I felt moved to write this article as I haven't been so excited about the staying chasers division for many a year. Don't get me wrong, Kauto Star and Denman were absolute superstars and their prodigeous feats will live long in the memory but, looking at the Cheltenham Gold Cup market tonight, it seems to me a long, long time since we have seen so many potentially top class chasers being aimed at the blue riband. I have actually found the last 2 renewals of the CGC relatively disappointing in retrospect - in 2011 two ageing warriors usurped by a young upstart and in 2012 Synchronised beating The Giant Bolster will hardly go down as one of the great races. Whilst no disrespect is meant to the winners, the fields in those two races simply lacked depth and, in 10-15 years time I'm sure neither event will be talked of as a "classic" CGC. Why do I think this year will be different? Well, there does now finally seem to be real strength in depth in the division. Let us look at the main protagonists in the betting: 5/1 Bobs Worth - already a dual festival winner, having taken the Albert Bartlett in 2011 and the RSA in 2012, he jumped to the head of the market with a thoroughly professional display to lift the Hennessy off a mark of 160. He travels superbly well, jumps economically and really relishes a scrap up the Cheltenham hill. The breathing operation he had last winter seems to have had the desired effect and he really does look the finished article - he has tactical speed, stamina, is a beautiful jumper and has the heart of a lion. As he crossed the line yesterday Simon Holt proclaimed " A star is born". He could well be right. 6/1 Sir Des Champs - another dual festival winner, having come from another parish to land the Martin Pipe conditionals in 2011 and then running out a very convincing winner of the Jewson in 2012. He then went on to demonstrate his stamina, winning an admittedly weak Grade1 at Punchestown over 3m 1f on soft/heavy (the 2nd, Shop DJ, finished 9th in a handicap chase today off 132, beaten 30 lengths) and we have yet to see him this season. For me he still has plenty to prove and would maybe not be so short in the betting with different connections. Nevertheless, a tremendously exciting prospect. 7/1 Silviniaco Conti - Paul Nicholls' charge won the Persian War Novices hurdle and also took the Coral Hurdle as a novice in a hack canter before finding life a little tough as a novice chaser last term. He was beaten by Grands Crus and Invictus but came good at Aintree to take the Mildmay Novices Chase in very convincing fashion from Champion Court. He kicked off this season with an effortless win in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and showed that was no fluke by taking the Betfair Chase at Haydock from Long Run, under an inspired Ruby Walsh. 8/1 Long Run - the strength of the market is reflected in the fact that the 2011 winner, and the red-hot favourite for the 2012 renewal, is only 4th strongest in the market. Whilst he has been consistent, the nagging feeling remains that March 2011 was the pinnacle of his career and he will struggle to reach those heights again. I would love to see Barry Geraghty ride him, but there seems even less chance of that now that Bobs Worth is on the scene. 9/1 Flemenstar - the best novice chaser in Ireland last season having won their Arkle and followed up in the Powers Gold Cup in April. He opened his account this season in the Fortriana Chase, readily dispatching Big Zeb over 2 miles. He will now be progressively stepped up in trip via the John Durkan (2m 4f, potential meeting with Sir Des Champs) and the Lexus (3 miles, could be one of the best races for years) and time will tell whether he gets the trip. Travels like the wrath of god, jumps like a stag (he's never touched a twig in his career) and trained by one of the true characters of the sport, Peter Casey, there will be fireworks guaranteed wherever he runs. 16/1 First Lieutenant - 8 lengths 3rd to Bobs Worth in the Hennessy in receipt of 1 pound, and 2nd to the Henderson runner in the RSA, he offers an invaluable yardstick between the English and Irish form. He has been up and down in trip and is versatile, but for me he is probably only about 3rd or 4th in the pecking order in Ireland. We then have horses like Al Ferof, the Supreme Novices Hurdle winner in 2011, who slammed the field in the Paddy Power off 159; last years runner-up The Giant Bolster, who seemingly continues to progress and ran a fine 3rd to Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair; Tidal Bay, who ran a heroic 3rd in the Hennessy off top weight; Hidden Cyclone, who was less than 2 lengths behind Sir Des Champs in January and continues to rack up impressive victories in Ireland; Last Instalment, who conquered First Lieutenant in the Fort Leney last season but was halted by injury in his novice season; Cue Card, the 2010 Champion Bumper winner who has courted the headlines ever since but seems now to be blossoming as a second season chaser. The list seems to go on and on. The 2 major races over the Christmas period, the King George at Kempton and the Lexus at Leopardstown, are already looking like absolute classic contests in their own right and the winner of those heats may not necessarily prevail at Cheltenham in March. But looking back over the last few years, looking at who Kauto Star and Denman beat (horses like Neptune Collonges, My Will, Roll Along, Barbers Shop, Niche Market, Madison Du Berlais et al) we seem to have a much superior calibre of animal heading to Prestbury Park this time around and it promises to be a vintage renewal. Thoughts ????
