Archers, does that first stat include all of the other teams that were 4+ points from safety, e.g. ALL teams in the bottom 3 at the end of the calendar year, or is it specifically teams in the bottom 3, but not 4+ points from safety? If it is the former, the fact that we're not in either of the latter categories would decrease our chance of getting relegated from 63% to something far lower because we'd be getting lumped in a generic category with others that have a far lesser chance. I'll try read the article tomorrow and see if I can interpret it a bit better. Lat
'Only 63% of teams in bottom 3 go down' indicates that teams out of the zone have a good chance of going down as well (obviously chance increases the fewer points you have). There is usually a team that gets pulled in. It's all very close and stats don't allow for a team that gets a couple of wins late in season. My wish for the New Year is we open up a gap and the end of the season is incredibly boring.
As I read it, that first stat is for all teams in the bottom 3. So if you can weight the figures to take into account the fact that we're in the first category but not the other two, then as you rightly say, our odds improve quite a bit. My maths isn't up to an accurate calculation of our odds from the figures given, but I'd guess at about 7/4 in our favour, rather than 6/4 against. The article appeared in Monday's RP.
So Liverpool have signed Sturridge and Chelsea have triggered Demba Ba's release clause. Could Newcastle be in trouble without him?
Yeah, Pardew needs to pull another rabbit out of the hat. Could trigger a bid for Lambert actually, although I doubt he'd go.
Well unless Mike Ashley gets his cheque book out, I can't see them signing a replacement for Ba of equal quality, as £7million surely wouldn't be enough. Might be enough to get attract Hooper, but until I see him play in PL, I've got no idea if he'll excel to the level that Jelavic has.
Nah, I'd honestly be trying to sell him. I know he's a great player for them, but he'd be disruptive if he was denied a move to a bigger club, and perhaps they can get the best out of Cisse once he's gone. Start playing him through the middle with Ben Arfa and Jonas either side, and I think they could actually be better off without Ba. I think this will turn out to be one of those transfers that works out nicely for both parties.
I think they will struggle without him. He's scored half their goals this season (13). Cissé has scored 3, and one of them he knew nothing about. And, as st_brendy says, the money they get for him will not buy them a replacement.
Missing my point a little. If he didn't leave in this window, Newcastle would probably be dealing with a player who didn't want to be there and who might stop scoring goals and start causing problems. I also think Cisse has been struggling to play alongside Ba, and that he might play a lot better without him, in a formation that is more like what Newcastle fans have been dying to see. We all know what he's capable of when he's playing well. Ba has been great during his time at Newcastle, but that's no guarantee that he will continue to do so. I personally believe that this is the right time to be moving him on.
QPR just 5 points off safety now. Absolutely MASSIVE result for them tonight. Anyone who thinks they are going down with a whole transfer window and half a season left is dreaming. Game on Lambo.
This month was always going to be the big month for QPR, both on and off the field. Go and have a look at their fixtures during February, March and April. Except for Man Utd at home on 23 Feb, they are mouth watering (for a QPR fan). Granted May isn't the nicest end for them, but they might not even need and wins in May if they take advantage of these next upcoming three months like any decent PL should. There's 8 wins during those three months if they want them. If they sign the right players this month, and aren't too far adrift come 1 Feb, they will survive. It's why I've been so worried about this month.
Danny Mills and David Pleat on 5live say QPR will stay up. They also say "Southampton are a bad side and will go down". According to them us and Reading are certs and then Villa/Wigan will join us.
I can only say that they can never have watched us if they think we are a bad side. We have talented players who play as a team...teams that go down are usually a bunch of misfits (like we probably were when we were relegated in 2005). I prefer on MOTD when they said we would be alright...select your pundits wisely.
