as well as the run in, i've pointed this out on another thread, i think we have at least one extra home game compared to aways in the second half of the season. of the next 4 we have 3 away, which means we would have played 2 more away games than home after Saints. This i think is an advantage
i totally understand that. its a useful tool and managers also use it. what i'm saying is that it is based on consistency. some teams, most teams in fact, will be consistent over the course of a season and finish exactly where you'd expect based on that. however, there will be some who have a very strong start or very strong finish who will deviate from that line. i would not be at all surprised for example, to see west brom falter later in the season and drop towards the bottom three. i recall norwich once sitting 5th at christmas and being relegated the same season! as i say, stats like this are incredibly rough.
Bloody hell! Just read my post from 7th November last year.Predicted 37-8 points as a safety level. QPR got 37 Villa 38.Even I didn't know I was that good.Wish I had put a hundred quid on it.
I think the Saint potential downfall could be their inability to go into the season with an established, quality goalkeeper. I think they've used three different keepers already in the first half a dozen or so games, hardly conducive to defensive stability if you ask me.
that is a bit odd. also they seem to change the team a lot elsewhere from the keepers. i don't think the goals conceeded is totally to blame on the defence -from what i have read, their central midfielders didn't offer much protection to the defence last night. Ring any bells with us last season?
As a statistician, the unexplained variance in predicting final positions is so large as to be akin to predicting when the earth will stop spinning. There is no explanatory power is any form of multiple regression analysis you would use to determine teams that go down; it's about looking at the relative strengths and weaknesses of clubs and making your bet.
i agree with this munky. not a fan of kelvin davis but you have to wonder whether they should just throw him back in and stick by him until january at least. always been shaky in my opinion though. i still think saints might get out of this hole they find themselves in. they are more than capable of scoring goals so they will be a threat to teams but my god are they bad at the back! i also don't think it helps that their manager, who has done a fabulous job, is under so much pressure from their owner. as i understand it, the owner is demanding champions league football within two years. reality check is needed. some of their fans were banging on pre-season about how the ground would be expanded to 50k etc etc etc... they can't fill 32k! just like qpr, they are a club who need to perfect the art of walking before they even attempt running with the big boys. thank god our club is being run in a responsible, thoughtful and well planned way
And long may our club continue to be 'run in a responsible, thoughtful and well planned way!!' I really hope we don't attract someone akin to TF - we're far better off as we are and the images of Delia and Michael celebrating after we beat Arsenal will live with me for a VERY long time. They are TRUE fans, which is more than can be said for the owners of some clubs.
look at villa last season, they dropped down the league last season after Xmas and were lucky to stay up in the end. it's likely this will happen again this season, could be WBA, could be Fulham, who knows. At least we've given ourselves a good chance now after our mini-run and dragged ourselves out of the drop zone
A while ago, there was a thread about irrational dislike of teams and the saints are top of my list, and it really is a dire uniteresting place to live. That aside, I am now hoping their arrogance regarding the ease of succeeding in the premier bites them in the arse.
I wonder where we'd be now if a certain Mr Cullum had got his way ? Doesn't bear thinking about and I must admit I would have bitten his hand off for the £20M at the time !
IMO the Saints have made the mistake of over-disrupting the squad which got them back to back promotions. Unfortunately for them, they had a sizeable pot for team "strengthening" in the summer. Having paid a lot of money for players like Rodrigues, Mayuka, Yoshida and Ramirez, they are going to have to be played. The only signing who has slotted seamlessly into the team has been Clyne. The (so far unsuccessful) attempt to shore up their defence has been at the cost of disrupting their attacking play, so they currently have the worst of both worlds, a rising goals against total and a dearth of compensating goals for. They would have done better I think to follow our (enforced) example from last season and just kept faith in the players who got them promotion. If you bring in half a new team in such a short time, there are bound to be problems.
Southampton's problem I believe was evident last night. Adam Lallana wears the same boots as my grandson and I thrashed him 18-12 up the park Saturday morning (he was 5-0 up when I sent him off though?). Until players stop copying teenagers football boots and wearing sensible black ones with three diagonal white stripes, I don't think they will survive the drop.
They just couldn't get the ball down and play last night. Posession was constantly given up in dangerous areas and their defence looks more shakey than ours in our first season. Some of the passing was criminal and easily intercepted. Then they turned into Stoke and it was even worse.
West Ham might also struggle later in the season, but I honestly believe Swansea will start dropping like a stone anytime now.
Another good set of results that improves our position relative to QPR,Villa (after a fright) Wigan and Sunderland.Home drawsfor Reading and Southampton against teams that they hoped,and judging by their boards expected to,get wins against.Our odds against relegation briefly moved ahead of QPR who at 5/4 against look amazingly good value.My latest prediction..36points for safety. This morning QPR moved to 8/5,we have lengthened to 6/4.
I just have a feeling that QPR will come good. I think they will sack Hughes and then have a boost and will be ok. They have the players required to avoid relegation, it's just getting them toplay together. Probably worth a few quid on to avoid relegation.
