Evening All I've taken the liberty of doing the daily thread as I'm off to Towcester tomorrow and was hoping to get a few opinion this evening on the meeting. 12.50 Highland Lodge Not a fancy price but a solid choice I think in what is probably the best race of the day. Some very decent form in the book last season tasting defeat only at Warwick behind Cotton Mill who of course was famously upsides Simonsig at Cheltenham when refusing/unseating. Maringa Bay is still a novice after a full season chasing and has a chance, he had a victory over Tea for Three over hurdles but I expect Emma Lavelle's horse to win the day. Any odds against would be value. 1.20 Spring in her Step Probably wrong to describe a 14 runner novice as a match but I can only see Hendersons and Noel Fehilys, Umadachar winning this, for something else to win I think they'd have to show significant improvement. Spring in her Step slammed a poor bumper field at Sedgefield on the bridle and will find this tougher, Umadachar ran against some of the bumper horses last year with credit and is sure to win hurdle races, I'll be taking Hendersons horse to win this as his potential could be greater. 1.50 Tigresse Bleue Could be value here - shaped with promise at Ludlow and clearly had talent on the level in France, an each way play if the prices permit 3.50 If its a Fiddle 7 unraced bumper horses wouldn't usually inspire a great deal of confidence but the fact McCoy is booked for a Richard Philips horse tells me this one is ready. Brendan Powells horse, Reach the Beach could be the danger Good luck to all those who play !
Evening Grizzly have a good day at Towcester just the one for me tomorrow LAYALI DUBAI (7.20 Wolverhampton). Won her last two starts impressively and I will be surprised if a 7lb penalty is enough to prevent the hat-trick tomorrow night. Don't see the step up to 1m4f being a problem either. 11/4 is a decent price imo.
1.20 Umadachar - form of Sandown Mares Bumper is always one to follow and the form already has been franked by Call Me A Star and Eleven Fifty Nine, and this is another horse I expect to frank the form. Her bumper form is better than the Henderson horse and I think she can go to the top of the mares novice hurdle sphere.
It's difficult without the prices but I would imagine that Highland Lodge will comfortably be odds on. Rather like Hinterland the other day I think this one looks the best on paper but I wouldn't want to be getting involved on a horses when they are first time out for the season and first time over fences. I'm very hopeful of a juicy price about Kasabadali who will love the trip and the trainer has been banging them in on their first runs of the season recently so he should be fit and ready to race. Looks a strong contest with a number in with a chance if Highland Logde doesn't fulfil 'expectations'
As well, re the Springinherstep and Umadachar race, watch out also for As Am I if the ground firms up a bit. Ran 3/4L behind Umadachar in the Aintree bumper but looks like one for good ground or better. Interesting, imo, that AP McCoy is allowed to ride the Hendo horse depsite JP having a runner which was sent off no less than fav on debut a couple of weeks back.
Cheers RV - my debut at the track and really looking forward to is (especially as I'm meant to be on a conference so getting paid to go !) I should add that with so many making their season or racecourse debut, 10 mins in the parade ring is crucial and I'm not too stubborn to change if I don't like the way mine is turned out - the Greatrex yard hasn't really got going yet sending out just one winner this season which tempers enthusiasm for Umadachar. Highland Lodge is evens on the fair, albeit for peanuts, would love some 11/10 on course....
Looked long and hard Grizzly, the only thing that remotely interests me is Tell Me Why in the 2.20 - and that only because I am keeping an eye on Kris Kin progeny in the NH game - think he might become a useful sire. Looking at Tell Me Why's form over hurdles I'm actually struggling to understand why he is joint favourite for this but obviously if he looks in good nick in the paddock and the money is down he could take close order. Not one I would be going mad on though, perhaps even a Dutch-Schulz type bet with Destroyer Deployed, although I don't want to sound like you know who Have a great day out
Celtic had 16.4% possession tonight and won 2-1...lowest poss stat recored by a team winning a CL game!...wtf!
