Yep. Ground is my last concern for both Camelot & saonois. Is it really Soft there ? Green & Yellow is 33/1 with Victor paying 4 places.
1. 10/10 - Won a Group 1 race previously 2. 9/10 - Raced 4 or more times that season 3. 8/10 - Returned 10/1 or shorter. Odds done on those around or less than. 4. 8/10 - Won by a 3 years-old 5. 8/10 - Won from stall 6 or lower 6. 8/10 - Won over 1m4f previously 7. 8/10 - Won their last race 8. 8/10 - Won at least 5 times previously 9. 7/10 - Had raced at Longchamp before Sea Moon 3 (3, 6, 8) St Nicholas Abbey 6 (1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9) Meandre 5 (1, 2, 6, 8, 9) Mikhail Glinka 4 (2, 6, 7, 8) Robin Hood 1 (3) Orfevre 7 (1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9) Aventino 1 (9) Shareta 7 (1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9) Haya Landa 3 (2, 5, 9) Solemia 4 (2, 5, 6, 9) Bayrir 4 (1, 2, 4 9) Kesampour 3 (2, 4, 9) Camelot 7 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8) Masterstroke 6 (2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9) Ernest Hemingway 2 (4, 5) Saonois 9 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) Yellow And Green 5 (2, 4, 5, 6, 9) Great Heavens 6 (1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7) ... And the winner is Saonois! Other interesting ones 2/10 - Won by a UK-based yard 5/10 - Won by a French-based yard 2/10 - Ridden by Kieren Fallon
Ground not mentioned i'm afraid Ron, from a Richard Dunwoody article on the SportingLife website http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8130855/orfevre-has-to-up-his-game
Hi Ron. Problems with my PC won't let me instal plugins to view you're above. Would be so kind as to give me the jist? Many Thanks
As I said many times there are only 2 stats that matter in the Arc. Namely: 12 out of the last 13 winners, that season, had won a middle distance Group 1 by 2+ lengths 17 out of the last 19 winners had a single figure draw This year there are 2 qualifiers namely CAMELOT and the recently supplemented GREAT HEAVENS.
The draw is very interesting and has changed my perspective of the race. It's one of the reasons I'm yet to play. Whilst it's not impossible to win from a high draw I think it takes a lot of class and luck in running. With doubts over how ready Great Heavens and Camelot are and the worst possible draw for Orfevre where do you look to now? Indeed if you rule out the two British runners I have already mentioned as not being ready (a huge call I know but for simplicity's sake they're gone) and the rule out others based on double figure draw you find only 1 of the first 10 in the betting is drawn in a single figure stall. The supplemented Saonois must have come out of trials day well and be ready to run again. 9/1 looks a very fair price. I think there is a horse at a stand-out price. Yellow and Green has a plum draw in stall 3, has every right to be progressive and ran a bigger race than the raw position suggests behind Shareta LTO. I'm going to include a link to the race http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w595aNzm5vk there's two things to note here. Watch how Yellow and Green get's completely blocked at the back of the field before flying home when she finally gets a run. Secondly consider that she was drawn 13 of 13, the worst possible draw. Outrunning a draw is something I like and I think she's done that. She fits the 3yo criteria and thus carriers 8-8. 28/1 feels huge and she must have a better chance of placing than her odds suggest. Yellow and Green e/w 28/1 also consider Saonois 9/1.
I'm not trying to overcomplicate this I hope, I can't fully rule out the possibililty of Camelot smashing the lot. This is hardly the strongest Arc I've ever seen and he is undoubtedly a quality horse. That said Ledger runners don't have a great record and there's a doubt with the ground as well. I don't consider him value.
Hi GGW. Re your stance on holding back until after the Draw. I'm very surprised to note that there has been hardly any price movement on Betfair since the draw. Basically the same odds for all the runners now as were available last night ! Presumaly people don't believe the draw is relevent. I'll certainly remember this for next year.
Orfevre drawn 18 Going to be difficult from there, but Soumillon is the Arc Master and im sticking with him to overcome it, stats dont win races.
Thanks for the link George. I'd already pulled out this one but that video just adds to her chances. I think she was 33s yesterday. Can't see her being more than 16s on the day. If she wins it will be possible to look back and consider her as the form horse. I have a soft spot for Great Heavens but I appreciate she will need to have improved a deal to be in with a chance.
Nice one Ron hope she shortens I got on today. There's a form line between the two in Princess Highway who finished 3 lengths behind Yellow and Green in that race I've linked. Given that Yellow and Green had a bad passage and could well be progressive (that was her first Group 1 race and as you said only her 5th race) I know I'd rather be on Y & G at 28s than Great Heavens at 10s. Really pleased to see her trainer's current form as well (take into account the prices as well): http://www.racingpost.com/horses/trainer_home.sd?trainer_id=4942#topTrainerTabs=trainer_record_race_form&bottomTrainerTabs=trainer_big_race_wins I think we can be hopeful of a career best performance all being well!
Trainer for Saonois says in great form but worried aout Soft ground. Trainer for Yellow & Gold says in Great form, will improve for latest run where was deliberately easy on the horse & wants Soft ground. Backed both but took 33/1 EW on Y/G with Victor this morning with the 4 places. If its really Soft, this could become my best hope ! Other two are Camelot 8/1 Average & Orfevre 16/1 . Been lucky so far & Hopeful.
PS I said on Wedns (Page 9) that after rewatching the race several times, I would back Yellow & Green against Shareta at level prices, given a decent draw. Now Yellow & Green has a better draw but is approc 4 times the price. Bayernkeney first flagged it to me after he took 50/1. Looks a good EW bet now, particularly if the ground comes up really soft.
Thanks Ron. I thought I was missing something vital in your post. Are you going tomorow ? I'm going to give Coquet one more chance EW in the 12.30. I thought she was very unlucky in the Oaks & could be the outsider in the betting.
The plan was to go Campo but my daughter isn't well, possibly won't stop her but the horses need looking after and my wife has had to go over to England for a couple of days. Looking unlikely at present, much as we want to go.
I saw the video of Shareta's race showing Yellow and Green coming through late, and agree with George, Ron and others that it looks impressive. However, I haven't been able to find out anything more about (him?) and would be concerned that if he is normally held up in his races, that number three draw will be worthless. I was actually more impressed by the second - Piriki (spelling?) who isn't even entered. That said - my other antepost bets are high in the draw, so I've joined the Y&G fanclub for a few shekels
