I agree we have most definitely improved but can't agree we have had no injuries - Gaston, Richardson, Fox are ones that spring to mind...
Can't see Harry saving QPR. Such a misery...if you are playing in an underperforming side, how does it help if a manager comes in full of doom and gloom. Adkins would bve in with his 5 positives, 1 negative. And would be positive in public at least. Harry will want to spend in January, but surely he has some quality already there...they just need sorting out,
Interestingly, current Betfair odds have us as third favourite to go down. I've said it before but academic studies say that betting exchanges are very accurate in terms of reflecting true odds. They have us as a 46% chance of going down. By the same measure, Reading at 75% chance of relegation and QPR at 60%. Next shortest after us is Wigan at 31% then Villa 27%. So, without my red/white glasses on, most likely is Reading, QPR and, er, us. Sorry. With them on, I think Reading, Sunderland and Villa. I suspect saggy chops will pull off another miracle (but leave QPR reeling financially) Vin
You have to look at teams that are not improving, we are starting to find our feet and are holding onto points now with our defence improving and with the return of Cork. The likes of Stoke and Sunderland are finding it hard to score but have good defences, QPR are just a shambles, Villa are a young team but failing to score, even Newcastle could get dragged into the fight as they have alot of African players who may be away during Jan (not sure what players). Shaw has shown that 1 player can make a huge difference when a team has a major problem area. Alot will depend on what teams buy that key player in Jan, and which teams can start scoring, which is why I think we will be nice and safe come the end of the season.
QPR, Reading and Newcastle. As Newcastle proved the last time they went down, the big boys aren't sacred. Worst team to come to SMS this season and while Pardew is still there, I can't see them having much of a spark. On his silly contract, they can't afford to sack him and Ashley will be regretting it because they have the class of players to be well clear of the mess.
the thing about betfair, is that the odds are driven by the punters who alot bet with thier heart so throwing the odds off abit. The big boys have us mainly at 11/10for the drop, not great but the have gotten bigger the last few games. I think most of us would have said at the beginning of the season we had a 50/50 chance of staying up
I would have put us at better than 50:50 at the beginning of the season...then some doubt crept in and now I know it's not going to happen. If people on Betfair are watching Saints every week and making informed judgement I will take notice of it and not before.
I think we'll be alright. We're not missing anything glaringly obvious and the team only really needs a couple of progressive signings to add some extra depth and quality.
I have been amazed at the transformation in Saitns since Cork's return and the appearnace of Luke Shaw in the squad is extremely promising. After watching the last few matches at home, I am starting to think we are capable of surviving whilst I would have thought we were certainties for relegation prior to the QPS match. The return of Redknapp to management seems to be following the same path as when he took charge of us. The same excuses and comments are starting to be trotted out and I think that they are now doomed. There was an interesting interview with John Gorman in the Express over the weekend which chronicled the demise of Swindon in the PL twenty years ago and the statistics / points tally suggests that it is already too much of an ask for them to survive. The arrival of Reading at St. Mary's seemed to suggest a marked decline in their ability from last season when their performance in April signalled that they were the best team in the Championship. I felt they had gone backwards and were fortunate ony to have been beaten 1-0. As for the other teams, I think it is between Saints, Sunderland and Villa. Should they lose tomorrow, I can't see O'Neill keeping his job and they are probably the most likely of the three to struggle. Villa seem poor but I think they will pick up enough points to survive. Saints have the most potential but I am concerned by Lallana's injury and the habit of making fundemental mistakes. I'm more confiednet now that Kelvin is back in the squad too.
the teams above us arent so safe either. teams like newcastle could really struggle in jan with the africa cup of nations. a couple more teams could get dragged into it yet.
im really impressed with the way fonte and maya have progressed compared to the first ten games of the season when we were conceding all over the place and people were after two new CB's in jan.
But also, betting companies tend to be very cautious [that's how they always manage to make money, after all], and the weighting of the past form is against Saints. Also, being a promoted side is against them as well. I suspect that if the good form continues, we'll stop being 3rd favourites to go down. The reality is, if you fancy a flutter, now's the time to do it. Me..? I don't gamble.
Still think Sunderland are in major trouble. Draw or lose tonight and they have United away followed by us!
I am worryingly unafraid...it's as if whatever they do I know they will be below us. We may even drop temporarily into the bottom three, but am confident we will bounce back. We have our mojo back and the important thing is that the team believe that.
Senegal failed to qualify, so they're losing only Tiote among their better players...he's an important player, but his loss alone won't sink them.
Sky have been quoting the fact that the team 19th at this time of the year (presently Reading) avoid relegation in 53% of cases. Not much better than 50:50 but still gives them hope. We avoided relegation when we were bottom (second from bottom?) at Xmas...first time it had been done. So nothing set in stone yet. At this time it can just be keeping the gap down to a manageable size and having a decent GD (saved us a few times).
14th - Newcastle 15th - Wigan 16th - Saints 17th - Villa 18th - Sunderland 19th - Reading 20th - QPR tbh I don't think Norwich even come into this. There are a lot of teams this season who could go down, but I can only really see it being those three. QPR are past it. Reading just don't have the quality in my opinion and Sunderland are looking dire. It could be us, it could be Villa and it could be Wigan, but I think we all have just enough to stay up.
Originally Posted by Southampton's 7&11 West Ham... Is that heart or mind speaking? No its his Arse,, what a load of ****e you talk All the best Brooking
