Evening all, first post this. The more I watch back Al Ferof's performance on Saturday the more i'm convincing myself that he has an outstanding chance of landing this years King George. Big weight carried on soft ground, didn't look like stopping which convinces me he'll stay and there's a good vibe from connections - it really was a stunning performance. 5 weeks til the off Nicholls will have him spot on and with Kauto retired he will have been desperate to find a King George replacement. I'm sure he has the one. I remember after one of his early novice races last year Ruby stated in an interview that he'd be a cracking ride in a King George. Boy, was he right. The big question is when to back him? To me 8/1 looks excellent value as in my mind I have him down as favourite. After the betfair chase I have a feeling he will be. I'm not a fan of Long Run. I see him now as much more of a grinder and a stayer and I really feel we've seen the best of him. The extra distance of the gold cup may see him put in a better performance but I feel after last season he cannot be trusted and the speed he showed two seasons ago has been lost. As a result I don't think he will win on Saturday and I don't think he has the speed to win the King George. Oh and don't get me started on the boy Cohen. Sam 'Woeful' Cohen. Al Ferof will have Ruby on board and not only does he know how to get Long Run beaten, I have a feeling he knows how to get SWC beaten. I can foresee Al Ferof and Ruby running a very similar race to Kauto at Kempton last year and Long Run will be run off his feet. Long Run is currently best priced 7/2 and after Ruby aboard Silviniaco Conti gets the better of SWC at Haydock this weekend I can see that price drifting and Al Ferof could well be the 7/2 4/1 shot for Kempton by Saturday evening. The vibes re long run do seem positive and of course I may well have this totally wrong but this game is all about opinions and i'm taking the opinion that we've seen the best of long run. So it seems like i've answered my question. Surely he needs to be backed now. What about the rest of the King George competition? Finians Rainbow may not run, has question marks over him staying and if Henderson really thought he was a 3 miler why didn't he try it last year? Seems to me like a bit of an after thought and simply does not want him coming up against Sprinter Sacre. Sure he stayed the melling trip well at the back end of last season but for me there are still question marks and it could well end up being his reappearance and as a result may be ring rusty. Silviniaco Conti I suspect will not run in the King George. Nicholls has said he will be aimed at the Gold Cup and may bypass the king george. I see Cue Card as a real danger however I feel he shows a lot of speed. A two miler type of speed and cant help but think if Sprinter sacre wasnt around he'd be champion chase bound. Just a hunch but I feel Al Ferof is more likely to be a stronger stayer. If Al Ferof hadnt of landed on that fence in the Arkle we'd probably already know the answer. As it is we'll have to find out on boxing day. Riverside Theatre is another danger but surely 2 1/2 miles is his trip. He's already had a go in the King George and finished 12 lengths adrift of Long Run two years ago. I'm taking the view that the race isnt for him and i'm also a little worried about the impact his ryanair efforts from last year could have on him. Of course its not unusual for a cheltenham victor to flop at aintree but I'm just keeping in the back of my mind that the ryanair may well have left a mark. We'll see. That leaves us with Grand Crus who if he runs as well as in his feltham victory last year will be bang there. I cant see it though. He's having a breathing operation so will he run? And after the weekend is he really the horse connections hoped he was? I'm not so sure. In my opinion 3 miles is not for Sizing Europe and I don't feel we'll see him at his best - if he even runs. Stick to 2 miles Bromhead! He's also not getting any younger. Kauto Stone may well run but he won't have ruby aboard and I suspect he likes it soft and I also suspect he just isnt good enough. Sir des champs would be a huge threat but I don't think he'll cross the irish sea. If he does i'm sure he could make them all go but I think the only time we'll see Sir Des Champs over here this season will be when winning the gold cup. Right that'll do. I've convinced myself. An 8/1 shot isn't the biggest tip in the world but I haven't been this confident for a long while. It's Al Ferof's King George. He'll be favourite come Saturday.
