Cant see Camelot winning on the ground, they said he hated soft ground so hard to see him winning an Arc on it.
Will stick with the 3-year-olds and dutch Saonois and Masterstroke. Probably a sporting R/F too! GL to all who have a wager on this great race!
Apparently Camelot doesn't even like walking on the soft going. The Irish Derby was a struggle; this could be a nightmare for him. If it's very soft he should be taken out; but he won't be. The way the ground is looking I'm tempted towards Great Heavens & Sea Moon and I have to include Yellow and Green. May be worth remembering that St Nich has only encountered soft to heavy going once and that was on his impressive racecourse début as a 2yo
Great Heavens will grind them all down 2f out, With a very small cheeky ew on Mikhail Glinka EW Asvthenwife pointed out that it had won on heavy. You never know¿
Can't believe Imperial Monarch doesn't run ffs Would love SNA to win it but I very much doubt it on that ground. Would save him for the BC if I owned. my bets Ernest Hemingway @100/1 SNA @ 10/1 (ANTE POST) bigger now ffs Hope Camelot wins if them two are ****eee
you seem to cut it off at 1993 ,urban sea from stall 9 ,but white muzzle came a neck 2nd from stall 23 of 23 runners! if you had gone back a few more years ,starting with carroll house in 1989 than you could of added 3 more double figure draw winning positions of 16,12 and 14! also no account of the ground was taken because single figures only seems to be of a advantage when the ground rides good or faster ,on genuine gdsf,soft,holding and heavy there were 11 races from 1989 to 2010 run on such slow ground and 5 of these 11 years have gone to double figures. in that very period of testing ground arcs,single figures have had 17% more representation than double figures, yet it was almost even in wins! and some of those single draw figure winning years simply won by default as double figures werent represented like rail links 2006 win , there was only 8 runners so double figured draws didnt even get a representation ! so does orfevre really have no chance from stall 18 on very soft going????? of the "won a middledistance group 1 by 2l or more" stat, st nic(coronation cup 4.5l) and orfevre(Takarazuka Kinen 2l) also have done that this season ,not just camelot and great heavens.
Orfevre is still the one to beat, his class advantage negates the draw, and as pilsudski has pointed out, its not impossible to win from a high draw, Sakhee won from 16 because he was different class, if Orfevre is the horse I think he is he can overcome the draw against this substandard field. Great Heavens is a decent filly in her own right but shes a plodder and she wont be winning an Arc in a month of Sundays, the fact that she is now 3rd in the betting tells you everything about this field. If Orfevre gets the little bit of luck in running that you need in an Arc then he will win comfortably, putting a line through Camelot, St Nic and Shareta on the ground, Great Heavens is too slow, Masterstroke has the form of a 50/1 chance, he holds Meandre easily and he has far too many gears for Sea Moon who is also drawn wide in 16. I would be most scared of Camelot as I think he is the only horse in the race with close to the engine that Orfevre possesses, but he has had a poor preparation and conditions are against him so Saonois from a good draw looks the only real danger to me but he will need luck to be against the Japanese horse to have any chance of beating it. If Big Mac was on, after the race he would be saying "ladbrokes, they knew, only 7/2 in the morning, Paddy Power were tops at 5/1". So simple this game. And ladbrokes have it spot on, shortest price on Orfevre, Camelot and Saonois. Forget the rest.
Win Variation cant get near Orfevre and he finished in front of both Dandream and Shareta in the Japan Cup, he also had Buena Vista who won the Japan cup well beaten in the Arima Kinen.
Here is the Arima Kinen, where the 3yo triple crown winner stepped up to face his elders, the field was responsible for 17 Group 1 wins, excluding Orfevre a 5 time Group 1 winner, 19 Group 2 wins, including winners of Japanese 1000 Guineas, Oaks, Derby, Japan Cup, Dubai World Cup, two Tenno Sho winners, and 4 of the beaten horses went on to fill the the first 4 places in last years Takarazuka Kinen(race Orfevre won this season) producing a track record. Orfevre was held up 3rd last and won cheekily after making a huge move on the outside and I dont think anything in this Arc field can live with these credentials to be honest. [video=youtube;RIkauXgubyo]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIkauXgubyo[/video] Worth noting that even the mighty Deep Impact got turned over in this race after winning the Triple Crown.
