Okay, I've finally got a bet down for the Champion Hurdle on a horse I rate exceptionally highly. The horse in question? MONKSLAND @80/1 If the horse does go there, which is still up in the air, I honestly think he has an each-way chance. Originally of course, the late, great Go Native would have been earmarked for the race and that would have left Monksland's options a little tricky. With what has happened though, Monksland is now Noel Meade's number one hurdler and he runs in the Hattons Grace on Sunday I believe. That is a 2 and a half mile race and a lot of people will tell me this horse doesn't have the pace for a Champion Hurdle. If he were to win the Hattons Grace, his price is going to tumble and he will begin to be considered as a live outsider in the markets. What people often forget is that horses who stay 2 and a half miles at the highest level over hurdles usually perform very well in Champion Hurdles. The last few years highlight it- ROCK ON RUBY (2nd in the Neptune) is the reigning Champion, PEDDLERS CROSS (Neptune winner, runner up to HURRICANE FLY (himself a 2 and a half mile winner and former Champion Hurdler), ISTABRAQ won the Neptune (then the RSA hurdle) and so did HARDY EUSTACE before going on to double Champion Hurdle glory. In my mind Monksland would almost certainly have been 2nd to Simonsig if he wasn't so badly hampered at Cheltenham when travelling well, and that form would be very strong indeed because Simonsig is a superb prospect. When he is asked to pick up he really responds, quickens, and stays and that is a great tool to have in a Champion Hurdle. He will need them to go a really good clip (so will Zarkandar), and I think the price disparities if you base it on ability alone, is quite frankly ludicrous. PEDDLERS CROSS must be worth a saver at around the 50/1 mark despite doubts, because he would have surely gone close last season if he didnt go chasing, as he would have relished the stamina test that it became, and GRANDOUET at 11/1, who IMO is a far, far better horse than Darlan is a standout price with a very clear idea of where he runs in terms of a prep for Cheltenham. He will run in the international there, will boost his course form and must surely go to Cheltenham shorter than his current price. Madness or value seeking? You decide.
Rate him very highly myself and can't go far wrong at 80/1 in my opinion. Considering the sad passing of Go Native it increases the likelihood that Meade will send Monksland here.
80/1 is a great price about a horse who has so much talent, but the negatives for me are: Not convinced he acted at the track in the Neptune Finished a long way off the winner in that race and seemed to be running on over 2m 5f so may need a proper stamina trip Could be better on soft So for me there's a chance he could swerve Cheltenham, and if he does run will the Champion be his target ? The perils of ante post festival punting...
Hardly a race where you need to hunt for value Toppy, some juicy priced winners here: Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer SP 2012 Rock On Ruby 7 N Fehily P Nicholls 11/1 2011 Hurricane Fly 7 Ruby Walsh W P Mullins 11/4F 2010 Binocular (FR) 6 A P McCoy N Henderson 9/1 2009 Punjabi 6 B J Geraghty Nicky Henderson 22/1 2008 Katchit 5 Robert Thornton A King 10/1 2007 Sublimity 7 P A Carberry John G Carr 16/1 2006 Brave Inca 8 A P McCoy C A Murphy 7/4F 2005 Hardy Eustace 8 Conor O'Dwyer Dessie Hughes 7/1F 2004 Hardy Eustace 7 Conor O'Dwyer Dessie Hughes 33/1 2003 Rooster Booster 9 Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs 9/2 2002 Hors La Loi III 7 Dean Gallagher James Fanshawe 10/1
Cheers for that Oddy, reminded me that I had 5 on that list including the double carpet shot, got severely drunk after Hardy Eustances first win....
Strike rate for the Coral Cup slightly less impressive, reckon I have 2 in that race and not sure I've ever had an each way pick up lol
Watch from 3.11, Monksland has travelled nicely into the race, hurdled fluently, and then watch him get trapped in on the inside whilst Simonsig and one or two others get a clear run in the centre of the pack and begin to make a gap. Then the thing that makes me quite excited about Monksland is that Paul Carberry doesn't panic, and you actually see Monksland spot a gap and cruise past a horse by going right up the rail on the bridle still and then moves himself into contention and a closing 3rd behind Cotton Mill and Simonsig. Cotton Mill then remembered he;d left his wallet at home and bolted left, totally stopping Monkslands momentum and he then stayed on into a never dangerous 3rd, well clear of the field. Simonsig and Monksland are potentially two of the smartest novice hurdlers I have seen, and Meade has kept him hurdling for another season rather than go chasing straight away. Anyway the key point being I think Monksland travels well enough at Cheltenham and does have the tactical speed to be a threat in the race if he makes it there. [video=youtube;7m7x8o7P_CM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7m7x8o7P_CM[/video]
Does that video appear "squashed" to you Toppy? I see that on lots of horse race vids on youtube, squashed in sideways as if the format is wrong. Or is it my settings?
Toppy - I don't doubt that Monksland was inconvenienced by Cotton Mills dive but Denis O'Reagan was getting at the horse 3 out and I'm not convinced he was picking up that well. You also have to question the quality of that race, Simonsig obviously could be special but the rest look average and I didn't see Monksland picking up, he was beaten a long way that day - I had a lumpy each bet on Monksland and felt like I'd got out of jail when he went past in third. I was fortunate enough to speak to Paul Nolan at a Cheltenham preview evening a couple of years back, he was saying that in his opinion the course is poor, horses never take 2 strides on the same level they are either a step up or a step down, in other words the course undulates too much to the point that it can seriously inconvenience some horses - he said he's had horses that have performed above his expectations first time there and others have inexplicably ran poorly and he thinks it's the course. I just got the feeling that day that Monksland could be one of those that doesn't entirely act at the place, of course he could easily prove me wrong....
If anyone has a BetVictor account they are currently offering a refund by way of a free bet should any Cheltenham ante post selections become non runners. It does have a limit of £50 per selection but a decent offer as you know you will not lose your money. They have Zarkander at 7's and Grumeti at 25's which look reasonable as horses that will run well if showing up but way to early for me to get involved.
Hawk, that was on the exchanges. last i checked you could get 100 on betfair. iv asked the firms for prices but no one will go past 50s.
33s on Hissabaat looks very interesting as he ran really well in the triumph last year. However, I suspect he won't shorten much in the coming weeeks so may just keep topping up on bobs Worth as my only ante post bet
MONKSLAND has been given an entry in the Istabraq hurdle in December, although there is talk of him trying 3 miles. Interestingly that is the first entry we have seen for Peddlers Cross, who is entered along with stablemate Cinders and Ashes. We could yet see Peddlers v Hurricane Round 2, but in Ireland. Finally, GRANDOUET runs this weekend against Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar. I think he will win nicely because he will have the turn of foot against the pair of them. He might be 7/1 for the Champion Hurdle come Sunday.
