Surprised this thread hasn't already been started. No 1 in the World faces No 2 in the World on going that favours the challenger. So are the odds of 1/6 Frankel really representative of his chances on soft going? Let's take a look at the main challenger, Cirrus Des Aigles Since his 2yo season, where he failed to win in 4 attempts, Cirrus Des Aigles has run 9 times on ground descibed (by RP) as soft or softer, losing just twice. Beaten by Vision D'Etat on very soft over 2 years ago and went down to Polytechnicien by ½l, trying to concede 7lb, 19 months ago. Since that last defeat on the going he is 5 from 5 on soft or softer, by an aggregate 38l. However one reads the form, it is clear that Cirrus Des Aigles loves it soft or softer. The going at Ascot is currently forecast as soft. Whilst this may not be sufficient to plug the perceived supremacy gap, if it gets softer it will be very much in the challenger's favour. Nathaniel also likes to get his toe in but has only once encountered soft going. That was when he was beaten on début by Frankel. Although the winning distance was only ½l Frankel seemed to be winning rather cosily so I don't read too much into that. It was over 2 years ago and this is an extra 2f. Purely on the form book, Nathaniel would appear to have no chance with Frankel or Cirrus Des Aigles. Ridasiyna is another who likes to get her toe in being unbeaten on good to soft or softer. She demolished the tough Izzi Top in a G1 on heavy at Longchamp recently. Any more rain will do her chances no harm. She has an impressive pedigree, by Motivator (son of Montjeu) out of the Darshaan mare Ridafa who was out of a Kahyasi mare. Pastorius has, of course, finished in front of Novellist twice, most recently when beaten 1l by Arc heroine Danedream. But that was over 12f. Prior to that he won a 10f G1 impressively in the soft, by 8l. And since has won a G3 on good going over 10f. Declaration Of War has only run twice on turf, most recently on heavy at the Curragh. Clearly not inconvenienced by soft but looks hopelessly outclassed in this field. Master Of Hounds. I can't see anything in the form book that gives him any hope and one could wonder what he is doing here. Bullet Train will have his customary gallop. Summary. Some decent horses lining up against Frankel. If the going gets softer than soft it's going to be one hell of a leveller and I would not be taking those odds on Frankel. It will be a sight to behold if he demolishes this bunch.
Nathaniel is crying out for soft ground but the problem is that he is crying out for it over a mile and a half. It was pretty soft enough when he won at Ascot prior to the King George in 2011 when he hammered Fiorente et al and that for me showed him at his best- dictating from the front and galloping relentlessly. Cirrus has the tactical speed to really get himself involved and has Nathaniels measure on a sound surface over 10f. If it really does come up soft then Nathaniel will run his best ever 10f race and could challenge Cirrus (it really does not suit him as he lacks a gear change). He will need more than that though to beat Frankel who to be honest is simply in a class of his own. The key is in the knee action- Nathaniel has an unusually high knee action and it tends to lend itself to testing ground when it comes down to power and not necessarily speed and turn of foot. Frankel - Nathaniel- Cirrus in that order with Frankel 9L clear of the pair.
I haven't seen Nathaniel's action but if, as you say, he has an unusually high knee action, I agree the softer the better and the fact that he stays 12f well is a major benefit. He would have to try and take it up some way out and gallop them into the ground. Some task but that's his only chance.
I'm interested in Ridasiyna. Fillies have a good record in the Champion Stakes and the Aga Khan never sends horses over without a chance. She's a relatively late foal who never ran before this season and, apart from one poor run, she's won her other four races. Interesting contender at a big price..and who knows! Frankel may not get the fast ground he had at York and, with both Nathaniel and Cirrus Des Aigles not afraid to test his stamina, Frankel just may have to pull out all the stops.
I must say i am fearful in as much as rain is forecst from now all the way to Saturday itself and i feel that were it not his last race he would never be asked to run on ground as bad as he will encounter on Saturday. There is a case for pulling him out but i feel sportmanship and the awareness that the stands will be packed with many racegoers only there to see him will persuade connections to run. I danger is that Nathaniel will set sail for home very early and Tom Queally will not fancy staying with him so early and i wonder if he will peg him back on such bottomless going and the pesimist in me sees a possibility that Frankel is gaining from the two pole but never quite getting there. If he does to this field in this going what he has done to everything before then i honestly feel the debate about the best ever seen on a racecourse is over, in my opinion.
[video=youtube;zL3PN9wkypM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zL3PN9wkypM[/video] Good video of Nathaniels action there Ron. Also note at how he actually looks stronger at the line in the final half-furlong- full of stamina and therefore Frankel will just have too much speed for him. Soft ground gives him hope against Cirrus but Frankel has plenty in hand as long as he is ridden patiently.
Sir Henry is so brave. I found that a little emotional to watch. I do hope he fights back to full health.
I think Cirrus Des Aigles might make this field look very ordinary....And Frankel might make Cirrus Des Aigles look very ordinary.
I'm going Ron. I'll be roaring him on without a cent on. Don't even want to imagine the atmosphere if he does get beat. Cirrus Des Aigles is a heck of a horse. I rate him above Excelebration and Canford Cliffs. He'll like the ground too. Like I said though I genuinely believe Frankel is a different class. In fact I might put a quid on a keep the ticket.
I think Declaration of War could turn out to be a very decent horse and may snag 3rd if Nathaniel runs below form. Clearly not a betting proposition but I'm interested to see how he runs.
1/6 Frankel represents value. I don't care who is he up against - he will not get beat. I agree that Cirrus des Aigles is a better horse than Excellebration though. It would be nice for Frankel to actually be tested before he retires.
They did the same with Seabiscuit and Secretariat in the US. Hang on to your racecard too - I'm sure Sir Henry would sign it if you sent it to him in a few weeks time, with an SAE.
For me frankel is the greatest ever without a doubt but the race that will secure his legacy is not This race ! It's all about the other horses for me cirrus des aigles looks a shoot in the breeders cup turf ! Excelebration behind frankel so many times in group 1 races will win the QEII and the breeders cup mile ! Deceleration of war will be aimed at the classic he may not win but will go close the French filly could also win the f&m turf which leaves nathanial and bullet train . Nathanial is a proven group 1 horse and one of the best around but it seems to be his trip I would pack him off to America next year and pick up 6-8 group 1 without having a race
