US election predictions

No, he isn't. Romney might win the popular vote, but the numbers preclude any real chance of him taking the electoral college and getting the Presidency. Forget the polls, the market doesn't lie.

 

The expert opinion seems to be that whoever wins Ohio will be the president. They're due to announce the result there around 01:00 UK time, so my game plan is to wait up till then. The one potential spanner in the works is if it's a close call and they have to do a recount.

 

The networks won't call Ohio until late into the night, so just wait until 100% of precincts are in

They'll talk a lot about provisional ballots still to be counted but those rarely change the outcome

 

Obama's got it sewn up. Anyone betting on Romney is a mug.

All explained here much better than I could: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Basically Romney has next to no chance of overturning Obama's lead in the number of swing states he needs to. The BBC are just playing up the tightness of the national polls to drum up more interest, in reality it should be pretty comfortable for Barack.

 

Nate Silver is a Democrat hack

The most important thing about the polls is that Obama could not get to 50% or higher in most of the battleground state polls

And that is terrible news for an incumbent

 

Still more than Romney though, and that's what counts.

 

I vote for the non white chap

 

Paddy Power paid out on Obama today I hope Romney wins just to stick up smug paddy's fat hole

 

Whatever he pays out he makes from free advertising, no hairs on that ****.

 

Hahaha ok mate, thanks for telling me what my opinion is(which looks like could be wrong) and also, thanks for the lesson on American politics, I didn't know that, maybe I it is just because I'm a daft Scotchman, ya ****ing arsehole. Also, thanks for the market info too, I know **** all about that either, in fact I know **** all about **** all.

<watchyourbackcunt>

 

Plus there can't have been a huge market for those bets anyway.

 

48 million matched on betfair on the election result.

 

From Britain? and how does that compare to say, x factor for example?

<ithoughtyouwereonmysidecunt?>

 

Kick **** out of him monaco hes a coon lover.

**** doesn't side with people monaco hes just a ****.

 

Phone calls have been made. <envelopesgivenontableKoybeasheystillfromusualsuspects>

 

What happened the top men in New yawk?

 

Admittedly the markets were only up by a few points, for example the FTSE was only up 19 points when I posted it, but generally speaking, it is a fairly good indicator. If it was up 100 points, then it would be a no brainer, but I suppose these days all the markets are factored in weeks in advance, hence you can't make money before the figures come out for "non-farm payroll" anymore, instead of moving 150tics it moves about 4 now.

 

" Start spreading the news "

Mon the coloured chap

 

New Hampshire for O'Bama

 

Is it a definite that the caramac has won? Surely, it is still a bit of a surprise, well not to PaddyPower evidently!