Excellebnt first post - welcome to the board. Al Ferof does look very good value. If Sizing Europe was to make the trip he'd be very interesting though i stiill have worries about whether he would stay.
Cracking post Bison House and you were spot on regarding Long Run. What do you think the challenge from Ireland will look like? From what I have read so far, it looks like most of their top staying chasers will be staying at home for the Lexus (what a cracking renewal that promises to be). I wonder if Jonjo might be looking to get Alberta's Run to the race in good nick? If the going has "good" in the description there is every chance he could make a bold showing. As for Riverside Theatre, his 2nd to Long Run 2 years ago would entitle him to be involved, although it's worrying we haven't seen him yet. Cue Card would seem an obvious candidate for the race but I still think he will find one or two too good for him. As I sit here tonight, the 6/1 still available about Al Ferof looks about right but I wonder whether he will shorten up much between now and boxing day?
Think this will be too far for Cue Card (I see him as a prime Ryanair candidate) but if he does get the trip he'll take some stopping.He's bred for 3 miles too but hard to disagree with anything you said, for Al Ferof to win like he did off the mark he did was very impressive.
It is a very good post but I have to say I take issue with LONG RUN being described as a "grinder". You dont see him as a King George winner....well he already won one emphatically. Professionally ridden his record would be far more impressive than it is. He has everything, athleticism, high cruising speed and lots of heart. Henderson is a master at getting his horses cherry ripe for Boxing Day and you can bet your bottom dollar he will be tuned to the limit. Kempton suits him too and if his jumping holds up on the day he wont be beaten. Remember two years ago when he cruised up alongside a flat to the boards Kauto Star turning for home! My only reservations about the horse are like everyone the jockey and secondly a probably ill concieved idea that french breds peak early in their careers. He is only 8 and he still has plenty to offer. Hopefully SWC will be injured (not too seriously) in a freak yachting accident! Of the others who we saw this weekend by far the most impressive was CAPTAIN CHRIS and he could run a big race at Kempton if putting in a similar round of jumping. He was fantastic at Ascot. FINIANS RAINBOW was simply dreadful, no way was that his running. He will bounce back I am sure.
I wouldn't say Long Run is a grinder, but he certainly doesn't put fields to bed like he did a couple of seasons ago, and my view is that he simply hasn't improved as everybody thought he would. I also think Long Run's best days are behind him, and he is now in danger of being beaten by improving horses time and time again. He doesn't jump well enough on a consistent basis, despite what Yogi Bear has been doing with him, which allows other horses to pick up numerous lengths on him throughout a race. Al Ferof will go very close in the KG in my opinion, I too was impressed with Captain Chris this weekend, as I was with Silviniaco Conti, who will probably skip the KG unfortunately. If Cue Card gets the trip, he would also have a great chance, and also anything that doesn't jump well will be beaten by Sizing Europe if they decide to send him over
Yes Long Run is a former King George winner but he really isnt the same horse these days and I can't see his form improving. In my opinion he ran his race yesterday with no excuses and that is now his level - just short of the best. Don't get me wrong if he put in a super round of jumping I could see him winning a big one but that is a huge 'if'. Two seasons ago his class saw him over the line but that extra bit of class has been lost. He just never seems to be in any kind of rhythm and every jump looks a struggle. I'm sure his life would be made easier if he had a Ruby on board but we all know SWC will not be jocked off. Two years ago he had that extra something to make up for jumping and jockey error but today he's a different horse. I don't think calling him a 'grinder' is all that harsh. All his races last season and yesterday he doesnt seem to be seeing out his races. He's just staying on, very one paced, grinding it out. Shame for him really that there isnt a 4 miler for him. I'd back him in a grade one 4 miler. If he was mine actually I like to see him jump off in front, make all and grind them into submission. There's that word again. Problem is though for that to work for him he'd need to get into a fluent rhythm and have a jockey with a decent clock in his head. Couple of problems there. As for the Irish challenge Oddog - like I said IF Sir Des Champs was to come over I think he'd be a huge danger. Doesnt look likely though. Sizing Europe is an interesting one but for me he's a 2 miler. And he's getting on in life. 6/1 on Al Ferof is still pretty good value for me. If all stays well I think he could go off favourite on the day. 2/1, 9/4. The Christmas punters will back him. He's grey, he's trained by Paul Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh. The money will come for sure.
