Daily Thread Friday 28th September

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woolcombe-folly007

woolcombe-folly007

Well-Known Member
May 9, 2011
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East Sussex
Evening all,

A good day 1 of the Cambridgshire meeting, a few fancies tomorrow;

13.45- Newmarket- Thistle Bird - 7/2

Another winner for Lady Rothschild looks on the card, She has won three times at Listed level this season and her only defeat was a narrow one at the hands of Premio Loco in Group 2 company at Goodwood. She is very much the form horse and could prove bery hard to past if in front come the furlong pole. She has beaten the boys in previous listed company and know is back amongst the girls, so will have know problem in being the queen of the pack.

14.20 Newmarket- Most Improved- 9/2

A wide open race in terms of Ratings, and really the only shock winner would be the 105 rated Saigon. Most Improved imo the only true Group One horse in the race and altho the likes of Side Glance & Joviality have run in them, Most Improved (doe excuse me if Im wrong is the only horse in the field to have won a groupe 1 race) Altho lto in france he massviely underperformed when coming 11/11 to Excelebration, before that he won The St James Palace Stakes beating 2000 Gunieas french raider 3rd Hermival, also that race holds some very good form. And if on the same form he willtake somne stopping.


16.00 Newmarket- Harris Tweed- 5/1

Only a very small stake on one of my fav horses in training, as I feel he will be vcarrying to much weight. He has been slightly disappointing since winning at Newbury earlier this year, but you can never rule him out, especially if the rain keeps coming. Hughes has only ridden him once before and came second toa very good Await the Dawn last year 12/1, I am hoping a more experienced and a better Jockey in Richard Hughes than Liam Jones (nothing against him, as I do like him as a jocky) but with the experience of Hughes, Harris Tweed will go off set a very furious pace and he will then go for home at the right time and not too early as I feel LJ has done fairly recently. But you can never rule this horse out as he always has big run just waiting under the saddle

Plus an obvious bet on Certify in the 14.55 @ 11/10 :D
 
2.20 Fanunaltar - 16/1 EW

Call me mad if you like but I think there is enough form in this horses book to suggest that he is no forlorn hope in this race, and we know he can run well in this grade and I really liked the way he won on his penultimate start. Apparently the ground was dreadful last time out and Wigham states you can ignore that run.

I think he is a fine EW bet when questions can be raised about most of the field.
 
The opener at Stratford looks a particularly weak affair and I am prepared to take a punt on the Charlie Longsden newcomer Tidal Way who has the highest flat rating of these and should have been well schooled for this.

In the 1.05 Ballybough Gorta could well go in again, looks by far the most progressive of these.

Best race of the day is the 1.35 where Agent Archie could be a snip off 133 having looked high class in 2 novice races last season before finishing 12th in the Supreme. The Aintree race could have been one too far for him and he should go well on reappearance here.

Probaly 3 favs so for an outsider dabble watch the sneaky fecker Sadik in the 2nd - Apache Dawn (if he runs) could surprise them all.
 
2.55 Newmarket: AMAZONAS 16/1 e.w (available at 30s for exchange players)

It is very much a speculative punt because Certify looks a really nice animal, but having followed Ollie Olga quite closely (backed her first two starts) I thought there was a stamina question over 1m whereas Amazonas looked like getting to her at the end of 7f when they met at Goodwood.

Form scrutinisers would be quick to point out that ROZ beat Amazonas easily but I suspect Amazonas was not at her best that day, particularly as she was keen and prominent early- unlike when held up in her best performances.

I think she'll see out the mile well, is bred to see out a mile and can perhaps give Certify something of a battle close home.
 
I'm going to go against Certify, I like OLLIE OLGA. Beat subsquent group 1 fillies winner Sky Lantern lto, step up in trip should suit.
 
The 4.00 is an absolute minefield. Good luck to anyone betting on that! They all have big questions to answer so ill be leaving it well alone!

The 2.20 is also a tough puzzle to solve but i quite like the look of Joviality. The form of the windsor forest looks strong and although Most Improved has won a G1 it was against 3 yo which dont seem to be the strongest bunch. If Joviality has recovered from her trip to america i think she has a big chance here

Agree about Thistle Bird. Think she will take all the beating here
 
Not racing related, but considering its such a huge event thought I'd pop up this

I've had a big, big bet on Garcia & Donald at evens in the Ryder Cup Foursomes today. In past Ryder Cups, Donald has won all 6 of his foursomes whilst Garcia has won 8 and drawn won of his 9 matches in this format. The pair also have a formidable 4-0 partnership in previous Ryder Cups. Evens looks massive.
 