I was super impressed with Tidal Bay yesterday, and that was a serious performance off of top weight. I know we can't take the weights, and the fact that they relate to lengths literally, but Tidal Bay would have beaten Bob's Worth yesterday, if it was an exact science. Paul Nicholls has evidently found the key to this supremely talented, but admittedly bonkers equine athlete, and I believe he would be placed in the Gold Cup at least if indeed they sent him there. Having said that the level of the irish form will have a lot of bearing on the result in March, and I agree it will be one of the most fascinating contests in a long time, if all the main protagonists turn up.
If all the protagonists progress like they look like they will it could be an absolutely stunning race. It was indeed a fantastic weight carrying performance by Tiday Bay but even if Bobs Worth carried an extra 6lb and it was level weights then I'm fairly sure he would have won. Seemed to have a fair bit left in the tank. It will be very interesting to see if Flemenstar goes for the Gold Cup or pitches up in the Ryanair instead. Connections seem extremely patient with him and given that he is apparently a horrible traveler they may want to go down the latter route and see how he takes to everything. However, if he comes out and puts a monster effort at the Lexus that may force their hand.
Oddy, absolutely great review! There's a lot to take in at the moment, but I have to say that Sir Des Champs and Bob's Worth are both two massive contenders- not to mention the rest ! I've had too much wine this evening to offer in depth comments, so I'll save them for later.
Great piece Oddy and I think you are right. There is also the chance that some of the two-milers may stretch it and come into this picture. Good read.
" But looking back over the last few years, looking at who Kauto Star and Denman beat (horses like Neptune Collonges, My Will, Roll Along, Barbers Shop, Niche Market, Madison Du Berlais et al) we seem to have a much superior calibre of animal heading to Prestbury Park this time around and it promises to be a vintage renewal." Or we will have masses of hype popped? The reason that you can make a comment like that is because you know the form that came after their efforts in the Gold Cup, and it could easily be the same story this year, whereby the form looks strong and fascinating going into the race, but then disappoints coming out of it. We are lucky that we have a very strong crop of second season chasers, with Bob's Worth, Silvianico Conti and the Irish stars Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs, but those horses still have to find their peak levels and only time will tell if that gets them anywhere near the Denman (who was a stone higher than BW in his 2nd Hen win) level in the Hennessy or Kauto Star in his King George's. If the current crop get anywhere near the top performances by that pair, we are in for a very exciting season, one of the best for a long time, because we have a strength in depth of Chasers in all distances and we have intriguing pictures being set by the wonderful Big Bucks and the masses who are targetting Champion Hurdle success. A very interesting bit of work Oddy, I do agree that it is fascinating to see where this crop end up, hopefully all will turn up sound at Cheltenham in March. But are we really saying "The King is dead, long live the king?"
Without doubt Oddy, it's shaping up to be a mouth watering season ahead. I would look to the festival hurdle races of 2011 & how many of them are turning into a fantastic set of chasers. The Supreme from that year is arguably the best in modern history. I think every horse from that race, has gone on to win again. Let's hope they keep on improving. The only one i'm not convinced with yet(from your list above)is Sir Des Champs, think he's another Fingal Bay & vastly overrated. Only time will tell!
