LAST year’s runner-up Giles Cross is set to have just two horses above him in the weights for Saturday’s rearranged Grade 3 Coral Welsh National at Chesptow. Tidal Bay, Quel Espirit and Hey Big Spender were all taken out of the race at the latest stage meaning the 153-rated Across The Bay is now in line to carry top weight. With the three at the head of weights among a host of horses at the upper end of the handicap taken out of the race, the weights are set to rise by 13lb. Giles Cross, who was beaten just two and three-quarter lengths by Le Beau Bai in the race last season, will be attempting to give Victor Dartnall a well deserved change of luck as the trainer was forced to close down his yard for a number of weeks following an outbreak of equine herpes. All the leading fancies remained in the race for which Teaforthree is the general 7-2 favourite. Wyck Hall, as short as 12-1 in places, was the shortest price of those to be taken out of the race. http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/c...=2013-01-05&big_race=Y&raceTabs=#raceTabs=sc_ My money is on ROYAL CHARM @ 33/1 who ran a super race last time out behind Sona Sasta, when staying on stoutly into 3rd and is weighted to reverse that form. Cannot quite understand the massive price discrepancy between the two? He'll love the ground , he loves Chepstow, he's well handicapped & looks progressive as an 8yo, also Cannington Brook who was 11 lengths behind him in 4th last time out, has since gone on to win. Thoughts as always?
Ok .... well - I'd be slightly concerned about RC staying the extra 5 furlongs on heavy, his best work seems to have been on 3m or less. Teaforthree ran a very good race in the Hennesey and deserves his favouritism, but at 7-2 - not for me. Monbeg Dude pissed all over the fav last time out, and although that was Teaforthree's first outing for a while, MD ran a great race and at 16-1 a place seems nailed on. Just my tuppence worth
I would side with Master Overseer @ 12/1... A previous winner on heavy ground lto, won a good race up the hill at Cheltenham last month to beat Quartz De Thaix by a length, regaining the lead after losing it 2 from home. If not losing much from that race then the ole boy can very close for this one... Plus, the Pipe yard has just started to throw a good few winners in recently...
He's gone up 8lb for that win Red. Failed to land a blow off 130 in the race last year, i can't see him getting any nearer off a career high mark of 142. Good luck all the same
I just did a quick look at the trends for his race. This is my results(and short cut to the poor house). Recent Coral Welsh National Winners 2011 â LE BEAU BAI (10/1) 2010 â SYNCHRONISED (5/1) 2009 â DREAM ALLIANCE (20/1) 2008 â NOTRE PERE (16/1) 2007 â MIKO de BEAUCHENE (13/2) 2006 â HALCON GENELARDAIS (7/1) 2005 â LâAVENTURE (14/1) 2004 â SILVER BIRCH (10/3 fav) 2003 â BINDAREE (14/1) 2002 â MINI SENSATION (8/1) Trends i'm using - 10/10 â Aged 9 or younger 10/10 â Had won between 1-5 chase races before 10/10 â Raced within the last 7 weeks 10/10 â Had won over at least 3m before (fences) Qualifiers of these are as follows - Across the bay Teaforthree Alfie spinner(non runner?) Universal soldier Quartz de thaix Harouet Viking blonde Monbeg dude Now the next trend could be suicidal as it is - 9/10 â Placed in the top 4 last time out Which means the 3/1 favorite Teaforthree is omitted despite running really well in the Hennessy. But you can't choose which trends to follow so on i go. Qualifiers - Across the bay Universal soldier Quartz de thaix Viking blonde Monbeg dude 8/10 â Carried 11-0 or less in weight 8/10 â Aged 8 or younger Qualifiers - Univesal soldier 14/1 Monbeg dude 14/1 Viking blonde 7/1 Nb. - A few 10 year olds would have been 9 if the race was run on its normal date. but they would all have been eliminated at the final stage(or before).
