Might not have time to post the morn so my sporting yankee - all at Newbury 12.15 Minella Stars 1.25 Rolling Aces 2.35 Ardlui 3.40 Ulck Du Lin Frisco Depot in the HGC
2.30 Fairyhouse Joxer 11/1 I think Bill Harney's Joxer is a fascinating contender on his handicap debut and I think 11/1 about this 5 year old is definitely overpriced as he is a horse I have always rated quite highly. After showing a lot of talent in bumpers by winning on debut and finishing an excellent 2nd to the talented Moscow Mannon, Joxer made his hurdling debut at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival when finishing an excellent 0.5L beaten 2nd behind Willie Mullins highly thought of Midnight Game (who had hurdling experience) in the mud last year. He improved on that effort to win on his next start by 1L to subsequent Supreme Novices 5th Allure of Illusion (although that rival was badly hampered and may have won otherwise) with the pair pulling 20L clear of the remainder with the talented Rory O'Moore back in 6th. I actually backed him for the Supreme Novices after this victory as I was pretty impressed with him and although he'll probably never reach that level he won't need to in this contest. For his 3 start over hurdles he was stepped up into Grade 2 company for the first time when sent off a 4/1 shot and although ultimately a well beaten 4th that doesn't tell the whole story. Joxer was travelling well within himself coming up to 3 out before making a shuddering error which put paid to his chances and although I don't think he would have gotten near Trifolium he certainly would have finished closer. He had 2 more starts last season again in Grade 2s and he ran flat in both for some reason or another and at the time he looked regressive. Joxer had a 7 month break at the end of his first season and he came back with a bang with a hugely impressive 2nd behind the extremely talented Monksland in the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at Down Royal at the start of the month and it most definitely seemed as if Joxer was back to his best. Held up in the rear of the 6 runner field, they definitely went a very decent clip and Joxer followed through the eventual victor through travelling pretty well within himself and was pretty much up alongside Monksland at the last before Noel Meade's charge pulled out a little bit more to win in fine fashion. Although Monksland always had Joxer covered, he certainly was made to work for the win and it was a really, really impressive performance from Joxer on seasonal debut (same as Monksland) as he pulled nearly 10L clear of the remainder. Joxer beat some very nice horses that day easily (all race fit bar last to finish Edeymi) including Miley Shah and Shadow Eile and it certainly signaled his early first season exploits were no fluke. He makes his handicap debut in this very competitive Grade B handicap hurdle off a mark of 135 under top weight and I think he could prove to be better than this. In my opinion he's the only horse in the field who has the potential to compete in the upper echelons over hurdles and he could prove too classy for this field. With regular pilot Bryan Cooper over riding First Lieutenant in England, Michael Butler takes over in the saddle and I think his 5lb claim could prove crucial as it drops him to an official racing weight of 11-2. Trainer Bill Harney has got his small string in good order at present with 2 wins from 11 runners this month and although its going to be a tough task to concede weight all around to this field I'm hopeful of a big run from Joxer to land this valuable contest.
