Ayr has an absolute handicap feast with the Gold, Silver and Bronze Cups all on the same day. I think they are a lottery and has too many plots, so my tentative selections in a 50p trixie are: 1.45: BRONZE CUP: Parysian Pyramid- Being by Verglas you would expect there to be some level of form on soft ground- There is. Some excellent runs earlier this year on ground with cut including a 2L 4th of 16 to Ayr Gold Cup springer MAAREK. I think the horse has a super chance in these conditions and is very nicely handicapped- 9lb lower than that effort behind Maarek earlier this season and Jim Crowley booked. 2.20: SILVER CUP: Jedward 33/1 & Mass Rally 16/1- Both showing excellent form on this sort of surface. Mass Rally deserves some breaks, can travel into the right positions and that is crucial in these sort of races. Jedward is going to be a star for Kevin Ryan IMO and we have yet to see the best of this horse in the UK. 3.30 GOLD CUP: Lous The Pious 20/1 is at the right end of the weights and has good recent form to its name. Surely a danger. Still not exposed as a sprinter and potentially still on the upgrade. Ground of no concern- stamina can come into play.
Ayr Gold Cup Maarek 16/1 & Sholaan 16/1 (advised) I doubt its a surprise to many about how much I like Maarek and he's definitely my favourite horse in training at present. Its going to take an absolutely monumental effort to win this off a handicap mark of 114 but David Peter Nagle's tremendous 5 year old is a horse that I fully believe has what it takes to win this. Its very hard to believe that he was winning his first race in April of last year off a handicap mark of 69 but the improvement his small Co. Tipperary based trainer has found from him is a real testament to his training capabilities as he has gone on to land two Group 3s this year as well as an ultra competitive handicap at Newmarket. In my eyes he's definitely up to competing at the highest level on this sort of ground and I am very excited to see how far he can progress in the next year. As I said, its going to take a monumental effort to win this off a racing weight of 9-9 (including Mark Enright's claim) but he seems to excel under the burden of a big weight. In all his races since making his handicap debut, Maarek has had to carry 9-5 on 12 occasions and if excluding his 2nd last start where he wasn't himself then he has never been beaten more than 2.12L (never beaten more than 1L when not good ground), winning 5 times. Maarek comes here in tremendous form after winning a Group 3 under top weight at the Curragh 6 days ago and to be honest I was both surprised and delighted that he won. I really thought the drying Yielding ground would have been too quick for him but he scored in excellent fashion from the excellent Starspangledbanner and Fire Lily. Both trainer and jockey said afterwards that the ground was just about ok for him and I think that makes his victory even more impressive. Tomorrow he gets absolutely bottomless ground which he will absolutely love which is a huge advantage given that so many horses in the field will be inconvenienced by it. He's got a great draw in stall 13 which is bang in the middle and should allow him to go either side if one part of the track is drastically favoured. The talented Mark Enright has been booked for this solitary ride to come over from Ireland and although connections initially said last Sunday that they would give this contest a miss, I think the weather conditions and the fact he came out of that race so well have made them have a rethink. From a great draw, I think he's going to run an absolutely fantastic race and I'll be extremely surprised if he's out of the placings tomorrow but I really hope he can win this extremely competitive contest. 12/1 is the best price available now but he still looks well worth a bet at that price. The other horse I've gone for is William Haggas's 3 year old Sholaan who is again a horse I have been following for quite a while. This lightly raced son of Invincible Spirit has only had 7 starts in his career and although its going to be a big ask to land such a competitive event as his tender age I think he's got an excellent chance if - and its a big if - he is drawn on the right side. Stall 2 could prove absolutely ideal for this gelding or it could prove to be the worst spot on the track if a bias exists to horses drawn high but its a chance I'm willing to take. Before his breakthrough success at York two starts ago, he was clearly a temperamental and talented individual and I think three things have been the making of him: soft ground, blinkers and the drop back to 6f. It was very clear to me before sauntering to success in what looked a very competitive contest at York back in June that he had an action that would be suited by give underfoot and he absolutely relished the soft ground to run away with the 6f event off a mark of 87 in first time blinkers. He was raised 12lb to a mark of 99 for this victory and I think he performed as well as could be expected when finishing a 1.5L beaten 3rd on good ground at Windsor two weeks after his York success in a race that looks pretty decent. He's been upped another 2lb by the handicapper to a mark of 101 but I really expect to see considerable improvement again now he is back on testing ground and I expect him to run a big race. He hasn't been seen since that race at the end of June and I'm guessing he's been aimed at a tilt at this contest ever since. Although I'd prefer to have seen Liam Jones on board, Kelly Harrison is deputising and I expect instructions will be for her to bag the rail and lead from the front and if cutting through the ground like he did at York then he could prove to be very hard to peg back, although I hope Maarek is the one horse who does! 14s is the best price available now. I can see both horses running belters and will be playing the RFC.