Morning, team. Hope everyone well. Good, good. Stunning card at Towcester in my opinion today. Is it there best ever me wonders?!? Anyway, I think there are 3 highly interesting runners out today. They may not be the biggest odds ever posted in chalk on a bookie chappies board but I think all will win and could long-term prove highly profitable to boot: Springinherstep (1.20 Towcester) – what a lovely name for a mare by the way. And also what an appropriate name for a mare because any mare under the care of Mr Henderson, the forum’s favourite trainer, is indeed sure to have a ‘spring in her step’. She was the most facile winner of a bumper at Southwell, back in July, when she both oozed class and looked ultra impressive. Sure to have benefited from extensive schooling and Mr Henderson’s magic hands and soothing words since then I expect to oblige on her timber bow before taking very high rank amongst this terms mares in novice hurdles. Hanseatic (3.40 Lingfield Park) – I must confess that this well bred unraced son of Galileo absolutely flew off the page so much that he poked me in the old eye! He makes a very belated racecourse debut today and the fact is that stables like old boy Gosden’s do not retain unraced horses until almost their 4th birthday unless they believe them extremely capable and more than able to make up for lost time. In fact you can almost picture old boy Gosden, when the sales van came round, saying with a knowledgeable glint in his eye, ‘No, not that one’, when the attention was turned to Hanseatic. His opponents look poor today and I really think that Hanseatic could be in a different league to his opponents in this maiden. Ifits A Fiddle (3.50 Towcester) – another unraced one, who it must be said has not got a lovely name for a filly, but I include her as she hails from one of my favourite jumping families and one that Mr Henderson has had so much success with – think Classic Fiddle, Master Fiddle and the ‘jewel in the crown’ Fiddling The Facts (who would have won the old Grand National by half a mile had Mick Fitzgerald not fallen off her). The major negative, of course, is that Ifits A Fiddle isn’t handled my Mr Henderson but her breeding alone should be enough to see her ease past some rather uninspiring opposition. Good luck, all.
NAP for me away from the horses 5pm Anzhi Makhachkala against a weekend Liverpool side, 8/11 won't get you rich but it will be a good return
just the one bet for me today and that is aegaeus in the 2.10 at lingfield 5/1 e/w. This horse is extremely well bread being a son of the great ouija board however has disappointed so far, mainly due to the his refusal to settle in his races. However he certainly looks capable of being much better than his current mark and may benefit from the strong handling of graham lee. I dont think you can go wrong here with an e/w bet to nothing.
1.40 Lingfield Cativo Cavallino 16/1 Not the most obvious horse on paper and not one I'd generally go for but something keeps drawing me back to John Long's 9 year old who I think could definitely outrun his odds. Now entering his veteran stage, this 7 times course winner (twice C+D) is a real credit to his trainer and although not at his best of late I think he's fallen to a very attractive mark of 56 and after his reappearance run from a 102 day break I think he could be spot for this. Although not at his best this year, Cativo Cavallino started 2012 rated 12lb higher and he did put in a good effort when a half length beaten 2nd off an 8lb higher mark in a weak race in February and another ok effort off the same mark of 64 in March. Resultantly, this gelding has plummeted in the ratings to his lowest mark since 2007 of 56. There is another interesting thing to note with regards to Cativo Cavallino which is (barring his last run after a 102 day break) today's jockey Natalia Gemelova was not on board for his other 8 starts this year. Although I'm not the biggest fan of hers, its unquestionable that Gemelova gets on exceedingly well with this 9 year old as she has been on board for all 10 of his career victories so its definitely a positive that she takes the ride today, especially as John Long is a massive advocate of hers. In addition to his lowly mark, I thought Cativo Cavallino ran a decent enough race when finishing a 5L beaten 9th last month and it certainly looked as if he would improve for the run. Moreover, if not including his recent return from a short break, this will be his first time in a Class 6 handicap since landing his sole turf start (last win) last October and first time in this grade on the AW since 2010. I've had a look through this race and I really don't see too much pace and from his draw in stall 4 I hope Gemelova breaks him out and grabs (hopefully) and easy and uncontested lead whereby she can set the fractions she wants to up front. Nevertheless, she shouldn't have too much issue getting him prominent as most of the other 11 runners like to sit midfield or off the pace. Clearly on a good mark, if the recent break and return to action last month have freshened him up, I'm hopeful of a big run from Cativo Cavallino and although I can't say I'm bubbling with confidence I think the only C+D winner in the field is worth a dabble at the price.
One that will go in my notebook from last night is Rollin 'n Tumblin - down to a low mark and got no sort of run last night, not sure if that was intentional, think he will pop up at a price shortly
Hi fellow Racing fans. I have been observing this forum for a while and have decided to take the plunge and join in. I'll chance my arm and make 2 selections today although I do know they have already been backed this morning. 1.20 Towcester Springinherstep 2.00 Musselburgh Doyly Carte
