Think Long Run and Oscar Whisky are both backable because I really believe both will win. Saphir River can improve on 4th to Attaglance at Aintree now he's moved to Lucinda Russell Hollow Tree can turn over Balder Success on this ground.
Interesting article in this week's post (can't remember who by) in which it was pointed out that in the era Best Mate, Denman and Kauto Star it has been the norm for the top staying chasers to win or be competitive in multiple Gold Cups. Historically though, winning a Gold cup has always been the very pinnacle of a horses' career, a high from which they inevitably decline (see Kicking King and War of Attrition). The principle of "regression to the mean" indicates the return of the established historic trend may be imminent. What that means for today is that Long Run is likely to be some way past his best, in which case he is no value even at 7/4. Not when the Champion trainer (a cracking bet to retain his title at 2/1 btw) enters an improving animal in the easily spelt Silviniaco Conti. There seems to be a common conception that the Charlie Hall wasn't much of a race, but I think the winner crushed a field of experienced chasers, every one of whom had form at the top level. Meanwhile, over at Ascot, I'll be backing Captain Chris. Top Class makes a great case for him at the top of this thread, and I don't have much to add to that. 4/1 is a cracking price. Finally, Oscar Whisky 10/11 with Coral's? Wtf? He'll win.
Backed a few today: Haydock 2.30 Sivola De Sivola 10/1 (AP) Haydock 3.05 Long Run 7/4 (too big imo) Ascot 3.20 Champion Court 7/2 Best Of Luck All
Morning everyone, 2 really taking my eye today for different reasons: In the 3.20 at Ascot William's Wishes finally returns to the track (at least I hope he does - still a few hours to the off!!). I really liked this lad as a novice chaser and considered him a genuine Arkle contender in 2011 after he racked up a hat-trick of novice chase victories in bloodless fashion. He hasn't run for 664 days but coming here off a mark of 135 I think he could run a massive race. Over at Haydock, Knight Pass has his first run for the Pipe yard in the Grade 3 Fixed Brush hurdle at 2.30. I had him in my 10 to follow last season and the highlight was undoubtably his victory at Kempton on boxing day. That was off 125 but he did it fairly cosily, suggesting there is more to come. His season fell apart after that when upped significantly in class but I am hoping he comes here fit and well (Pipe's usually do) and 132 is not over onerous. Best of luck everyone
Morning all... What a day we may have ahead of us, and what a way to start the thread than The King himself winning here at Haydock last year... Many thanks Toppy, sets me and the rest of the forum off to a great start to the day...
Scoop 6 and Lucky 63 today: 1:40 Ascot - Bunglasha Lady 4/1 2:00 Haydock - Dashing George 5/1 2:30 Haydock - Sivola de Sivola 9/2 3:05 Haydock - Weird Al 5/1 3:20 Ascot - Toubab 7/2 3:40 Haydock - Wide Receiver 13/2
2.30 American Spin - One of a few who should relish the conditions and I thought his run at Cheltenham was Promising with a capital P. He won a good handicap at the course last season on ground that was slightly better than todays (if Richard Johnson is to be believed) and he has also won over an extended trip at Fontwell on soft ground, making him look like a horse who can relish the ground, the course and the trip for this race, and as such I think he shouldn't be overlooked. Then you add in that he is only 4lbs higher than when he won at the track last season, and the relatively strong nature of that races form, and his impressive effort on reappearance (on ground faster than ideal) he should be one to be with. Then you add the quote from Dace - “I still think there's a little left in the tank over hurdles and there will be improvement on proper soft ground. I was over the moon with his comeback run. He was still there jumping the second-last until tiring and that has put him spot-on.” That to me says 'he wasn't fully fit but is now and has improved and will do more for the ground' and the 14/1 looks generous. Add in he is against Pricewise and the Pipe yards runners and he may still go off at a bigger price at 2.30. EW @ 14/1 Toubab is the other one I like, I snaffled a small amount of the 9/2 last night and I am a bit surprised that he is back to 4/1 now, he looks like a really nicely handicapped horse and he could make a mockery of this mark if he runs to some of the form of last season. If he has improved he could be massively well in. He might get bogged down in the ground, but I take Nicholls horses to run ok on the ground, otherwise he would withdraw them (ala Henderson at HQ) Finally a shilling or two EW on Sticks longshot at Wolverhampton
Morning chaps What a great Morning Line today, with it's live coverage of Kauto Star walking around the paddock and examining his own statue up at Haydock. The look he was giving it, spoke a thousand words! The news that he may have a go at dressage is interesting - inasmuch as at least he won't be getting bored, but hopefully will get an activity that will give his intelligence a work out without the inherant perils of racing. I pondered over Williams Wishes myself Oddy, then decided that almost two years off the track warrants a watching brief - but good luck if your dough is down Happy with League comp choices, but additionally backed Quincey Des Pictons (16-1 ew) in the assumption he will swerve Finians Run et al at Ascot. The ground he will love, the distance is a punt. Good luck peeps
Cracking racing today, I'm really looking forward to seeing Captain Chris run, i've had a speculative shilling on him winning the gold cup, so realistically he must win today to give that any hope. Best of luck to all today.
Lingfield 1.20 Bloodsweatandtears 6-1 I really fancy this horse to go in today if getting a good break. He drops back in trip and so hopefully there will be a good pace which will see him staying on at the end. Roto's Chookie Hamilton looking very interesting for tonight as now down to 4-1 from a yard who are becoming reliable for following when the money is down.
Just my fancies for today... Haydock... 12.55 - Double Ross, 11/2 2.00 - Universal Soldier, 3/1 2.30 - Knights Pass, 15/2 3.05 - Long Run, 13/8 3.40 - Wide Receiver Ascot... 12.35 - Shernando, 5/1 1.10 - Tigre Daron, 9/4 1.40 - Lady Kathleen, 15/2 2.10 - Finians Rainbow, 11/10 2.45 - Oscar Whisky, 8/11 3.20 - Pepite Rose, 3/1 Not bet on them all but i do fancy them... Singles and a few doubles...
Close to being an epic effort, just didn't get to the winner in time. He is one that surely will go and win a big race at some point, feel slightly frustrated as he looked like the best horse in the race, only for needing to go wide on the bends and the front two getting away in the straight.
