2.40 Wetherby War Poet Been waiting ages for this very well handicapped hurdler to make his seasonal debut. 2.10 Aintree Big Fella Thanks Has twice arrived swinging near the head of affairs in the GN, only to fade away in the last 2f. Loves these fences, gets 4m, gets 4m2f even, just doesn't get 4m4f so he won't be winning the National. This, then, may be his big day.
Lucky 31 on my competition picks: 12.00 Aintree Buthelezi - former John Gosden runner, rated as high as 105 on the flat, makes his debut for John Ferguson. The stable is in really good nick at the moment and I'm sure he'll be very straight for this. 12.55 Sandown One Lucky Lady - the only Henderson runner at Sandown without cramped odds, she looks a decent bet at around the 6/1 mark having good form on soft and at Sandown. 1.15 Wetherby American Legend - surprising to see AP at Wetherby rather than Sandown or Aintree but Jonjo sends a powerful team and American Legend looks to have an outstanding chance here. The 4YO is the least exposed in the race and stayed on really well last time out over a shorter trip. 3.20 Aintree Little Josh - thanks to Nass for pointing him out yesterday, he goes really well fresh, loves the mud and looks back down to a decent mark. 3.30 Wetherby Plain Sailing - beautifully bred by Manduro out of a Dynaformer mare, he should be up to taking this
Condolences Heis, on your loss Big Fella Thanks for me too in the Becher, but not a race to go mad on. Gutted that Pricewise has gone for Ifbutandwhynot - I put it in the competition last night but left my bets until this morning and now the price has gone.
Off to Sandown today lads (I think/hope). Am I alone in thinking that Sanctuaire might be the one for today? Also on the card I think the odds on Golden Hoof is worth opposing. Beckani gave Pendra close to a stone when 8L 2nd and Lord Protector and even Theatrelands have form behind some useful types. I like Henderson's One Lucky Lady in the mares hurdle, Aruladar to do the very interesting Sam Winner. Need to look at the Listed 2.30 Hurdle (any thoughts guys?) and I'll wing the last with whatever shrapnel I have left in my pocket Anyone spotted any mudlarks at Sandown today?
Sorry I do have 1 for the listed 2.30, Soft Song off bottom weight. Dickie Johnson does 10-00 for this. Take the hint
Ha!Ha! Good morning, Oddy. Let's be Devil's Advocate! Sprinter Sacre's whole reputation is based on The Arkle! He beat rubbish at Aintree (Toubab) and Kempton (A useless Peddler's Cross who allowed him a soft lead). In his other race of note ( at Newbury), he beat the highly rated French Opera 6 lengths- who hit fences. French Opera also hit fences against Sanctuaire but the latter beat him 23 lengths. It all has to be proven yet. I personally favour Sprinter Sacre, but Sanctuaire may turn out to be another Dunkirk- and he was hyped up/unbeatable in a big novice clash- and was caned by Buona Notte.
Tam that win at Newbury was on the steel hard held and he broke Barnbrook Again's course record. He's never been off the bridle and he won't be today - he will breeze past Sanctuaire after the pond fence and Ruby won't see which way he went
Sanctuaire for me today as well. I agree with what most have said, that come Cheltenham sprinter sacre will win the queen mother but today is not Cheltenham and is not the queen mother. I may be proved completely wrong and sprinter sacre may well walk away with it but I could not be touching him at 1/2
Only had a quick look but looks like Hendo has a strong bunch at Sandown. Reckon he could win the 5 races he has entries in..
Bald Fred the welcher has priced the tingle creak up at 4/1 the field on a handicap system. sprinter sacre +0 sanctuaire +3.5 kumbeshwar +22 doeslessthanme +25 his excellency +25 idarah +28 Any value to be had in this? Another interesting horse to look out for today, is hepworth in the 2:15 at lingfield. Been off for nearly a year having only raced once. Came second in the same race that Gosden previously supplied the runner ups in gertrude bell and izzi top. 4/6 though so just a watching brief.
