Well, a year on since that unbelievable Betfair Chase where Kauto Star announced he was back for one final hurrah, and I have honoured it in my profile signature! The often forgotten thing last year at this meeting is that there was a 20/1 KAUTO STAR and MASTER MINDED double on the day in the Betfair and Amlin chases- here's a tilt at the double this year. SILVINIANO CONTI 9/4 Long Run is a high class animal but if he doesn't jump well on Saturday he does not win. He has to improve that this year. I also wonder about his form too. Kauto and Denman were hardly at their brilliant best in 2010/2011 and Kautos turnaround with him in 2011/2012 makes you wonder. Long Run is certainly around the 170 mark in ability but I think Silviniano Conti has been one of the most gradually progressive chasers in training and it is interesting that Paul Nicholls feels he is ready for the crack at a Betfair chase. He is avoiding the King George because he feels he is a strong out and out stayer and might have lacked the speed for a King George- interesting then that the Betfair wil be a big stamina test. Silvinaiano has been a brilliant jumper, even when he was beaten by Cue Card on their chase debuts you knew Silviniano would go up in trip and be much more rhythmical and he is tailor-made for this sort of race. Giant Bolster just not for me in these conditions. CAPTAIN CHRIS 3/1 He jumps right handed for fun and had spooked himself after an unfortunate unseat on reappearance last season, so was mever really at his best. He ran an absolutely remarkable staying on 4th in the Ryanair having jumped right the whole way, and it was a credit he got so close to some clearly smart animals. I think a break will have really helped him and this sort of trip (2m3f) on a stiff Ascot track looks absolutely ideal for an Arkle winner who we knew would need a bit more than 2m as he went into open company. [video=youtube;mIy8iw6stCM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIy8iw6stCM[/video]
Three at Haydock Rowan Tiger 14/1 each way Dashing George 7/1 each way Bellflower Boy no price yet Your champion has spoken.
It's a lovely card at Ascot tomorrow, particularly looking forward to seeing: Chiberta King continuing his education in the opener Barry Geraghty riding for Emma Lavelle in the 1.40 A small but select field for the Amlin Ditto for the Ascot hurdle but I think Oscar Whiskey will take all the beating Williams Wishes in the 3.20
12.55 Haydock. Good Flat horse Ile De Re looks well weighted, but his hurdles form has never matched up. Hobbs' Lamb Or Cod had good form in Ireland; was well backed to make a winning reappearance and duly obliged. He's been raised 6lbs but his rider takes off five of those- and he steps down in grade here. I backed Double Ross when he won decisively last week and he's sure to run well. The extra weight-bringing him up to 11st 10lbs may just anchor him, though. Recommended..Big EW Bet on Lamb Or Cod at 11/2 (various)
Laying the absolute **** out of Long Run. Don't think he's the same horse as he was back in 2011 and there are so many negatives against him. The are doubts about the ground, lost on his seasonal reappearance the last twice, suspect jumper, the awful Sam Waley-Cohen on board. Furthermore, Nicky Henderson said that a hard race against Kauto in the same race last year pretty much ruined his season and given the fact the ground is going to be very testing I can't see Long Run going all out to win this. Up against a race fit Silviano Conti, I think he looks one of the worst prices of the season and I'm very confident he's going to get beat. Mug punters will lump on him tomorrow so he'll probably start 5/4 or something ridiculous
I don't see any value in laying Long Run at odds against. He's only against one horse. Good luck as I'm not involved in that race but seems a poor value call to me. Your champion has spoken.
I am convinced he wins. And that the horses he is running against are the equivalent to conference level. Silviniaco Conti he is that crappy a challenger 2 of the great posters on this forum can't even spell his name correctly . I wish those backing against him/laying him the best of luck but he will not be getting beat off anything in this field. Suddenly he is criticised for falling short against one of the greatest NH horses of all time last season. Yeah he was a bit older but so what nothing wrong with his form at all. He handed the Giant Bolster a severe beating conceding 4lbs at Newbury and I am always willing to forgive an effort in the GC (rubbish ride btw). The ground thing = anyone saying he will not go on the ground 5 wins on VERY SOFT in France
He was good value on known performances. I got that race wrong as Shrapnel hugely outperformed his mark. Funnily enough you don't win every time in horse racing. No one tipped up Shrapnel though as I recall but it is very easy after the race to say you tipped the winner when there is no proof to back that up.
I didnt tip the winner, just like i didnt tip Poungach, Clondaw Kempfer and Gevrey Chambertin today, I made it abundantly clear how highly I rated Rory OMoore, it was obvious to me and the other shrewdies that Shrapnel was a much improved horse after that performance, thats why he was backed from 7/2 into 2/1 he will make a nice chaser btw that Shrapnel
Well done Master. Obviously, rating one horse isn't the same as tipping up another horse but we get the idea. I also backed Poungach today aswell but wouldn't dream of mentioning it as I don't like to after time.