Courtesy of Paul Jones Recent course form has been a big advantage as 13 of the last 21 winners were given some match practice at Chepstow earlier in the same season. Eight of those ran in the Rehearsal Chase which was moved to Newcastle in 2005 so the Chepstow factor should in theory not be as important but Le Beau Bai extended their high strike last season having won at the course earlier in the month and the previous two winners had also won at Chepstow before in another season so Chepstow form remains highly significant, be it this season or in the past. One race to treat with real caution as a guide, however, is the Hennessy Gold Cup. Given that second and third-season chasers have dominated both these staying prizes and there is only a month between the two races, a logical conclusion would be to support a horse that performed with distinction in the Newbury showpiece. However, no Hennessy runner has won the Welsh National since Playschool completed the double in 1987 and last year the Newbury hero, Carruthers, joined the likes of Ghofar, Party Politics, Lord Relic, Fiddling The Facts, Young Kenny, Kings Road, Take Control, Hedgehunter, Sir Rembrandt and Dream Alliance in being a leading fancy at Chepstow off the back of a big effort at Newbury (bar Sir Rembrandt who only got as far as the third fence) without success. In fact, of those mentioned, only Carruthers did not start favourite or second favourite. It almost certainly leads to the conclusion that any horse that excelled in the Hennessy would, in all probability, need more than a month to recover from those exertions as these are both brutal races. Recent course form has been a big advantage as 13 of the last 21 winners were given some match practice at Chepstow earlier in the same season. The tide is beginning to turn as far as weight carried is concerned as the Welsh National was formerly a race where supporting a horse carrying a big weight, or even over 11st for that matter, was like throwing money down the drain. Carvill's Hill's goliath performance to win by 20 lengths off top weight off 11st 12lbs back in 1991 was dismissed as a freak year and it took horses of the class of Master Oats and Halcon Genelardais, who then went on to win and finish fourth in the Gold Cup three months later, to breach the over 11st threshold in the next 15 years. Recent trends, however, are by far the most important and four of the last six winners have carried 11st+ including another future Gold Cup winner in Synchronised. In keeping with the other major handicap chases run in the first half of the season, horses aged in double figures really struggle here. Since Rag Trade took this event back in 1976, only the Martin Pipe-trained Riverside Boy has defied this statistic but that was a particularly poor renewal featuring just eight runners of which six were running from outside the handicap and half were fast approaching veteran status. The Welsh National used to be a strong favourites' race with the market leader scoring six times between 1988 - 1994 but just one of the last 15 market leaders (Silver Birch) has justified such market support. That said, Synchronised and Halcon Genelardais were long-time ante-post favourites only to be replaced as market leader on the morning of the race and the only two real surprises in the last 38 years were the successes of Earth Summit and Dream Alliance. The Pipe team were dominant in this race, winning five times in six seasons during the late-eighties and early-nineties but their touch in this contest appears to have deserted them having supplied just two placed runners from their last 30 contenders. Northern raiders have also failed to come to terms with this race of late. Their last winner was the Monica Dickinson-trained Righthand Man back in 1984 despite sending down plenty of leading fancies including three beaten favourites. Paul Nicholls has won two of the last eight renewals including saddling a 1-2-3 in 2005. At a glance summary Positives A run at Chepstow earlier in the season A victory at Chepstow earlier in their career Trained by Paul Nicholls Negatives Aged 10+ Hennessy Gold Cup runners Northern-based raiders The favourite
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: Aged 6 to 9 French bred horses do well Officially rated 142 or higher Horses carrying a penalty also do well Finished in the first 4 last time out in past 55 days Had 1 or 2 runs this season Ran in a handicap hurdle over 3M+ this season Course winner (or having first course start) Won over 3M or further Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2) Won or placed in a graded chase over 3M+ Second or third season chaser Finished in first 4 in Midlands National and/or Haydock GN Trial First 6 in a Grand National, Hennessy Gold Cup or 4M NH Chase Trained by P Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill, A King or N Twiston-Davies Tends to race prominently
Alfie Spinner out but I'm increasingly sweet on the chances of Tim Vaughan's Our Island. This horse has been one I've taken an interest in for a while and I can't help but think his welsh trainer has had this in mind for him for a while. OI finished a fairly remote 6th in this last year. Though that form is not particularly inspiring his trainer had not expected him to get in here so had run him only 10 days previously in swamp conditions in the Tommy Whittle. He had a hard race at Haydock finishing 2nd over 30 lengths infront of the 3rd horse. Over half the horses didn't get round that day. I'd expect a better showing on Saturday. Last years effort was also his first attempt at a marathon trip and has performed with credit on several occasions since, albeit on unsuitable ground. He finished 25 lengths behind T43 at Cheltenham but will have a 17 pull in the weights. He'll also have the bottomless ground his trainer says he needs. Though T43 has got form on heavy he's never been exposed to it over a marathon trip. He also has the Hennessy stat to overcome. OI seems to have been nibbled at a bit and is now only 33s with Billy Hills but as low as 20s elsewhere. I've had some 28s and 25s with Bet365 and am expecting a good ew run for my dough.
Universal Soldier for me, 14/1 last time I looked. I remember him outstaying the field to win a 3m handicap hurdle at Chepstow for Lawney Hill, and I thought then he looked made for the Welsh National. Ran with plenty of promise at Haydock in Nov on his debut for Charlie Longsdon.
17 likely to go to post in Welsh National 18 runners have been declared for the Welsh National, although Alfie Spinner has the race as a second preference. Quartz De Thaix, who was 14-1, is the most notable absentee. http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=570573&r_date=2013-01-05#raceTabs=sc_ Means my own selection now goes to Sandown, what a bummer. My money will now be on the Hobbs outsider TRIGGERMAN who i would imagine will be trading around 70-80 come tomorrow.
There are so many with a good chance, I'm giving this race a miss. Gun to my head: 1. Michel Le Bon 2. Master Overseer 3. Viking Blond