Heis sorry to hear of your father-in-law condolences to you and your family. one for me today ROI DU MEE 1-50 navan best of luck all today,
I got this horse through on my tracker this morning and was wondering where on earth it came from haha
Already at Sandown - weather superb, crowd filling up and Kauto Star due to parade round in a few minutes time! Should be a great day
I think SS will catch and overhaul the Nicholls horse but not value for me at 1/2 whereas I think Sanctuaire priced about right at 5/2. I will dabble on a Trifecta as without French Opera His Excellency is a great price at 50/1 to nick 3rd spot. Ballabriggs is a great price at 10/1 in the Becher and will get stuck in to that. I like the look of Hinterland at 7/2 against the Barbarian . Didn't do well at Exeter but Ruby said on the ML that he will try and get him to settle much better today. Over hurdles Hinterland was rated 148 to Captain Conan 147 and he gets 6lb WFA allowance today so well worth a punt. Brave stand by Ashwin to keep the India innings going but effectively 32 for 9 . Surely another great victory beckons for Captain Cook and his men tomorrow ; on top of pummelling the AB's last week a great finale to Britain's greatest sporting year
12.05 Lingfield Handsome Stranger 40/1 Not a horse to get too heavily involved with but David Evans 2 year old arguably has the best form in the entire race on what was his sole start back in June and although its a complete unknown as to how he's progressed since then 40/1 looks absolutely massive. Handsome Stranger's only career start to date came for Dermot Weld at Limerick on Good to Yielding ground when running a perfectly adequate 7.75L beaten 6th of 7 and he certainly didn't look the finished article at that stage. Although he never looked like reaching the frame, the form of that race has worked out incredibly well. The winner Probably (who had experience) has subsequently gone on to win a Group 2 whilst the 2nd Kingston Jamaica has gotten beaten a neck in a Group 3. In addition, the other 4 horses in the race are rated 82, 74, 75 and 75 respectively so it was most definitely an above average maiden. For one reason or another, this former 55,000 Gns purchase was sold to David Evans and in addition to his debut effort his breeding stacks up being a half brother to numerous winners including the French Group 3 winning Best Dating and with David Evans in flying form and Adam Kirby a good jockey booking I've had a small e/w if he's fully wound up, although I think he looks a longer term project
12.55 Sandown Rosairlie 14/1 NAP I absolutely adore this 4 year old who has landed two hefty bets for me on the flat which many of you will remember and my betting size will not change today as I think she is going to take a hell of a lot of beating and I cannot quite believe she is 14/1. Formerly with Harry Dunlop, Rosairlie has absolutely flourished in both codes since joining Micky Hammond in February this year and she is an absolute credit to all connections involved. When with her former trainer, she always seemed to have a fair amount of ability but she didn't always seem to be completely genuine but she couldn't be any more different now as she seems to love her racing. She made her first for Micky Hammond when running a not at all knocked about 3rd in a Novice Hurdle which was clearly to get her a handicap mark and she was assigned a mark of 92 on the basis of her two hurdles runs(first was for Dunlop). Micky Hammond sent her straight into a handicap on just her 3rd start over jumps and she proved that her initial mark was definitely on the lenient side when winning going away and worth more than 2.25L margin of victory suggests over an extended 2m at Hexham in March this year. That race which was run on good ground that wouldn't have been ideal has some a pretty decent look about it with the 2nd Overpriced winning a maiden hurdle and novice hurdle subsequently and she is now rated 34lb higher than that run. After this, Rosairlie had he first run on the flat for Micky Hammond when running a belter over 18f at Pontefract to finish 3rd before resuming her hurdling career when making it 2 from 2 in handicaps on what was her last start in that sphere back in March. Upped in trip to an extended 2m4f on heavy ground at Hexham, Rosairlie ran out a very impressive winner and I was very taken by her performance. Upped 8lb to a mark of 100, she excelled in the testing conditions and improved significantly for the step up in trip as she hit the front under todays's jockey Joe Colliver rounding the home turn and she readily quickened clear when asked under fairly minimal urgings. She came to the final flight with ears pricked and in the run in she pretty much pulled herself up but she had the race sewn up at that stage and again she is value for much more than the 3.25L suggests. I couldn't have been more impressed with her that day as she jumped immaculately and couldn't have won anymore easily. The form of that race looks decent with the 2nd River Dragon winning off the same mark in good fashion on his next start over hurdles (7 months later) and I was very impressed with her that day although it was nowhere near as competitive an event as todays will be she dispatched of her rivals with ease. Although that was her last start over hurdles, she has been kept busy on the flat and she has been similarly progressive in that sphere as well landing two of her 4 starts and she is now rated 14lb higher on the flat the she was prior to her final start over hurdles which tells me that she is still improving and she definitely has significant scope to continue her progression over hurdles. For her victory at Hexham, Rosairlie was upped 15lb to a mark of 115 and although going up more than a stone for a victory may seem excessive I certainly don't think its near the cap on her ability. Rosairlie steps up into a tough looking Class 3 race but I really think we've yet to see anywhere near the best of her over hurdles and I think she's going to finish the season rated much higher than what she's on at the moment. Kentford Grey Lady is a horse that I like and I don't think a mark of 135 is overly harsh but there are so many question marks about her I couldn't be having her at any price. Emma Lavelle's string aren't firing too well, the testing ground is an unknown, its her seasonal reappearance and she'll definitely have bigger targets later in the season and she has to shoulder a top weight. Although I think she has the ability to win this I am very, very happy to take her on with Rosairlie. I think its very interesting that this filly returns to Sandown (won at the course on the flat) as it represents a 7 hour round trip from up north for Micky Hammond and she is his only runner at the track in the past 5 years in both codes (he saddles two at Sandown but Rosairlie looks to have the better chance). Joe Colliver takes the ride again and he seems to get on with this filly very well and his 7lb claim is a huge bonus in what will be very testing conditions. Including the jockey's claim, Rosairlie will be effectively bottom weight as she will carry a lovely racing weight of 9-13 and its hard to see Kentford Grey Lady giving her 27lb. She should absolutely relish testing conditions more than most and stamina should not be an issue either as she won over this trip at Hexham and is a resolute stayer on the flat. Although Micky Hammond is without a winner for a few months and that would normally be a big concern, I just think Rosairlie loves racing too much and I'm not concerned in the slightest if I'm honest! She's been off the track for 133 days and although her ability to run after a break is a bit of an unknown this is a race with decent prize money and the fact she's making such a long trip leads me to believe that connections feel that she is spot on. 2-2 in handicap hurdles and completely unexposed, I really, really fancy Rosairlie to run a massive race and I will be completely shocked if she fails to make the frame. 14/1 is a gross misrepresentation of her chances and I think she will win this in good style before going on to bigger and better things.
Is it worth laying Sanctuaire for a place? The theory being that he goes off too fast and falls in a hole when Sprinter Sacre passes him?
