Just putting this up just now, outers for the night Fairyhouse 1.55 Mount Benbulben My bet of the day, right handed, step up in trip, if he jumps round they wont get near him. Frisco Depot 10/1 in Hennessy good luck whatever your on
In addition to the antepost bets on Diamond Harry and Trifolium 3 for tomorrow so far, write ups on the way. 12.15 Newbury Hunters Lodge 9/2 1.25 Newbury Gores Island 33/1 3.40 Newbury Ulck Du Lin 5/1 I e-mailed Noel Chance about Gores Island and he said that, although he would be trying to win, he may have a little too much weight and will probably feel the pinch at the end of the race. I got the impression that they don't really know how good he is over fences and he could be up to defying this mark. I won't be doing a write up for him now although I wouldn't discourage anyone from having a small bet.
So many question marks around that race Boris. Mikael had the measure of Mount Benbulben LTO and I'd expect the same tomorrow. I think Mikael suffered from not having any company over the final flights to keep his attention on the job at hand. Problem there is that do you want to take probable odds on about a horse who so often is let down by his jumping? Mount Benbulben put in a poor show LTO irrespective of the fall so I wouldn't rush to back him. I've been underwhelmed. With so many jumping and ability worries about the front two a horse like Panther Claw could steal this and if I was betting in it I'd look at the Giggy horse to run a big race after a promising debut over fences against decent rivals.
I wonder what the market will look like in the listed mares hurdle at Newbury tomorrow. If eleven fifty nine opens at the projected 7/1 she's got to be the value bet I think.
Tricky little race that one Bob ... but Eleven Fiftynine is trading at max 3-1 currently - can't see it going anywhere near 7's. I'm inclined towards the Henderson horse - won as it liked lto and could be anything.
As Diamond Harry was the one that jumped at me in the Hennessy thread I'll have to stick with him. A past winner and only 10.3 to carry. 9 years old so should be stronger than when he won. I just wonder if his poor form has been to keep his weight down for this. Only 3 times has he carried less than 11 stone and won all 3. Only been ridden once by D Jacob - won this race 2 years ago. He has been lumping round 11.6 to 11.12 in his last 5 races. Maybe he isn't built to carry big weights.
He's won carrying 11-12 in a Listed race and Grade 2 over hurdles Ron so I wouldn't necessarily say that. Nick Scholfield on tomorrow not Daryl Jacob Ron
My Hennessy money is going on DUKE OF LUCCA - he gets in off a very nice weight and ran an absolute belter behind Roberto Goldback on his seasonal reappearance. I think he has been laid out for this
Oh bollocks. He's never ridden him before. Ah, wait, D Jacob hadn't ridden him before he got on top and won the Hennessy. Is N Scholfield a good horseman?
Yeah I like him. Would view his booking as a positive over a negative. Would hardly be bent Oddy! He's only had 5 races since winning the Hennessy with 3 being Grade 1s (Gold Cup, Betfair Chase and Betfair Bowl) as well as the Grade 2 Argento. He had a setback before running in the Badger Ales earlier this month (missed the Charlie Hall) so he may have needed the run.
Davy Russell staying in Fairyhouse for a card whose best two races are Grade Bs as opposed to going over to the Hennessy to ride First Lieutenant. Bryan Cooper rode him LTO when Davy chose to ride Quito De La Roque but surely he'd have the ride if he wanted. That not very worrying to anyone who has backed him?
HENNESSEY: HARRY THE VIKING 25/1 e.w Crucial to play each-way I feel because there are top class horses in the mix and two pulled up's in his latest form figures highlight a bit of risk. However, he was pulled up last time after really belting a fence at Cheltenham which made him lose position and obviously knocked the stuffing out of him. Prior to that, he jumped superbly for 15 fences and was as good as cantering with less than a mile to go, whilst some others had begun struggling. To me he shaped like he was ready to defy his handicap mark and that is exactly what he will need to do today- probably improve by around 10lb minimum to make the frame, but as a 7 year old who is so lightly race, so incredibly progressive, I think he is very much worth chancing from way down the weights and he can make it count with a shock performance against the big guns. I don't care what Nicholls says about Tidal Bay, yes we know he is talented but off 11st 12 in a Hennessey you are asking him to be Denman. He isn't and therefore I'd go back to the drawing board and leave him out of my calculations. A staying on 5th as an eyecatcher would be about right. Bob's Worth has to be a danger because he has course form, goes superbly left handed and won the RSA. Top class animal, and if he wants to go on to better things at Grade One open company level, he has to go close off what I consider a very fair handicap mark. First Lieutenant 9/1coming over here in itself is a pretty bold statement and he has major each-way claims, and he rates the saver of the day because he is classy, has couple of runs fitness over Bob's Worth, and is thrice the price despite a cracking battle with him in the RSA. No brainer as a cover bet really. (Although there are at least two better Gigginstown chasers this season!)
Just can't have him ROTO - that was a career best performance to land the Hennessy and he has been nowhere near it since. His run in the Argento was poor and then 3 PUs. Even if they were graded races he should be completing to inspire a bit of confidence. Not a good trend race for 9YOs either. PS in a ****ty mood tonight so don't take it personally
No bother Oddy. I'm happy with the 25s given he loves it around Newbury and he clearly needs to bounce back in a massive way but I think that is more than factored into the price and I'm worth risking it for a horse that could prove absolutely thrown in off his mark
Fruity O'Rooney will set a fierce gallop and make a bold bid from the front; Hold On Julio and Bob's Worth will come at him in the straight. But when the field starts to string out, his finishing surge will be irresistible. Tomorrow is Tidal Bay's day of destiny.
The Package for me in the big race, with Ikorodu Road staying on for a place. I was thinking today it would have been good to go to the Hennessey for the first time in many years as I'm in the vicinity but the supporting card is not good. Amateur and mares races to start with (can't even be bothered to look at the runners for those) and another egg and spoon job for Big Bucks.
Fascinating to see Paddy Brennan heading away from Newbury to ride two Thomas Barr owned/Eddie O'Grady trained runners at Fairyhouse tomorrow. Does he have a retainer for Barr?...not sure he does since Ardlui,owned by TB,runs at Newbury and by electing to partner him PB could have secured a ride in the HGC.
