Thought Glean might be getting on top but didn't finish as strongly there. It's okay though, only 0.9 liability so that leaves us profit at +1.1 from 3 bets.
2.10 Curragh: Salhooda Laid at 2.7/1 A promising debut 2nd by the Dermot Weld horse but I'm not sure the form is as solid as it can appear on paper. Yes the 3rd was rated 83 but it was an exposed 83 and was already closely matched with the winner Greek Goddess on previous form anyway, so I don't think it was as good as you might think. The O'Brien horse Hanky Panky is open to consdierable improvement and I'm not sure any Nayef filly would want to be dropping from 1m to 7f and I think Salhooda looks more of a laying opportunity here. REHNS NEST looks a typically tough Jim Bolger filly and shaped with considerable promise behind the impressive BIG BREAK of Dermot Welds LTO (sister to Famous name). I think the good ground that day suited Big Break anbd I suspect the testing conditions today will play right into his hands, being a son of Authorized. 2.15 Epsom: Sanjuro (Laid at 4/1) Promising type but I think to be trying to win a nursery off 83 on only your 3rd start is a tough task. He might well be upto it and if he is then he ought to be tried at Listed level next. However Mick Channon is not shy of having a tilt at such high levels and the fact this horse runs in a nursery suggests he might not be upto that level. Up against some solid opposition with a lot of experience, and I think that might count against him on the undulating track at Epsom and being so different to the Sandown right-handed track he faced last time out. LAMUSAWAMMA looks like a nailed on improver in nurseries under Paul Hanagan for Ed Dunlop, especially from a mark of just 71, while BEEDEE looks to have improved markedly for the step up to 7f when bagging a Kempton nursery in style LTO from a NTO winning 3rd (won off 77) and beat that rival by close to 7 lengths! The mark of 85 may not yet be behind this Richard Hannon entrant. I certainly would not discount Mishaal from Roger Varians stable although its a stiff looking mark, but Neil Callan tends to ride Epsom quite well and he may yet improve. Even more interesting is the first time headgear on Sir Mark Presocott's MEDICOE, who could dominate from the front if allowed, especially as stamina is assured dropping down from a good run at 1m. Hipster is a value shout in changed headgear having had close form with animals who have gone on to be placed off marks in the 90s, so a mark of 80 may not yet be behind that one if the visor eeks out any improvement.
3.35 Muss Miss Elany (Laid at 2.7/1) Won well LTO when making all but a 7lb rise in the weights looks a bit harsh and I think there was definitely a run of the race there. Two big threats stand out in particular to me in this race. The first is the likeable Hot Rod Mama who will relish it at 1m today and whose form of his solid 5th was franked by the ultra-consistent NEW HAMPSHIRE when he last ran. I expect a really big run today. The second is Honeymead- down in class and if you ignore the Ascot run on very fast ground LTO (doesn;t suit this Pivotal filly), then IMO the horse should have a favourites chance. Therefore at these prices, I think Miss Elany is a lay.
2.00 Wolverhampton: Ebble (Laid at 2.15/1) Basically the main issue I have here is that the horse has looked like a step up in trip wouldnt be out of the question, not the step down around a sharp Wolverhampton bend! I can see CRAZY TOO stealing this from the front under the right sort of ride and I also think Hayley Turner will hold up LEVI DRAPER for a late run to mow down the front runners, if getting the luck in running. 2.10 Ayr: AlexandraKollantei (Laid at 3/1) - Relished the mud last time out but a patchy profile and a 6lb rise is enough for me to lay. Additionally, I think Ingelby Symphony will relsh the stiff 7f in the mud and go very close for Richard Fahey. This is also a much better assignment for MUDAWWEM, who ran okay in behind a very promising Richard Fahey trio at Chester and should be feared from top weight at this level.
Really annoyed at the way they let that race unfold there- Crazy Too hampered because they didnt use his rail position. Very annoying. Might not be a good day here! 2.20 Sedgefield: JAMEEL (Laid at 1.78/1) -We know John Ferguson does well wth these types but here is a McCain horse at Sedgefield in the field- HONG KONG ISLAND. Looks an ideal type to recruit to hurdling and I fancy it to outbattle a smooth travelling but scruffy jumping Jameel. I can't have Saed Bin Suroor horses going hurdling FFS.
Cheers Sizing. Little bit of a frustrating start as I seem to be hitting a lot of 2 out of 3s- or 65%ish overall. Hoping to get that up to 80%. Very early days yet and a long National Hunt winter ahead.