12.15 Newbury Hunters Lodge 9/2 I'm not one to normally suggest backing a horse e/w at such a short price but I really cannot see Hunters Lodge out of the first 3 and he looks to have a fantastic chance to win this. Nigel Twiston-Davies 6 year old was a pretty average hurdler but this former Point winner looks a completely transformed horse over the bigger obstacles and he has registered 2 wins from his 3 starts since sent chasing. Hunters Lodge made his chasing debut at the end of September on his seasonal reappearance off a mark of 107 at Market Rasen over 2m6.5f when scoring in fine fashion under Richard Johnson. Settled just off the pace, Hunters Lodge got a little outpaced at the business end of things but he stayed on nicely when asked as he forged to the lead two out and he stayed on resolutely up the run in to win going away by 4L. It was a fine debut over fences and he improved again to score again on his next start in a better race at Cheltenham. In an competitive 17 runner Amateur Handicap under todays rider Ryan Hatch over an extended 3m, Hunters Lodge sat in behind the pace and he looked a little outpaced after 3 out but under good riding he was sent to the front before the final two flights. He may have been a little fortuitous to win that day as Gordon Elliott's Romanesco had probably just headed him coming to the last but he fell at the final flight which allowed Hunters Lodge to win under strong driving (he hung and idled a bit) to score by 3L. The form of that Class 3 handicap looks strong with the 16L beaten 5th Time For Spring winning on his only subsequent start off a 2lb lower mark whilst the unfortunate Romanesco sauntered to a very easy success on his next start off the same mark before starting favourite in the Troytown where he travelled smoothly into contention but he was unable to quicken up in the testing conditions. Upped 7lb for that success, Hunters Lodge's final start came a couple of weeks ago at Cheltenham in another Amateur Riders handicap over the same C+D where he ran an excellent 3rd in a hot contest 2 weeks ago in what was probably his best effort to date. Off a mark of 122 and again under Ryan Hatch, Hunters Lodge again settled just off the pace but he seemed flat footed when the pace quickened and he dropped back to 6th or 7th and about 15L off the pace in the long run in before the final two flights but he stayed on resolutely up the hill where he was finishing better than anything to go down by 4.5L. The form of that contest looks very strong given that the winner Swing Bill was clearly well handicapped as he landed the race for the 2nd year in a row off the same mark whilst the 2nd Sizing Santiago (the only horse that finished the race) won on his only subsequent start off a 3lb higher mark and it looks like being a very hot contest. I think the 1lb he has been raised to a mark of 123 looks very fair and he is definitely unexposed and progressive over fences. He again competes in a Amateur Riders handicap and I think its a huge bonus that Ryan Hatch and Hunters Lodge have built up a partnership which cannot be said for most of the field. He steps up to 3m2.5f for the first time today and I think this is a massive bonus given has been outpaced at times during the races and the way he powered to the line on his last start leads me to believe he will improve for the extra distance. Although he has to shoulder the burden of top weight, Ryan Hatch takes off an extremely valuable 7lb and I think he is one of the best riders in the race. I definitely see Rey Nacardo as a big danger as Charlie Longsdon believes that rival is a stone better at Newbury but his last win at the track came off only a 2lb lower mark so I don't think Longsdon means he can perform to a mark of 136 around here. Moreover, he has a very inexperienced pilot on board and Ryan Hatch is definitely a more accomplished and better jockey. With Nigel Twiston-Davies in great form and with this trainer/jockey pairing landing this race last year, I am very confident that Hunters Lodge can improve again to take this Class 3 handicap and I think 9/2 is an excellent price.
3.40 Newbury Ulck Du Lin 5/1 Should probably start with the big hint about Paul Nicholls 4 year old's chances which is Ruby Walsh gets down to 10-1 to take the ride which clearly implies he is strongly fancied. Putting that to one side as it wasn't what initially attracted me to Ulck Du Lin, he rates an extremely fascinating contender on what is just his 2nd start over fences in the UK and what is his handicap debut in this sphere. Previously trained in France, he was a winner of two hurdle races and a chase in 5 starts before arriving at Nicholls yard and he's clearly an unexposed horse. He landed a 5 runner chase in fine fashion in France by 5L from a horse who subsequently was a Grade 3 winning hurdler and beaten 0.75L in a Grade 1 hurdle whilst the 20L beaten 3rd Farlow Des Mottes has gone on to land a Grade 3 upped in distance so it reads as pretty strong form. According to the Racing Post, Ulck Du Lin arrived in England in late February and he became somewhat of a big talking point prior to the Cheltenham Festival as many people thought he was a plot horse as Nicholls decided to have his stable debut at the Cheltenham Festival in the Grade 3 handicap Fred Winter off a mark of 130. Nicholls denied this and it proved very much the case as he could only finish midfield. Ulck Du Lin didn't really live up to the hype in his final 2 hurdle starts last year either as he was beaten in a Novices event before finishing an ok 3rd in a