4.35 Newmarket

Fair Trade 66/1

Extremely speculative bet but if he bounces back to form, and that's a big if, then 66s looks a massive price. He was on the verge of being very smart for Dominic Elsworth as a 3 year old as he was thought good enough to contest the 2,000 Guineas (finished a respectable midfield) and he was arguably unlucky not to land a Group 3 when denied a clear run at a crucial time when beaten a length. He had a big injury setback though and was off the track for 18 months before making his reappearance on stable debut for Hughie Morrison when sent off a 7/2 shot in a Listed contest at Kempton in March (Raymond Tooth remained owner). He pulled miles too hard that day but the fact he was sent off such a short price against the Leger winner of the previous year says a fair bit of what this horse used to be capable of. He's had 3 runs since then and he hasn't really been at his best in them either. At Royal Ascot he tried to lead from the front but quickly capitulated. At Haydock on heavy ground he was a small bit better but again he didn't show much at all and on his last start at York he tried to make all in the 18 runner field and pretty much died on his feet and fell back through the field rather quickly to be finished tailed off. Not really the best of reading I know but the handicapper has dropped him a massive 16lb from his last to a mark of 90 and that should surely help an awful lot. He's a horse who is often quite keen and with a strong pace guaranteed and in such a big field I think if he finds some cover it may help him an awful lot. He has to burden top weight of 9-10 but he has the physique of a horse that can carry a big weight and Classic Calori was beaten under the same welter burden last year by a very narrow margin which shows it can be done. In his 3 year old days, he ran well a few times at the course which is a bonus and George Baker is a good jockey booking having a 16% strike rate with Morrison on older horses. Hugely speculative bet but I think that's clearly taken into consideration with the price and although he could easily bomb out and finish nowhere if Hughie has gotten him back to his former self in the 76 days since his last race then he could pop up at a massive price.

In the same race, I thought Norse Blues 25/1 was a big eye catcher yesterday at the track where he wasn't given an overly hard time of things. His mark of 88 looks workable and is again worth an e/w bet in an ultra competitive field
 
Newmarket
1.15 Power Of Light 4/1
1.45 Thistle Bird 3/1
2.20 Most Improved 9/2
2.55 Certify 11/10
 
Oh, supercalifantefragilisticexpialidocious!
Even though the sound of it
Is something quite atrocious
If you say it loud enough
You'll always sound precocious
Supercalifantefragilisticexpialidocious!
 
3.25 Nwm

Seek Again


Been waiting for this one for months, before I even knew the name (had to ask PN in one of her threads a few months back). Don't know if fully tuned up but will either go in today or soon from what I've heard.
 
ROTO said:
Not racing related, but considering its such a huge event thought I'd pop up this

I've had a big, big bet on Garcia & Donald at evens in the Ryder Cup Foursomes today. In past Ryder Cups, Donald has won all 6 of his foursomes whilst Garcia has won 8 and drawn won of his 9 matches in this format. The pair also have a formidable 4-0 partnership in previous Ryder Cups. Evens looks massive.
Click to expand...

Good morning all... Hope we are all well for this fine friday...<ok>

Absolutely ROTO, my thoughts exactly... I also think that the 1st pairing of the Rory and G-Mac will be hard to stop and ive also doubled them two up...
 
Morning, crew. Nothing for me today but Mr Henderson, who hasn&#8217;t had a winner since 18 August, should oblige in the &#8216;lucky last&#8217; at the Bard&#8217;s place. Over the next few months though expect him to score as often as Lucas Poldolski, the Oxlade-Chamberlain boy and dear old Theo Walcott.

My main advice though is for LAYLA&#8217;S OASIS up at Chester tomorrow (2.50). The lovely Amy&#8217;s dad has just taken the horse out of a race at Haydock Park this afternoon as tomorrow has been earmarked as THE day given there is a lot more loot on offer. Take the hint and get on, people!

Have fun!
 
Morning all, Roto you have provided my e/w speculative bet today in your review of the 4:45 Newm. Classic Calori was the one I was looking at and your mention of him has made up my mind. Bet365 are paying 5 places so the 10/1 looks a good price.
 
Morning all

ill today. Went to see Frankie Boyle last night can't remember one of his jokes - possibly a good thing <laugh>


not bothering with a bet today as it looks very tricky. POWER OF LIGHT & CERTIFY the ones I am looking forward to watching.
 
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