Well the NH season is full in for and damn does it feel good! 13.20 Cheltenham- Sire Collognes -15/8 (NAP) Beat most of these competitors over C&D last month winning by 2 lengths. Altho he has to concede weight all round, especially to the very talented Sea Of Thunder (who I bet on lto and has AP on board) I still believe this will make not much of a difference to the placings. Also in an interview with Ruby Walsh earlier today on Talksport- He was very confident of him winning tomorrow on this horse. This confirmed my mind and my money is on him. 13.55 Cheltenaham- Teaforthree- 9/1 Wil be having a small e/w on him tomorrow- backed him at the festival last year when winning over 4m NH chase, is a very talented horse and will have the festival on in mind again. Altho he is carrying 11st11 Patrick Corbett (who i have never heard off &does put me off a tad) takes of 10lbs! He too has beaten the majority of this field last season and imo is Rebecca Curtis's No1 stable horse. Altho he will have some tough oppostion 9/1 is some pretty good e/w value for a horse who knows this course very well, will stay the distance and more importantly stay up the cheltenham hill. 14.35 Chelteham- Grand Crus- 5/2 & Poquelin 25/1 (EW) Grand Crus- need I say more- Altho My heart says Hunt ball to win my head says Grand Crus To win- but will be having a small e/w on Poquelin last 5 wins have come at this track- he loves the track and the ground- Is off a very good mark and with Harry Derham taking off 7LBS he should definately be able to run in to the placings! 11.55 Punchestown- Mount Benbulen Will win!
Evening chaps. With Cheltenham day two around the corner I'm sure a few are eager to talk about their selections. I, on the other hand, would like to focus on the last race at Wetherby where the Steve Gollings trained Laterly looks to have been found a reasonable opportunity to get into the winners enclosure at a decent each way price. The seasonal pipe opener at Wetherby LTO will have blown away the cobwebs and sharpened this chap up. I don't expect him to wilt away in the final furlong tomorrow as he did last time and with a prominent ride I think he'll go close. Cheltenham bets Far West Sire Collonges Roger Beantown each way All Ruby/Nicholls. Sire Collonges has been the most impressive novice chaser for me this season.
A great first days racing back at the home of NH racing, my bets tomorrow are: 12.45 Far West 7/4 1.20 Our Father 4/1 1.55 Ashkazar 12/1 e/w 2.25 Grands Crus 6/1 & Walkon 12/1 e/w Best Of Luck All
Very, very, very, V-E-R-Y interested in Mikael d'Haguenet tomorrow .................... I have a feeling RV will be joining me here Mullins has had the patience of a saint with this fella and I just think that patience could be rewarded tomorrow In the Grade 3 chase at Cheltenham Viking Blond is weighted to go very close. Goes superbly well fresh, track and trip will suit .................. expecting a massive run. AP McCoy on Nadiya de la Vega to lift the PPGC
Agree about Mikael. Experienced chaser against a load of novices. He's operated at the top level without success but I'd take him to beat Mount Benbulben every time at the moment.
Odddy spot on very interested 11.55 as well - gives me time to strike a decent bet on him and watch him hack up before I leave for the toon match. Give me the 9/4 forecast price and I am all in
ok folks I bow down to Cheltenham and Punchestown, even little Weatherby but please dont forget my desperation for some info. I'm off to Uttoxeter with a few lads who know nowt about racing and they think that my little hobby makes me a fountain of knowledge. I have picked out Lean Burn in the 2.40 as a winner earlier this week and no penalty but no great value, however a win is a win (hopefully). Another I fancy is a horse that has not seen a racecourse for 2 years but a certain Miss Lavelle has a good record of getting horses back on track, so at 6/1 Global Warming 12:55 is another possibility. Now I just need a ROTO or Stick inspired choice to throw in the mix. Come on lads come up with a couple with fighting chances.