Write ups for these two coming up for me as well. Put up Jedward at 40s in yesterdays Daily Thread and I echo your sentiments. I'd have been very confident if she had some sort of first time headgear on though!
The ground is gonna be a huge leveller for most of the GC field and Maarek relishes it so his weight wouldn't be as big a turn off as if say the ground was a little firmer .
If the ground wasn't like this he wouldn't be racing and he has time and time again put in excellent runs under big weights so I'm not one bit concerned.
Strange for me, 3 of my favourite sprint handicappers that I have followed all turn up for the 3 cup races on Gold Cup day. Ayr 1.45 Best Trip 22/1 Best Trip is a very fast horse, one of the fastest ive seen round Kempton and ive been surprised that he has been able to win 6f handicaps on soft ground. He lost his way early in the season usually going off far too fast early and I had long given up on him before he notched up 3 in a row but he has been consistent since then running well in some solid handicaps. Brian Ellison deserves a lot of credit for getting him back on track and seemingly teaching the horse that he doesn't have to go all out from the start, on his day he would be a very well handicapped horse off 77 if this was a handicap at Kempton but he has shown enough on turf recently to suggest he could run a race here. 2.20 Spinatrix 14/1 Spinatrix is a brilliant filly, I gave her a good write up at the start of the season when she ran off 80 first time out, shes now in here off 91 and while she has been beaten off 89 and 90 on her last two runs, she has went close and the form has worked out really well, she loves the track, the ground and im sure she will run a big race, she usually does. 3.30 Doc Hay 40/1 already advised As for the Doc, I just hope he runs a nice race, he can be a bit hit and miss, he will either run huge or be tailed off, he broke the track record in the Portland last week, is officially 2 pounds well in and looks to be hitting top form at the perfect time. This is going to be very hard to win and I dont think he will want to be getting as far back as he was at Doncaster last time as its hard to make it up in that ground, the ground might help him in that he will handle it better than most but it might also play against him by making it an out and out stamina test. I told a few, well over a year ago when he was rated 75 that I thought he was an Ayr Gold Cup horse so for him to actually turn up on the day reasonably fancied and being on e/w at 40s I couldnt ask for anymore than that, and the owner hasnt done too bad either picking him up for 7,600gns.
