Hello I am new to the forums, so 'hi everyone', and apologies if I do something wrong... I am here to try and learn and one day maybe add something to the community! My plan is to stick to level stakes on every race... I did it last year, at £30 per race, which was £810 in total staked. I am planning this year to go up to £40 per race. Should I stick to this plan (and incorporate any ante-post bets that I have) or Should I abandon it, and just pile all in on the first day with Simonsig, Quevega and the day after on Sprinter Sacre... (the obvious problem there being if I lost it all I'd have nothing to bet with)... I'd be really happy to come out of the week with £1080.... but I want to bet on every race, despite having varying degrees of confidence about every race! The reason though that I am not comfortable doing a points system, is that I would get swayed by the odds..... SO I'd be full stake on the shorter odds, and lesser stakes on the bigger prices. I think I am answering my own question, but I just want some reassurance Thanks for any feedback!
Kev, The danger is of course that a hot, hot favourite tips up and you blow your entire stake on one bit of bad luck. It depends on what you really want from the week. If you want to enjoy it and really enjoy every race, I think your level stakes idea is absolutely fine. In your head you are thinking 'what if I went big on the ones I REALLY think will win', but racing is always a what if, and therefore I think your level stakes plan will give you a much more rounded, fun, and less risky way of doing thing. Professional punters would tell you otherwise, but if you really enjoy the whole festival, why risk the all in bet? Level stakes is the most sensible way to punt- look at people like Hugh Taylor who always record their level stakes results. -One big bet and they could undo all ther good work. If you are in it to make megabucks, obviously you would need to go big. But Cheltenham, and indeed horse racing, is not the place to make megabucks in my opinion, which is why you will never see a stokebroker put your investment funds into a horse race! Enjoy the festival and best of luck mate. Welcome
Welcome to the forum mate. If your happy spending £1080 quid what I would do is have that as a betting bank and pick and choose your stakes depending on confidence - with a limit of what your maximum bet will be per race/horse E.G £100. Its inevitable that your going to have a few horses that you fancy more than others so I would suggest putting a little extra on them and having smaller stakes on the ones that are a bit of a shot in the dark. Having a betting bank also allows you the opportunity to perhaps back multiple horses in the same race (if you're in to that sort of thing). Alternatively, you could give yourself a daily betting allowance of £270 and do it that way to ensure you don't spend more than you want to. Everyone is different and that is only my 2 cents but I certainly think its an option worth considering. This is a great forum so feel free to contribute in any way you feel fit and be sure to check out the daily threads (especially for Cheltenham) as there are some really top tipsters on here.
Level stakes isn't the way to go imo. Like roto say's your not going to fancy all horses equally. And Cheltenham festival is definitely the place to have more than one horse on your side in a lot of the races. A budget of £40 a race is a good idea, but for the short ones you suggested you could put your budget together and do a £120 treble. Simonsig, Quevega and Sprinter sacre treble currently pays over 4/1, so for your £120 you'd get back £600. Not a bad start. It's worth remembering that if you did put all of your betting balance on the 'sure things' last year you would probably have lumped on Hurricane Fly, and been finished(gambling wise) by the fourth race.
If you hope to show a profit, then you should just bet on the races were you have a strong fancy. Dont just bet on every race for the sake of having a bet. If you feel the need to bet on every race for enjoyment, then just have fivers or tenners on the 25 runner handicaps. If I were you, I'd just pick out 4 or 5 horses that you strongly fancy during the week, and have a couple of hundred on each
Welcome a board. Just a couple of things to contribute here. Is Quevega guaranteed to run in the mares race? Whatever connections say publicly they must have considered the world hurdle without big bucks. Is Simonsig an absolute good thing over 2 miles? I think he's likely to be better over further and see evens as a poor price. I could be wrong but at evens for an ante post punt I want to see more certainty in the selection. Sprinter Sacre is a jail case.
I would go for a daily bank plus a little spare for horses you really fancy. Then go small on races you don't like and bigger on the ones you are strong on. I will be doing just that at the festival (all four days of fun) but I won't bet in every race, unless there is something I like.
Agree with the betting bank concensus. One last thing to remember. Try not to let yourself get carried away on a wave on confidence if you win or vice versa. There's not a sole on this forum who could honestly say they haven't chased a loss or tried to play up winnings on bets they've not thought about properly. Discipline
Great point. Best I have read on here for a good while (including the massive touches that have been landed). Discipline is the key.
I only said it because in November I won £8000 and lost £1650 of it back within 4 days trying to play up my winnings. We've all experienced the fog that success and failure washes over us. Not a nice experience.