Fantastic day of racing ahead tomorrow. Too many selections to mention, so i'll try and provide some big priced chances. 1.55 Cheltenham - KING FONTAINE @ 37/1 A sketchy jumper but when he gets it right he has the ability to land a race like this. Running off 127 tomorrow, that's the same mark he was on when running out the easy winner of the Paul Nicholls chase at Haydock. Went up to a mark of 142 and took a while to get back on a competitive mark. Although he did run with credit off 140, when 5th at the festival. Was then 3rd in the Scottish national this year off 132 after a couple off falls at Haydock. I think he's far too big a price if putting in a clean round. 3.40 Cheltenham - BRICK RED @ 10/1 Has run well twice this season off a higher mark, where he probably needed the run at Cheltenham and found the trip a stretch too far at Ascot last time out. The trainer's form is red hot & he should be spot on for this tomorrow. 3.55 Lingfield - AXIOM @10/1 Was second in March over C&D off a mark of 100, now down to 89. Bound to be in the shake up! Good luck to anyone having a punt
These have already been mentioned on here but Mikael D'Haguenet and an each way bet on Viking Blond are going to be two of my main bets for tomorrow! Also interested on Vasco Du Ronceray in the first. Probably didnt beat much first time out but could not have been any more impressive. Should be a cracking race with Far West
Pricewise Harry the Viking 1.55 Chelt Hezmah 2.50 Lingfield Lovcen & Abnaki 3.05 Chelt (Micheal Flips Ante Post Paddy Power)
The Paddy Power Gold Cup tomorrow looks an extremely hard race to solve and it doesn't even look worth solving. Firstly you have the favourite Grand Crus who David Pipe has been bigging up constantly who makes his handicap chasing debut off a mark of 157. Although he was impressive in beating the excellent Silviano Conti and Bobs Worth on only his 3rd start over fences before disappointing behind the latter rival in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. Although I do believe he is on a fair mark, I just don't see him producing a performance of 165+ that I feel he would need to do to win this. Hunt Ball, who I would oh so dearly love to win, races off the same mark as Grand Crus and again I think he will struggle in a race this competitive. I would have probably had a bet on Walkon before Hugh Taylor tipped him up and ruined all the value but that could, quite easily, be a blessing in disguise. Throw in the very talented former Supreme Novice and subsequent Grade 1 winning chaser Al Ferof, Barry Geraghty getting down to his lowest weight in the past 12 months of 10-1 on Triolo D'Alene and last years 2nd and 3rd at Quantitativeeasing and Divers both being available at 20/1 or bigger and it paints a picture of how competitive a renewal this years Paddy Power Gold Cup is. In recent years, horses rated less than 150 have been winning this so that is another massive negative for both Grand Crus and Hunt Ball. Poquelin does help their case though. Will be a great race to watch but I think you'd be mad having a bet in it. I will be laying Grand Crus if he dips under 2/1
Agree with the above, but will be having a bet, if only for interest, although I feel there could be a lot of horses in with a shout of winning the PPGC. As a massive Ruby fan, and with him at his best at the moment (there is not a jockey to touch him IMO), I'm going with Al Ferof E/W, along with Nadiya De La Vega also E/W. Other bets tomorrow; Chelts 1.55 - Harry The Viking (6/1 Sky) 2.35 - Al Ferof (8/1 WH E/W) & Nadiya De La Vega (16/1 WH E/W) 3.05 - Bouggler (One for Stick!!!! 25/1 SJ E/W) 3.40 - Swampfire (12/1 SJ E/W) Good Luck to all who have a go
Already backed Walkon at 10s and having studied the race again I will be backing AERIAL at 33/1 E.W and 50/1 BETDAQ (WIN) as a saver. Still a young horse open to further improvement. He has a decent profile having never finished outside of the top 4 since joining Paul Nicholls (some decent races as well). He definitely needs to step up on what he has done so far but there is every chance of him doing just that this season in my opinion and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was to run a huge race tomorrow
RV- Totally with you mate. WALKON is stupidly handicapped and ideally placed for a big run with his record fresh. AERIAL has jumped out at me for similar reasons but of all the top weighted classy animals, AL FEROF may be the one most likely to produce a 160lb performance and if that is the case, he will be asking major questions of this lineup. He has cried for 2 and a half miles upwards ever since his chase introduction last season and his keeping on 3rd to SOMERSBY (Whos Ascot form is outstanding when marginal runner up to MASTER MINDED and when beating FINIANS RAINBOW) and behind Finians himself makes him an excellent bet. He was ready to serve it up to Cue Card when really standing off a fence in the Arkle and that cost him 2nd having looked to have a big chance against CUE CARD to finish 2nd to Sprintre Sacre. AL FEROFand WALKON are the value greys this weekend, and this is coming from a Grands Crus fan
Having been convinced this race was a "watch only" after looking more closely and making my competition selections, I took 28-1 ew about Poquelin. Despite him being passed over by Ruby, he is a class horse in his own right, and young Harry's allowance puts him bang in contention in my opinion. He is a Cheltenham specialist if ever I saw one, and I think the odds are based on him being the stables second choice rather than the form book. I admit here and now though that I'd be delighted if Hunt Ball could win
aha, i have swampfire (3:40), first time i've seen it mentioned on the thread. and i scribbled harry the viking (1:55) plus bradley. the pp gold cup i couldn't call so wrote down hunt ball/grands crus. i've put that my first choice is the disengager, but no one's mentioned it. it must be out of the picture i'm an ew better though if i do bet. the smidgen i post here mind is likely not to be the horses i have that actually do something 4 jump meetings tomorrow though so i'm looking forward to settling in and watching however many hours on replay later in the day. good luck all tomorrow
i hope you managed to get some picks for uttoxeter niks. i had a look at my book and i have lean burn as well. few other picks stuck out as obvious in the races you didn't mention, and if i get winners there i don't know which ones they'll be. far be it for me to throw amateur shots in so i bid you good luck tomorrow!