handicap off a mark of 128. That was his final start of last season in April and I think he is going to prove to be a completely different animal this season as he will have a full summer under his belt and Nicholls will be have been able to get essential pre-season training done with him. Ulck Du Lin made a very eye catching debut over fences for Nicholls at the end of last month at Stratford over an extended 2m5f on soft ground at the end of September. That day he put on an excellent display of jumping barring one small mistake and he went clear with the leading 3 still travelling extremely well before turning into the home straight. However, when Harry Skelton asked him for more Ulck Du Lin found absolutely nothing as he came home a 14L beaten 3rd. Although a lot of negatives can easily be taken from this, I definitely view it as a positive for a number of reasons. Firstly, it was his first run for 6 months and I think he got very tired and 2ndly I don't think he stayed the 2m5.5f trip on soft ground as he certainly hasn't looked a bridle horse on his other starts. He makes his handicap debut off a mark of 126 today and I think this could prove to be a very lenient mark and I, and I am sure connections, will be desperately disappointed if he is unable to score of this mark. He's dropped back to 2m1f today which certainly looks like it will benefit him greatly and he also gets a 4lb weight for age allowance which is very handy given he is only 1 month away from turning 5. This looks a very tough field but he gets in at a lovely racing weight of 10-1 and there is no way in hell Ruby is getting down to this weight to ride a horse that connections feel doesn't have a seriously good chance. Unexposed and I think on a very lenient mark, Ulck Du Lin has often promised a lot and I definitely think today will be the day that he delivers and in doing so landing this race for Paul Nicholls for the 4th time since 2004.
aye Mikael had the measure of Mount Benbulben last time 3 out before the race had even started when he couldnt see off the handicap rag El Fontan I backed Panther Claw first time this season, hes not in the same class as Mount Benbulben, as for Mikael, I won a fortune off him as a novice hurdler and I gave it back in his novice chase season, hes long gone, Mount Benbulben wasnt even out of second gear when he fell that day and id stake my life on it he would have found 10 times more than that bookie horse, if Mikael goes off odds on tomorrow ill be running ladbrokes on monday. Mount Benbulben is a Cheltenham horse, Mikael Dhagunet is lucky to still be with WIllie Mullins.
I wouldn't be as dismissive as Mikael Dhag as you are but I certainly agree that I think Mount Benbulben is the better animal. I think he has a serious engine on him and if he jumps round clear I expect him to win well.
7.50 Wolves Compton Bell 16/1 I think Hans Adielsson's lightly raced 3 year old is a fascinating contender on what is only his 5th start and he very much caught my eye on his last start on the back of 422 day absence when a staying on 6.5L beaten 5th over a mile at Lingfield 10 days ago in a first time tongue tie on what was his handicap debut off a mark of 55. I've looked back at his 3 races as a 2 year old and he didn't look completely devoid of ability and handicapping was always going to be his level. A 34,000 GNS purchase back in October 2010, Compton Bell is certainly bred to do better being a half brother to the Listed winning fillies Brisk Breeze and the German trained Belle Syrienne. In addition, his half brother Beau Chapeau also won over in Germany so he should definitely have more to offer than he currently has. Moreover, his siblings all seemed to come into their own when 3 years old so I think Compton Bell will certainly be a better animal now past his Juvenile year. He made a very pleasing reintroduction at Wolves last week when I thought he was an eye catching staying on 5th under what was very tender handling by George Baker on his handicap debut on the back of a long break. Held up in mid division, Compton Bell travelled nicely into the race before getting outpaced 3f. Under hands and heels riding and not under strong urging, Compton Bell made some rather nice headway under Baker up the home straight and he was never nearer then at the finish under what was understandably a very sympathetic ride. Given that he was off the track for so long, I don't think you could expect much more than what he did and given that Lingfield has been a track that has suited those closer to the pace since the track has been resurfaced I think you can upgrade that effort even more. The form of that race looks strong with the 3rd Silly Billy getting beaten a head on his only subsequent start and it was a very nice effort. He's been dropped 1lb in the ratings to a mark of 54 which I feel should definitely not be beyond him. The winner of his last race Percythepinto reopposes on 7lb worse terms and he was priced up as favourite before the big gamble on Frank Sheridan's Tyrur Ted and given the more favourable terms I think Compton Bell is clearly the value call as he will clearly strip fitter for that run. In addition, I think Compton Bell will definitely appreciate the extra 1.5 furlongs as he is stepped up 9.5f as he was outpaced and stayed on well on his last start and the tongue tie is again retained. Richard Kingscote takes the ride on what will only be his 2nd start for the stable and with a good draw in stall 6 I think Compton Bell is a very intriguing runner who I think will run a big race if put into the race.