1.30 Salisbury: GREATWOOD (Laid at 1.22/1) Very promising debut, no two ways about it. Not sure how strong the form is yet On paper it is good- beating horses who had achieved marks in the 80s is very solid maiden form. However I'm not sure it warrants being a close to even money shot and I think there is a similar strength of formline elsewhere here- in the shape of Godolphins Tawhid and secondly Lions Arch of Richard Hannon. Tawhid showed up exceptionally well for a long, long way in the already strong form Ascot maiden won by Snow King (Telescope 2nd) and once he was headed was given a very easy time of things by Mikael Barzalona. He is bound to be more clued up this time and should see the trip out much, much better, especially if Frankie sets the right fractions on him. Lions Arch was only beaten 2 and a half lengths on Doncaster debut, travelled perhaps best of all and finished well under hands and heels from Jimmie Fortune. He beat the Hannon 1st string that day, Emulating, which means he is of a similar standard through that form with Goodwood winner ZAMOYSKI, who beat Emulating a similar distance. Interesting that Space Ship was only a length and a half in front of Lions Arch, and Space Ship has since finished 2nd to the mighty promising Telescope himself, confirming the form lines with Zamoyski too, and therefore Lions Rock looks a vry intersting bet IMO and gives me a reason to lay this favourite. This is a maiden with way more depth than the market gives credit.
Just come onto your thread Toppy to put forward a Lay pick and you have already picked it... Greatwood is the one and im with you on the call for Lions Arch. Hughes up top, taking over from Jimmy Fortune, makes it one for me to take Greatwood on just as you have pointed out... I wont say great minds as you posted your thoughts last night and i only looked at this one today... Lets hope so...
Although Hughes got blocked for room and didnt win on Lions Arch, your pick didnt win either Toppy... Good call... So Beloved looked a cosy winner though... One to keep an eye on...
Good stuff Red. One more for the day is CUSHION 3.55 Notts Laid at 1.4/1 I fancy the Godolphin newcomer and SMS newcomer which have lovely pedigrees. The Hills newcomer by Rail Link will relish a bit of give underfoot and it could be the undoing of Cushion, who may not get home if not settling again.
Well Cushion was so keen early and could not peg back the winner, though it wasn't a horse I thought would beat it. Better day and that improves the overall figures to 8 from 11 (72.7%), which is a little bit closer to where we want to be, and a level £1 stakes profit of £2.35. So about a 20% return on investment.
3.55 Newmarket OSTAAD (Laid at 3.2/1) Promising debut indeed but it is difficult to weigh up Kempton maiden form and there looks a serious amount of well bred talent to take on in this. LAYL ought to be your typically well-drilled smooth travelling Street Cry colt, a sire who does so well in 2 Y O maidens. NUMBER ONE LONDON represents the excellent Ascot form of Snow King/Telescope and I think will go very close to advertising that here, especially with big improvement expected on 2nd start. 3.50 Gowran SIZING EUROPE (Laid at 1.1/1) Sizing is rarely at his best at this time of year and with another year on his back you have to wonder. He is likely to be aimed at bigger events down the line, IMO possibly a tilt at the King George in what is likely to be a very open year in that race, as 2 miles might be on the sharper side now. 2 and a half miles he does stay, but he struggled in this race last year before a Rubi Light fall handed it to him, and this time FIRST LIEUTENANT gets the ground he wants- good. I'll take a chance on there not being much rain and for First Lieutenant to see out the race better than Sizing on their seasonal debuts. FORPADY will run well if continuing to build on some promising improvement in form towards the end of last season, and if he is fully fit first time up he will be there pitching if the front two are not at their best.
Just a quick note to look at the racing from Towcester today, in which it reveals we have 4 or 5 races with short odds favs at the head of the market... I am sure that we must be able to turn one of em over today... But which one...
Difficult for me to gauge that one Oddy. I don't feel comfortable laying bumper horses because of the way the market reveals things. Can see why you would want to take it on though at that price. 3.30 Nottingham SICUR (Laid at 1.6/1) Nice form and a really eyecatching run LTO at Doncaster. However, EMPIRE MAKER will show marked improvement after a tonne of promise amidst greenness when 6L behind Telescope at Newmarket. Bred to be smart and bred to show up well from the very start of his career. Experience will really help him. Also think SMS will reveal a smart one today in the form of Berkely Street. Bred in the Royal colours, he strikes me as a similar sort of profile to Carlton House so I will want a good look at him on the screens before the race and possibly have him in the notebook. I always like Godolphin runners at Nottingham and SADIQ should know its job well and is well bred. Looks an ideal trip on breeding for the mix of speed (Invincible Spirit) and stamina on the dam side.
Close but that Cecil horse seemed to have a bit up its sleeve. Will be a very interesting 10f horse on quick ground next year.
