Looks like Camelot is a 'goer' on Sunday (RP)!!! If Great Heavens was supplemented what do my fellow contributors think would be a 'fair' price - 14/1?
This week's Arc De Triomphe is looking more and more like one of those presents kids get for pulling a duck out of the water at a fairground- not worth what you pay to have a go! Forgetting what may or not run- and what may have won a month ago- you have to look at the form of what's left 'in the cold light of day.' As I see it, St Nicholas Abbey represents great each way value at 15/1 for the win and 3.9/1 for a place (stakes included) on Betfair. He is fully exposed but, given that he wasn't put in the race early enough in the King George or the Irish Champion, he still finished well. Also, he ran well in the Arc last year- when arguably far too much use was made of him. We all know this year's three year old form is nothing special and, however hard you look at the rest of the field, nothing really stands out. If St Nicholas Abbey is given a good ride, I don't think there's any way he won't go close against this mediocre bunch. I think he's real value at that current price and have had a good bet on him.
Hi Tamerlo. In the only race SNA has won this year, he was slightly slower than camelot at Epsom over the same distance on the same day at level weights. Camelot will be a stronger, more mature horse now as he approaches becoming a 4 yr old but will be in receipt of 8 lbs. I quite like SNA as a horse but I think the last horse to win the Arc after being previously unsuccessful was Corrida in 1936. Corrida came 3rd as a 3 yr old in 1935 & then won back to back arc's in 1936 & 1937. There have been an awfully large number of horses since who have tried to win the Arc after failing previously.
PS Watching the way team O'brien operate, I wouldn't be surprised if SNA is in the arc as a pacemaker for Camelot !
Great Heavens has taken support on Betfair much the same way as Masked Marvel did last year. Keep your eyes peeled Camelot is without question their main hope if he runs. St Nichols Abbey ultimately ran a very prominent position last year with So You Think flying home late, and could well do the same for Camelot this year. SNA is as shorty as 9/1 at the moment- astonishing. I backed him at 85/1 last year on Betfair a couple of days before the race! Sea Moon would beat SNA if it comes up soft so he looks the e/w shout if conditions suit.
Hi, Campo. Yes, I agree with you about Arc horses not winning after failing previously. Yet isn't this an unusual Arc and a relatively poor renewal? St Nicholas just may have a chance because of that. There's a hell of a lot of reasons why he can't win, but I can't make out many reasons why the rest of the field will either; and i just don't think the rest are any better than him- on form ratings, or whatever. As regards Camelot and statistics, I don't think St Leger horses have any record to speak of in the Arc and, in all honesty, would you back Camelot based on his last performance?
Although previous years' losers have a bad record, 3 of the 4 that finished in front of SNA last year, and who were prominent in the betting for this year's renewal, are now out of the race and the other one finished only a nk in front. How many are thought good enough to have another crack? Youmzain of course, but how many others? I don't think he will win but it's not inconceivable. This is one of those stats that have no logic.
Sorry for that news Ron. I know exactly how it feels; been there many times ! Tamerlo. As I discussed with Ron earlier, I suspected that camelot would have fitness & stamina issues in the Leger & therefor I wasn't as disappointed with the run as many. For a 3yr old, lightly raced horse with only 3 previous runs that season, it didn't make sense to take on its main target off the back of a near 3 month absence (11 weeks). That preparation screamed Arc target to me & I suspect O'brien expected Camelot to have an easier time of it. The 3 weeks is exactly the same(1 day extra) as the Arc trials for the French 3 yr olds coming back from their summer break.
Ron there are loads. Last year alone, there was workforce, sarafina, Nakayama Festa. The logic is that the 3 yr olds have to carry 8 lbs more next time & the older horses don't improve sufficiently for a second attempt. Its just too long to be just coincidence in my humle opinion.
In general, horses are nowhere near mature at 3 (although some are clearly more mature and developed than others) so they could easily improve 8lbs from 3 to 4. Maybe those that are good enough to win at 3 rarely come back to race at 4 (Alleged and Ribot aside) and those not good enough at 3 (but thought to be mature enough) won't improve enough to win the following year. Maybe the late maturers would not be taking on the Arc at 3 and could well progress enough to be considered good enough at 4 (eg Harbinger is a case in point but we never got to find out). Sea Moon and Orfevre might be other examples but they aren't in the same league as Harbinger was at 4 years, nor progressing at the same rate (both were considered forward enough to run and win as 2yos). Maybe there is some logic behind that stat after all. Can't even think about the going differences from one year to the next. It's difficult to see how anything beaten last year could reverse the placings with Danedream unless the ground was very different but, with her out, we are looking at 3 horses that had just one length covering them last year, in 2nd 5th and 6th. Unless the draw has a major effect on their chances and/or one of those 3 has progressed more than the other two, any of those 3 could beat the other two without it being a surprise. If they are ruled out by the stat though what are we left with that stand a chance? Two 4yos that didn't run in last year's race (Sea Moon and Orfevre) The top rated 3yo that ran in the St Leger (Camelot) Other lightly raced 3yos that could be dark horses (Masterstroke, Imperial Monarch and Yellow And Green). I have a soft spot for Sea Moon because after the St Leger last year I picked him for this year's Arc. If Great Heavens is supplemented I also have a soft spot for her (but it won't be soft enough for her to excel). Can't fancy Masterstroke or Imperial Monarch having looked at the form. Wouldn't know which to back before the withdrawals and I'm no better off now. The dark horse could well be Yellow And Green. Not the best of runs behind Shareta but only 3l behind in a fast time. Didn't race as a 2yo and that was only her 5th run so could be a progressive type.
Hi Ron. Have you had a look at Yellow and Green. 33/1 EW with Coral could be a decent bet. She had a terrible draw in the Vermaille but made very good ground up the outside under a fairly tender ride at the end. This off the back of a long summer break & by Monsun. Did you back it Bayernkenny when you flagged it to us?
Campo, I had already taken Hills opening offer of 50/1 each way! Research had shown it was an intended runner and the form was not bad. Also influenced by last year's result with two three year old fillies being first and second. I do however understand that one year does not make a trend. By the way what's with Hills one fifth the odds for The Arc and the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup??? Fortunately had a small interest in Camelot at 6/1.
Well done on a great price. I've watched that race several times & would be prepared to back it at level prices to beat Shareta next time in the Arc, assuming it gets a decent draw. As shareta is currently a quarter of its price, it looks a good EW bet. The bookies really take the P.ss sometimes !
According to France Galop (forfeit 2) Imperial Monarch out and Camelot still in. Sixteen remain with supplements tomorrow at 09.30 (BST). Possible supplemented horses: Great Heavens - going? Bayrir - original target was BC Turf but recent withdrawals could change minds of trainer/owner.
Do you mean have I noticed her? Yep, my dark horse above. Or her odds? Yep, looked it up after my post. 33/1 looks good ew value.
