I'm not sure what I'm more amazed about.... gmi's relentlessness or the fact that people are still getting involved. This is one of those rare occasions where if at first you don't succeed,.... give up and move on.
As things stand I THINK we will go down . If we do, I don't think it will be a disaster , I think we will come straight back up . If however we can just hang on until January and get a couple of decent backs in , then I think we can just about stay up . Still think we have done amazingly well to get to where we are , so I would of course be dissapointed if we went straight back down , but I would not be not totally devastated ( as regards football ) .
Agree with above. If things stay as they are (strangely enough as we're in the relegation zone), we will go down. I think (hope) two things will happen; the current crop of players will improve and we are likely to strengthen in January. However, if we go down we'll have a tough time coming straight back up.
No. I have a feeling we will at some stage string some good results together and get enough points to just stay up.
I wouldn't put it past you! All you have to do is bring in a few defenders in January- (perhaps Michael Dawson, you were linked with him before) and I'm sure you'll stay up. You're doing well up front, so sort out your defense .. and you'll stay up. Keep the Faith !
For an impartial view, follow the money. There's a lot of evidence to say that the odds on betting exchanges reflect the sum of all opinion on a matter. The CIA were at one stage planning to use a betting exchange system to predict terrorist events, as they tend to be very accurate. Public outcry prevented its being set up. We can still use them so take a look at the current numbers: Remember, though, that it has to be an exchange - bookies' odds won't do the job. Our current odds on Betfair to go down are 1.70 today. That would imply that we have a 58.8% chance of going down. As this is based on people putting real money down, academics would say that it probably truly reflects the likelihood of our going down. However, my impression is that short term market swings do affect the exchanges; people move as a herd. So, it might not be that bad. It's a decent rough guide to the real world's opinion, though. Vin
As things stand - it is difficult to predict because the odds of relegation will be impacted by the performance or otherwise of the teams around us - e.g. who is worse than us? On balance, however, based on the performances to date, we are likely to go down simply because we leak, on average, three goals per game. We might be able to tighten this up with new signings in January, but will the club spend the cash and will the right players be available? Heart says we might scape it because others will perform worse, head tells me otherwise...
I don't think academics would suppose that the 58% chance of going down, which is based on people's predictions, translates to mean that our risk of going down is 58% with 0 equating to no risk and 100 meaning inevitability.
Betfair suggests that 58% of people think we will go down not that there is a 58% chance of us going down. Odds (whether Betfair or Bookies) merely reflect what people think based on evidence in front of them or on prejudices.
The point is that plenty of studies have found that betting markets are excellent forecasting tools. As for people's prejudices and biases, the odds are a reflection of literally thousands of people's opinion. That's the point. So, they take into account some Saints fans' money blindly placed on Saints surviving as well as some West Ham fans' money blindly expecting us to go down. It all balances out to give a very accurate relfection of the true probabilityat any given moment. It's too big a subject for a brief post and I only posted in response to the comment about "what do non Saints fans think?" as a guideline. (If you want to read more, read "The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki.) As it happens, I think we will stay up but I'm happy to accept that it may be a less than 50% chance as things stand..
I would happy with a 50-50 chance at the mo, we can only improve and I do think our defence has improved but with Jose and Yoshy playing CB
Of the likely candidates to go down, I think Saints are best placed to come back up. You have worked through the leagues recently, retaining a good number of playing and coaching staff. You haven't made wholesale changes and you're not stale/static like two of the other candidates, who I think would struggle to get back.
Right now I'd say we're more likely to stay up than not, though that opinion could change pretty dramatically if we're still in the bottom three by Christmas. That said, I'm still fairly confident at the moment that we'll pick up three or four wins in our next eight, and reach January on a poor-but-palatable 15 to 18 points. That'd likely be sufficient to place us 16th or 17th, which would give us the inside track on survival if we can shore up the defense. The unknown factor here is the degree to which the other relegation-threatened clubs will improve; on the evidence thus far, the bar for survival looks a pretty low one, but that could change rather quickly if QPR wakes up, or Villa can provide Bent with some service/find someone else capable of scoring consistently. QPR worries me the most in that regard...they need only put together a couple months of attentive play to build a significant cushion, and they have the quality to do so.
GMI read most of your posts and whilst I don't agree with a lot, I respect your opinion. Got to call you out on the last point above though. Going down won't be a real disaster. It won't be ideal sure, but going in to administration, fear of losing your ground and club that would be a footballing disaster. It would be an inconvenience but We would still have an infrastructure to bounce back stronger. Or are my glasses rose tinted? In answer to the poll question, heart says we'll stay up; head says I wouldn't put money on it.
You beat me to it! When, not if, QPR gel they will give someone a good hiding and go on to be fine. They have some real quality in that squad and will probably add again in Jan.