As my regular readers are aware I was cheering along with the best of them when Bobs Worth triumphed on Saturday. And what a tremendous training performance by Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, as his 8 month plan, hatched after the horse won the RSA Chase, bore fruition. However, I would most certainly not, and I do mean not, be rushing out to take quotes as low as 9/2 for Bobs Worth re the CGC. Let’s just settle back and review the fact that he won a handicap by 3 lengths from Tidal Bay when in receipt of 6 pounds! Is that really strong enough form to make a horse CGC favourite?!? Not, and I do mean not, in my book. I think Bobs Worth put up a very fine performance at the weekend and has undoubted potential but in no way, at this stage, is he a 9/2 shot in my opinion. If someone held a gun to my head then I’d say the first 4 home, if they remain sound, would be Sir Des Champs, Long Run, Bobs Worth and Silviano Conti in that order. I just loved the way that the first named, of that quartet, travelled and jumped at Cheltenham last March and to my eye that day looked something very, very special. Whilst in my book only a bally fool would discount Long Run as he has been there and done it in the past and looks no back number to this correspondent. The question of how does the current brigade compare to that of Denman/Kauto and even Sychronised/The Giant Bolster is indeed a fascinating one and one that I suppose we won’t know the answer to, or indeed the perceived answer to, until next March because as we are all aware promise isn’t always fulfilled at the very ‘top table’.
I would say it is a very competitive and open year with no horse that is the one to beat, which is why I feel there could be a lot of these horses in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. However, I do feel this race could cut up quite badly if they all meet earlier in the season, which seems to be the plan at the moment. There seems to be a lot of strength in depth in the chasing ranks at the moment and it looks a fascinating contest right now. Anyone of these horses will have to achieve a hell of a lot to eclipse the memories of Denman and Kauto.
Not really Nass, I'm just excited by the strength in depth and competitive looking nature of the division at the moment. I would maybe liken it to the 2 mile chase division about 15 years ago with the likes of Martha's Son, Viking Flagship, Deep Sensation, and then a little later Flagship Uberalles, Direct Route and Edredon Bleu. There were some terrific races between that lot because there was strength in depth in the races, and we often saw some spectacular finishes. Much as I can appreciate the demolition jobs of Kauto Star and Denman, wouldn't it be great to see Bobs Worth, Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar and Last Instalment flying across the final fence and knuckling down to scrap it out up the hill in the CGC?
As a cynical old fool odddy I would have to say that if there are four of them fighting out the finish in March then none of them are exceptional. It's great that there is so much potential on the scene as it makes it far more interesting. the more competition the better. I personally think it will be a long time before we see two giants such as Kauto and Denman come along in the same era. It is however wonderful to see that we have so many with so much to look forward to.
I suppose you're right stick, I would just love to see the NH equivalent of Dancing Brave's Arc - so many top horses in a race, all of them running more or less to their true form and one exceptional champion just prevailing in the last 50 yards.
I think we will know a lot more after the KG and Lexus, but this new crop still have a lot to achieve. Bobs worth was impressive but he won by just over 3 lengths off a mark of 160 . Denman won his first Hennessy off 161, but by 11 lengths so BW is still some 9lbs behind what Denman achieved at the same stage. Flemenstar beat 159 rated Big Zeb by 7 lengths in receipt of 3 lbs, which puts him around the 163 mark . Champion Court got beat off 155 at Ascot which puts Sir Des C around the 160 mark . People forget that Long Run was rated 182 after his 2011 win and certainly ran in the high 170's when chasing home Kauto in the KG last year, some 16 lengths clear of Captain Chris and Somersby both decent 165 rated chasers. I don't believe he has become a bad horse overnight but we will see what he achieves in the KG. He ran a respectable 168 race at Haydock, some ten pounds below his current rating, but he improved half a stone between Haydock and kempton last year. Silviniaco posted a low 170's rating at Haydock which at 6 is very impressive and for me he is the one they should all fear, though i think PN must give him a Cheltenham prep as experience of those fences is invaluable
