have anything wrong I apologise in advance but know someone on here will be able to set it straight for you.
E/W Lucky 63 on these CHELTENHAM 12:10 Knight Of Pleasure @ 9/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 12:40 Bennys Mist @ 11/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 13:15 Our Mick @ 9/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 14:25 Quartz De Thaix @ 12/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 15:35 Crack Away Jack @ 16/1 (GP) CHELTENHAM 16:10 Bourne @ 15/2 (GP) E/W Lucky 31 on the following WOLVERHAMPTON 14:15 Thunderball @ 9/1 (GP) LEOPARDSTOWN 14:45 Canaly @ 10/1 (GP) LINGFIELD 15:10 Tinshu @ 5/1 (GP) LEOPARDSTOWN 15:20 King Of Queens @ 12/1 (GP) WOLVERHAMPTON 16:00 Mambo Spirit @ 15/2 (GP)
Been asking myself the same question all week George. He slammed Bless The Wings as a novice and goes really well at Cheltenham.
I'll probably play him ahead of SBB, just hope I get a run and it's not some opener. With the ground now heavy I no longer think it's a day to go steaming in. Just gonna grab a cuppa and some toast and I need to be off. Long drive! Do we have pricewise for today??
BOLD SIR BRIAN 11/2 this powerhouse puts himself in the Gold Cup frame big time today. He's got a Rolls Royce of engine and if keeps mistakes to a minimum will win.
