Hi Reebok. I assumed it settled at the back due to its draw but even the hold ups in the Arc seem to benefit from the low draw by saving energy. I'm still hoping for Camelot & better ground, but , if my luck doesn't hold, I think this is could be an interesting alternative.
I'm torn with Great Heavens. I was against her in Ireland and 2f out I thought (just as I thought, outpaced)- then she didn't just rally, she ****ing took off. She put that race to BED. Won going away. She might be ridden totally differently in France and I can see Buick going for the Nathaniel tactics and taking up the running hal a mile out and asking them to go past her if they can. Surely it is her only way. She has the draw. I can't get away from looking at the 3 year old record here and thinking 'this filly has a featherweight, a progressive profile, and has won a Group 1 by more than 2L'. Maybe she is special? Why not? I think the more rain, the better. At least there will be some cut. Whether it is enough remains to be seen. At the same time, Camelot must have a mighty chance if he really does run to his reputation. On a line through Main Sequence he is comfortably ahread of the French 3 year olds and then it is a question of him beating. I think if the ground doesn't come up testing, we might see Camelot rout the field. It might sond hypocritical of me- perfectly understandable as I have often questioned his form. But he hasn't got the 4 Y O opposition I thought he would face, the 3 year old bunch is looking more and more mediocre, the Jap is drawn out in the car park and Aiden O'Brien might have found the perfect race for him to piss off to stud to- relatively untested and still to face a top class 4 year old. Would be so typically Ballydoyle, wouldn't it? I had a feeling he might not win the Leger but as a specimen I thought he looked ****ing magnificent and there is no denying that if the rae was over a mile and a half that day, he'd have possibly won on the bridle. He clearly has an engine. I wonder if that Leger race makes a man of him. So many what ifs because we have no handle on his form!
I think after all the analysis, we have missed the big thing here. A 3 year old who won so impressively on debut before shaping amiss in May, has been bought back to the boil gradually and is going off at 1000/1 on the exchanges. I told you that ERNEST HEMINGWAY would make a top Group 1 horse
Just been looking back at my raving over Great Heavens. Sometimes I let sentiment rule my head. I'm just visualising my emotions as they are inside the final furlong. If Camelot or Orfevre look like pissing it I will be clapping in appreciation If Great Heavens looks to have a live chance I will be screaming for her because I have become attached to her If SNA comes to take it up I will be pleased because I feel he deserves it. If Sea Moon wins I will be pleased because I singled him out for the Arc last year and I am sitting on a £50 win at 14/1 on my £10k Betting Experiment Stage 1. Quite honestly, if anything else comes to win it there will be no emotions from me whatsoever, even if I have a dabble on Yellow and Green and she wins. I might just feel a little smug.
Topclass. That race was not unlike winning a seller ! Was quick time though. Already backed that & Robin Hood antipost for fiver a piece at 1000/1. Throwing away money but always back all O'brien's team when Team O'brien play. Two usually rush of in front & sometimes one doesn't get caught. Happened earlier this year when windsor palace beat 2/5 Fav SNA & I was on at 850/1, Betfair antipost. Luck, but has nearly happened in a couple of Derbys before.
Really upset with ATR Ron. They said it had changed to Good & then 20 mins later was Very Soft. Just watched first race & clearly Very Soft/Heavy. Had more on Camelot & Saonois on ATR's info. Gutted ! Don't think Camelot will even run now.
How can the Ground have changed from their Soft Ground description 48 hrs ago with no rainfall. Surely they havn't continued watering !!! Even I didn't elieve that the French ground reorts could be this misleading. O'brien said yesterday that he believed that the ground was/ would be Good/Soft.
Watched CIRRUS DES AIGLES earlier and it looked very soft. However, they seemed to be in a 2nd track, and the Arc track on the inside looked in much better nick. Can anyone confirm how the track works at Longchamp?
RP website has listed the going for the Arc as 'very soft' (they do seem to change it though) Could play into the hands of a German bred horse
According to Wiki Longchamp "is noted for its variety of interlaced tracks and a famous hill that provides a real challenge to competing thoroughbreds. It has several racetracks varying from 1,000 to 4,000 metres in length with 46 different starting posts." There is a map of the tracks here. No idea if the Arc is on a track that, apart from the finishing straight, will be fresh.
from my french correspondent Walked the course after racing, it is proper soft ground, holding, lifeless and slow. Racing today has opened it up and if it rains overnight, it'll get quite tacky and testing. Straight seems slowest part of all. light drizzle at the mo, showers expected.
And I've just checked the prices How about this, blue across the board YELLOW AND GREEN 14/1,16/1,20/1,16/1,16/1,18/1,16/1,SP,14/1
John Gosden must be gutted - Nathaniel would be looking good right now. Great Heavens looks good but I know which I'd fancy more. Sea Moon looks the value - how he's longer than Great Heavens I don't know. I'd have to say this looks like a watcher rather than a bet-er for me, although I have a couple of very small money bets on Y&G e/w and Ernest Hemmingway tbp.
Was looking at this race for about hour just now, had a shortlist of 3 (camelot,Sanois & Seamoon) then with all of sudden crossed them off and went with Masterstroke and a smal e/w on Y&G