Lump on al ferof for the king George you heard it here first he's the one to light up kempton this year
Stick I was of the same opinion re the Cheltenham Gold Cup last season - he had been beaten by a rejuvenated Kauto Star at both Haydock and Kempton BUT he was catching Kauto up the Kempton straight and surely the extra 2 furlongs of the CGC would play right into his hands. I actually had him down as pretty bombproof at Cheltenham but he cost me dearly (again). He has quite simply disappointed too many times and I just don't think he is capable of putting in a Grade 1 winning performance any longer. For whatever reason he has regressed in the last 18 months, the evidence is pretty damning and I won't back him again (certainly not while that muppet is riding him - he would be a stone better with Geraghty up top)
Keeps coming back to the jock eh oddy. Geraghty would have won on him on Saturday though I do feel Hendo will have left something to work on in the coming weeks!
I just think long run reputation suffers because people believe he is something that he is not. He has a over inflated rating in my opinion, yes he is a very good horse but people seem to exaggerate his ability. The gold cup he won was just ridiculous kauto and denman were racing from too far out and basically set the race up for him, it basically just fell in his lap. Nothing he has done since makes me think he is worth a rating of 180 odd, he is a 170 horse at his very best imho. As for the king George he will be there or there abouts, its going to be a fascinating race. Im looking forward to seeing al ferof over 3 miles.
I really do wonder what old boy SWC has to do to convince some people?!? I’ve never had a problem with the forum’s favourite Corinthian and have never saw him on the back of a stead as a negative. Don’t forget that last year, within the space of 3 months, he won the King George VI, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and was 2nd in the old Grand National – if that’s the definition of a bad jock then I’m sure there would be many a pilot who would love to be deemed poor by the ‘forum faithful’. SWC is in the unfortunate position of having all the blame heaped on him when Long Run loses and receiving none of the praise when Long Run wins! Long Run has never finished one place below that of which he should have done when SWC has ridden him, people. Re this terms King George VI, at this precise moment in time, I wouldn’t want to look beyond Long Run. Let’s not forget that his run at the weekend was little more than his ‘prep’ (and a highly satisfactory one at that) for the big ‘un on St Stephen’s Day. In the next 4 weeks the old boy will receive the benefit of Mr Henderson’s ‘magic hands’ and expert tuition so you can guarantee he will come on a tonne for his debut run of the term. He is right on track to regain his ‘King George crown’ and remains the one to beat at Kempton Park where his record in Grade 1 Chases reads -112 (and when he finished 2nd he was 17 lengths in front of the 3rd).
I think anyone who witnessed his performance at Fakenham earlier this year when he made an almighty cock up and then proceeded to lie to ATR and the Stewards would have been disappointed by his behaviour. It was a shocking piece of riding and one that he wasn't man enough to face up to until some time after. Other riders have made errors at the track,Young Brendan Powell recently springs to mind,but have had the decency to admit to their error and apologise. Sam behaved like a complete WC. For whats its worth I don't believe amateurs should be permitted to ride against professionals and should be confined to competing against pilots of a similar ilke.Hard enough for pro's to make a living without having these inferior part timers taking up riding opportunites.Very few other top level sports permit it. Thats not to say there are not some very fine amateur horsepeople about. Just my opinion.
Just about got over Monday's news! Oh well, that's racing. Can I change the thread title? 'Sir Des Champs' King George if he runs, Cue Card if he doesn't'