Ayr Bronze Cup Parisian Pyramid 40/1 The only horse I'm selecting from a high draw and if he wins it could kill off the chance off all my other selections but I think Parisian Pyramid is ridiculously overpriced. He looks extremely well handicapped on a mark of 82 given some of his efforts this year and last year. Last year, he put up a couple of excellent efforts off an 11lb higher mark when finishing a 1L beaten 3rd at Goodwood and a 0.5L beaten 2nd at York (good ground) whilst his best effort this year undoubtedly came off a 9lb higher mark when finishing a 2L beaten 4th behind Maarek on rain softened ground at Newmarket where he was 2nd home in his group. All those efforts were for Kevin Ryan and he joined current connections (Dr Marwan Koukash maintained ownership) in July and he has had 3 runs for Patrick Morris. On the face of things, he has been below par for his new yard but his last race tells a lot more stories than his finishing position of 6.75L beaten 11th of 19. The Ripon race last month went straight into my notebook as there was a massive bias between those who raced far side and stands side with those who raced in the former group having a clear advantage. Parisian Pyramid raced in the unfavoured stands side and although he finished 6th of 9 in that group he was eased when his chance had finished. Unsurprisingly, the results from the stand side have been much stronger than the bare form figures would suggest. The 2nd home from that group Ballista (7th overall) has won his next two starts very impressively including off a 9lb higher mark whilst the other horses in the stands side group have been running well of late and it definitely signalled a return to some modicum of form. On past form he's clearly on a more than competitive mark and I think its interesting that cheekpieces are applied for only the 3rd time in what will be his 49th race, with the last time being 11 months ago (ran well enough). Furthermore, Jim Crowley is an eye catching booking given that he is riding Dr Marwan Koukash's Our Jonathan who is favourite for the Ayr Gold Cup. Although there is an argument that he is better on a sounder surface, as Toppy said being by Verglas would indicate he could handle this softer surface and he did put up an excellent effort as Juvenile on heavy ground over tomorrows C+D so I think he'll be fine. If the draw doesn't kill his chances, I think 40/1 about a horse who is clearly well handicapped looks a silly price and if Jim Crowley sets his fractions right from the front then he could take a fair bit of pegging back. On another note in the race, I find it fascinating that Dale Swift isn't riding Cheveton who he partnered to Bronze and Silver cup victories in the past two years as he rides Colin Teague's New Leyf 25/1 who had an eye catching stable debut LTO. Tadgh O'Shea takes the ride on Cheveton and was on board LTO in what was his first start for the Price stable and I'd be very surprised if Dale Swift didn't have the choice to ride Cheveton (he wasn't at Ffos Las for Cheveton's last race). Small bet as he looks fairly treated and I find it very intriguing.
Ayr Silver Cup Jedward 40/1 advised Like Toppy, I think we've yet to see the best from this shambolically named horse (its a female!) and I think if they key to her is unlocked then this 5 year old could turn out to be a very good mare having recently joined Kevin Ryan. If first time headgear was on today I'd be very excited as she has a peculiar head carriage but nevertheless I think she's got more than enough ability to score off her current mark of 87, especially as she is returned to testing conditions which I think is undoubtedly her best surface. Once again, the draw could kill her chances before she runs a yard as she is drawn in stall 1 but at the price its definitely worth risking that she is on the right side of the track. Formerly with Charles O'Brien, she showed some good form over here when finishing 4th behind Maarek and a 1/2L behind subsequent Group 3 winner My Girl Anna off level weights in her last two starts over here. She initially joined Richard Fahey as a Dr Marwan Koukash purchase and she showed improved form to win off a mark of 80 at Newmarket on soft ground back in July in a race that is working out well before bettering that result 10 days later when running an absolute belter to beaten only 1L when finishing 4th on good ground at Ascot off her current mark of 87. That Class 2 handicap looks very strong with the winner going down by 2 very narrow margins when finishing 2nd on his only 2 starts including off an 8lb higher mark whilst the 2nd Mass Rally has come out and finished a narrowly beaten 2nd in another very hot contest at York off a 2lb higher mark. Furthermore, that rival reopposes tomorrow on 4lb worse terms yet is a 16/1 shot and I think Jedward is a better horse on this type of ground. In addition, the 6th Barnet Fair won NTO and tomorrows favourite for the Bronze Cup Jack Dexter finished back in 7th. That effort alone makes her look an absolutely silly price and thats not even taking into account that she is probably better in testing conditions. Her 2nd last start (and last for Fahey) came at Goodwood last month where she didn't run overly well but I think you have to forgive any horse a bad run at Goodwood. Very interestingly, Jedward has joined another very good stable in the shape of Kevin Ryan and I definitely think he is the sort of trainer that can get the best out of this relatively unexposed 5 year old. She's had one start for her new stable, running a decent enough nearly 5L beaten 3rd at Chester at the start of September. She was well supported that day before the off from 8s into 9/2 and although running ok I don't think Chester is a course that really suits her given that she was disappointing at that track on her two starts their for Fahey. One of Kevin Ryan's 4 runners in the race, I think the extremely good Shane Foley rates as an extremely interesting jockey booking in what is one of two rides for him on the card (Waffle being the other in the Gold Cup). Foley has been riding out of his skin at present and I've extremely buoyed by his booking for Jedward. If the draw doesn't kill her, then I think she is more than capable of making her mark felt off 87 and she is one of a few horses that will actually enjoy the testing conditions which is a clear bonus. If things pan out for her, I think the 40/1 I advised looks a fantastic price and under Shane Foley I hope she runs a very good race.