We obviously don't see it the same way. For me Mount Benbulben has shown nothing over fences to get excited about. Mikael had put that race to bed but buggered up the final 2. Both however are bad prices at 5/4 and 6/4. It'll be interesting to see who's right.
2.35 NEWBURY AT FISHER'S CROSS 11/2 Like the look of this one with the champ on top. Bottom weight in this handicap with form on the ground. Should go close.
Quite rightly so, but I am worried about the Henderson horse in the race. Not backing because of that worry. My two today are - Hennessy - Hold On Julio - with the ground being fine, I think Hold On Julio is set to run a massive race in the Hennessy Gold Cup. He ran a stormer at Cheltenham a month ago, when I thought he was looking a little short of work, he ran with such promise that even with a little rise in the weights I think he is potentially well handicapped at the moment. His form from Sandown last season is very good, when giving a beating to good old Neptune Collonges and doing so in a style that showed him to be a classy horse. He ran poorly at HQ on his last start of that season (after a few issues with staying fit) and they wisely put him away for this season. He started the season well, and I think he will improve again for a return to a more conventional track at Newbury, and as long as his jumping is sound (has made mistakes) he looks nailed on to be in the top five at the finish. I am sure that he is good enough to win, and I am pretty confident that he will. 9/1 EW 3.40 Ulck Du Lin - ROTO has summed it up perfectly, I will just concur with his statement.
The bookies are taking the punters on...5/1 Bobs Worth readily available. 10/1 First Lieutenant. What actually is being backed?!
Bad race the Hennessy I can see a shock ...no confidence behind anything....bits and pieces of cash for Longsdens Frisco Depot.
Bobs Worth has similar profile to Trabolgan and Denman and is still a decent price. Tidal Bay will be staying on at the end and Lion Na Bearnai is way overpriced at 40/1 so those are my 3, with Bob to win it. Elsewhere at Newbury, I'll be backing Ma Filleule, Benheir and Gus MacRae
Where's SBC? This looks like a race with more plots than an Agatha Christie novel. Honestly could make a case for pretty much ever runner.
Feel like I've been looking at the Newbury 1.25 all morning. Have finally plumped for the Henderson horse Seven Woods based on his fine debut 3rd over fences. He was beaten into 3rd that day by subsequent Grade 2 winner Houblon Des Obeaux and the mare Valmari, who was in the process of running a blinder against Dynaste yesterday before falling at the 4th last. I think that makes Seven Woods form about as solid as anything else in the race and the application of first-time blinkers should help focus him on the task at hand. At 8/1 he looks well worth a decent-sized e/w dabble. In the listed mares hurdle Call Me A Star and Eleven Fifty Nine will once again be closely matched but I strongly fancy the Henderson mare Ma Filleule to usurp them both. She travelled very powerfully on debut and looked a class act.
Agreed. Currently 11/2 with Betfred, but that'll be gone by post time imo. The bookies are taking each other on rather than the horse.
If Bob's Worth does a Denman then fair play to him. He's certainly game enough. However being a sucker for one that's (a) served me well in the past and (b) has a game front running style, I'll have a ew dabble on Fruity O'Rooney @ 25s with paddypower paying 5 places. This one has not had a mention all week but ran very well at the Festival when runner up to Alfie Sherrin. That day The Package was a further 6 lengths back in 4th and reoppposes on 3lb worse terms so I'd be confident that one will finish behind my selection at least! In the lucky last I'm with Oh Crick @ 12s as a consistent sort on a decent mark. I'm also wondering whether Takeroc has slipped down the weights far enough to be competitive again. A little ew investment @ 33s I reckon.