Here are early PMU qoutes: Saonois - 3.5 Camelot - 5.8 Orfevre - 6.3 Masterstroke 10.0 Shareta - 11.0 Meandre - 12.0 Yellow and Green - 18.0 Great Heavens - 18.0 Of course, the above early money predominantly reflects cash bet in the various bistros etc with PMU outlets - mostly 'French' Euros???
on a strict formline thats true,but the 2011 japan cup was only a moderate pace last year (2nd slowest halfway split in the last 7 years) hence why i think shareta narrowed the 5l arc beating to just 1.25 lengths behind danedream in it. win variations jockey seemed to know they werent going that fast so made a earlier than normal move to get him closer up whilst danedreams jockey waited like he did in the arc ,but the field didnt tire like they did in the arc because of the moderate early pace .i would put danedream in front of win variation if they ever met in a more truly run event,but still it looks like orfevre is still in front of danedream ,which doesnt matter now, but he's a fair bit in front of shareta!
My implication was that no 'tourists' would be out of their scratchers at this ungodly hour and that the early 'money' would be from 'regulars' to their local boozer!! On a separate point I cannot wait until I am using Euros to buy my bread etc. in Auld Reekie; hope you get my drift!! Looking forward to a 'YES' vote in 2014!!!!
BK: If that's what you all want, then take it. Split into three, we'll look like Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, in mainland UK? Ah well, that's life.......Personally, have no time for ultra-nationalists of any ilk.
Jongleur, I look upon myself as an individual from a country which is, for the most part, more socialist than other parts of the UK. What I mean by this is that there are parts of Edinburgh and other major cities in Scotland where they return either Labour or SNP members of the UK parliament whereas in England they would return Conservative MPs. I do not feel this is being 'ultra-nationalist' but wishing for a voting constituency where a more equitable society is desirable. Good luck on today's punting!
BK: Yes, I do get your points, really do. Find it all a bit sad though, had a Scottish grandpa believe it or not! I really do live in a Conservative (CSU) land down here, my God, but the mayor is SPD. Don't know how on earth he did it, but Herr Ude is pretty popular. BTW, your team are unbelievable this season, one more win from a perfect start, and they've busted a Bundesliga record. Good luck to you too with your bets today. Are you actually in Paris for the big meeting' If so, have a great time!
Morning all, always reading posts on here, interesting & homourous,I don't very often post anything myself, but i want to get involved today!! Earlier in the week I backed Camelot but unfortunately the ground has gone against him, so I'm now concentrating more on my 2 e/way bets,Sea Moon & Great Heavens, particularly Sea Moon. In 2 earlier races on the same card I've had backed Olympic Glory which I backed @ Goodwood & impressed me then & Izzi Top , what do u good people think of these picks?? Good luck to all today.
Jongleur, Gave up on The Arc weekend a few years ago; my last trip was the Deep Impact year. Too busy with British people grumbling about price of food and drink plus, although not their first visit, becoming agitated with lower PMU return than when they placed their bet. Was a wee bit disappointed that, when Deep Impact ran, they were not handing out German or Bavarian flags; only French, Irish. British and Japanese!! I was interviewed on the Saturday by Japanese TV and advised the very beatiful young lady that Rail Link would win! Interview ended abruptly. I will repeat my earlier visits to Paris in November for 'Le Week-end International de L'obstacle'. Jumps racing of the same standard as a day at the Cheltenham Festival for four euros. Bundesliga great but a bit of a shocker in Belosussia; why drop Schweinsteiger!!!!!! Back to Munich in January; cant wait. Although I have backed a few in The Arc I am beginning to think Saonois is the one!!!
Wide variance in the opinion of the going at Longchamp. SL & ATR quote good-to-soft (??), but RP and the Racebets people say heavy. The latter will probably prove to be correct?