I would say that 95% of people on this forum can pick out a good winner, however I am not sure how many on here can do so with discipline and let other races slide because they don't quite meet the posters selection process. I know that I have chased losses/played up winnings, and without a more disciplined approach you can waste so much of what you earn through those very good selections that we all have. Take Saturday, I knew I should have only backed one horse but I thought I saw something in the run of Restless Harry the time previous that would give him a great chance. I wouldn't have backed him normally as I don't rate his jockey or jumping ability but decided to ignore those views because the price was pretty fair. He ran like a drain, and cost me a bit of the hard earned I had got earlier with Oscara Dara. Lack of discipline.
there is only 1 nailed on certainty at the festival -SPRINTER SACRE But the odds are not really going to be very attractive
If you want to have an interest in each race then I would also look at e/w Lucky 15s / Lucky 31s etc etc. If you have 4 races and have a big-priced fancy in each, you could have a fiver e/wLucky 15 (costs 150 quid) to cover your interest on the 4 races. If all 4 win it's a life changer, if all 4 place it's probably a very nice return and even if you just have two placed you could end up in profit. Be wary of identifying "sure things" at the festival as well. Last year I did an ante-post yankee on Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks and Long Run the beginning of January. 3 of the 4 shortened significantly after winning their prep races well (Big Bucks' price remained pretty steady) and I thought I had struck a very good bet. Yet what happened? Only 1 of the 4 won and I did my dough. Definitely learnt my lesson there, although obviously there is only 1 "shorty" in the 4 Championship races this season (Sprinte Sacre). The others all look very open.
Same here Nass - all last week I had only 1 thought - to lump on The New One. Come Saturday and i have to back my competition picks, and then a few other fancies come in or some good tips from others on the forum and then I'm into backing about a dozen horses. I did lump on The New One but lost alot of the profit on other silly bets. I am an undisciplined Motha ****ah !!
Indeed - I have lost count of the number of times I've got a nice payout from Bet 365 and rather than press the withdraw button thought "now let the fun begin". It usually ends up in a zero balance
Now and again i do read what people put up and follow that...... Doing very well cheers - rather surprised at the performance of Udinese's B team (better known to some people as Watford FC) and am expecting normal mid table mediocrity to return soon.!
What an excellent set of responses. Some really good points and ideas. Firstly ROTO, a betting bank would work form me I think, and I suppose I would be best suited to this as I already kind of do that .... To build myself up to the £810 I have currently, I've mainly picked out a few key races each Saturday (since April) that I focus on, and bet accordingly. I don't just back on every live C4 race just for the sake of it... Obviously I could probably give you 50% of the horses that if I HAD to back now I would throughout the festival. Secondly, OddDog ... I had the same bet last year! Was bomb proof. I think I actually went in again after Hurricane Fly went down! Will not be making that mistake again for sure! Most people are mentioning disipline in not chasing losses.... that is why I originally planned a set amount per race...the fear is that if I was to do a daily allowance, in the 30 minutes between races when I've just had a massive hit as Sprinter Sacre clatters a fence, I'll dip into day 3's £270 and so on... But to summerise, I think the betting bank idea is the way forward. Thanks everyone for your welcome and for your comments, really nice and I look forward to chatting some more!
Just wrote a big reply only for it not to save. Brilliant! Thanks for the great response, very kind indeed! Firstly, MOTO, I have to say I think that the betting bank is a great idea and would suit me more than my current suggestion. I actually already do a very similar thing, and have built up my bankroll to £810 by selecting and focussing on a few key races every Saturday (since April) and not just betting for the sake of it because it is on C4! However, Cheltenham is different and I would bet 'just for the sake of it' however, I am confident I'll have at least SOME feelings towards a horse in every race. The 'treble' and so on is again something I have considered, but my worry there (as OddDog had) is that last year I had the Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe Big Bucks and Long run bet! 100/1 I think it was at one stage .... and after Hurricane Fly didn't win the 1st day I went back in on the "big 3" --- I wouldn't like to 'waste' money on that when I could just stick £40 on something I am not as confident about at 8/1 that storms home! Thanks everyone for your comments, really nice and I look forward to chatting some more!
Kevloaf For what it's worth it's a 1.01 shot you will lose on the week if you bet on every race. What I would suggest is have decent bets on the horses you strongly fancy and have a couple of small interests on teh weeks racing aggregate winning distances, total winning favourites etc - you can risk very little of your kitty whilst still having an interest on every race.