3.40 Cheltenham Zafaraban 25/1 Tony Carroll's 5 year old grey gelding Zafaraban looks a fascinating contender in the finale at Cheltenham on his handicap and stable debut off a mark of 110 on the back of a 254 day break and I think this unexposed a progressive looking son of Dalakhani could go well here at a nice price for a stable that took this race back in 2009 with another handicap debutant in the shape of Zafranagal, a half brother to this new recruit. Zafaraban, unlike his half brother who began his career on the flat in france before joining Carroll, has had a very different career to date starting his life in Ireland with two runs for Tony Mullins before joining his cousin Seamus for one solitary run which was his last start back in March. His two starts for Tony Mullins came in October and November at Naas and Limerick in maiden hurdles in the mud won by the very talented pair of Lyreen Legend and Jenari. On both occasions, he definitely showed some promise and he was never asked to be put into either race and was allowed to come home in his own time. It looked very much like they were educational spins and that handicapping would be his game in due course. At some point between November 2011 to March of this year, he joined Seamus Mullins where I thought he made an extremely impressive stable debut at Wincanton back in March. On the back of a 4 month absence and after receiving some late support in the market, (66s into 25s) he was held up towards the back under his pretty inexperienced rider Charlie Brown. After the 2nd flight, 4 horses forged about 5 or 6 lengths clear of the remainder (contained the first 3 in the betting and the first two home) and they kept that advantage throughout the contest. Prior to entering the home straight, Zafaraban made some very nice progress from out of the pack (only horse to come from off the pace) to 3rd between the final two flights of hurdles and under a minimal amount of hands and heels riding he closed very nicely on the front two to finish beaten 9L back in 3rd and 24L clear of the 4th. That race is very hard to quantify in terms of form and for the most part it looked pretty dire. The comfortable winner Old Tricks has only had two starts since and was well beaten in both races but they were a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle and Grade 2 Novice Chase so the Tizzards must think a bit about him. The 2nd Black Pond, a former 74 rated flat horse and who received 8lb from Zafaraban, has only had one start since when sent off a 5/1 shot on his handicap debut in a Class 2 Juvenile Hurdle a month later where he was tailed off but he was still going pretty well before clouting 3 out and being ultimately eased. The form of those in behind is dire but this race was faster than the Division I Maiden won by the now 134 rated, and has to be said an unextended and easy winner, Monte Cavallo. He was then sold out of Seamus Mullins's yard to Paul Downing and into Tony Carroll's yard where he'll be making his handicap debut off a mark of 110 on the back of a 254 day absence. Its very hard to evaluate how harsh/kind this mark is for Zafaraban as the button has never been pushed on him (nor whip raised) in his short career but he has shown enough in his to date (especially in his last race) to lead me to believe that he could be a bit better than his current mark. Given that he could be anything, I've looked at his siblings to try and gauge what sort of form he could expect to run up to. In addition to his half brother Zafranagar who won this same race on handicap debut (off a mark of 105 with a peak rating of 119), his half brother Smart Catch has won a Novice Hurdle and then finished 2nd behind a now 126 rated animal conceding him 6lb and his only other sibling (that I can find) is the once raced flat half brother Zafarqand who was beaten a nose on his debut by the talented 95 flat rated Olympiad for John Oxx. His 3 half brothers have all shown some pretty decent form to suggest that a mark of 110 could be manageable for him. I also find it very interesting that Tony Carroll trains both Zafranagar and Smart Catch so its clearly a family he knows very well and likes working with which adds to the huge intrigue about this runner. With Tony Carroll being such a shrewd operator, there is no way in hell he doesn't know he won this back in 2009 with this fella's half brother (Paul Downing owns him too) and I think its definitely very telling that his first start for the yard comes in this race. Completely unexposed and an absolute enigma, Zafaraban is an extremely fascinating contender in this Class 3 Novices Handicap and under Lee Edwards I'm hoping that history repeats itself as this grey follows in the footsteps of his half brother by landing this contest at a lovely price.