5.15 Ayr Xilerator 10/1 NAP Looks a very big price considering he bolted in by 5L in this race last year in similar conditions off only a 2lb lower mark and given that Dandy Nicholls targets this meeting then I think he could definitely have been targeted at this race for quite a while. His win last year off a mark of 89 was extremely impressive and he looked like a horse going places. However, that hasn't really materialised in his 4 starts this year as the handicapper has dropped him 7lb and as a result he looks well handicapped when comparing his current mark to that victory. He's been ok this year but he looked out of form in his two races prior to landing this contest last year so his form isn't much of a concern and the return to testing conditions (last 3 on good/good to firm) should definitely be to his advantage. Given his age, he is very unexposed for a 5 year old with only 13 starts to date and I definitely think he's got some improvement left in him (although he wouldn't need to improve from his win last year). For a horse that likes to make all, stall 8 isn't ideal but he is generally quick breaking from the stalls so I don't see it as much of a concern. Adrian Nicholls reunites last years successful partnership and if this has been his target and the same horse who won this last year shows up then 10s could be made to look a very silly price tomorrow.
3.10 Newbury Mister Music 8/1 If Champion Jockey chasing Richard Hughes doesn't have to come here for the Group 2 then I think it is very noticeable that his book of rides at Newbury must be very strong as he looks like he could have definitely had a few winners at Newmarket. Regardless, I think the 8/1 currently available about Mister Music is absolutely mad. I'll try keep this short enough but two starts back off his current mark he was one of the biggest eye catchers of the season at Goodwood over 1m when he was at the back of the field under Hughes waiting for a gap and when one came he blitzed past most of the field to finish a 2L beaten 3rd in a very hot looking handicap whose form has worked out very well. His only subsequent start came in a conditions race at Newmarket last month over 10f where he was set a rather tough task at the weights. He performed with great credit that day finishing a 2L beaten 3rd when he was interfered with at a crucial stage in the run in. He's returned to handicap company today where he will find it much easier and on the basis of his last two efforts he looks more than capable of scoring off his current mark of 100. Hughes returns to the saddle after his last effort and if getting luck in running in this 17 runner race then he could make his 8/1 price look a mockery at the end of the race tomorrow.
Ayr NON RUNNERS 13:45 7 Parisian Pyramid 14:20 1 Face The Problem 20 Capone 14:50 2 Faithfilly 15:30 12 Jonny Mudball 16:05 2 Shrewd 16:40 6 Ektihaam
Good luck to anyone playing in those nonsensical races at Ayr. Heritage handicap? Bookies benefit more like. 3 handicaps with 27 runners each? Could could run those races every week from now till kingdom come and never get the same results twice.
**** ALL for me today racing is too hard and I cba to study them big fields **** that . I am off too football at 12 anyways Tarla is interesting in the 4.10 at Listowel but probs be no price.
Agreed. Will watch Newbury when I get back from work. Always fun to have a 50p multiple on the Ayr races though. Roll on the Arc.
16-1 is a great price for the cheka, many of the trainers in this race would not even consider running their horse in the races that he has run creditibly in this year and last. Cheka Maarek Sholaan
Dr Irv and Miss Ferney willbe there or there abouts today at Catterick good hunting men, me im off t club footy and races, had two small luckys but its a raffle out there today get in the Boro about time stay frosty
Today is one of those days in which i throw away good money won through being selective on races that should be well and truely left alone, can't resist the challenge unfortunately. Will be having small stakes on a few but nly one main bet today. Best Bet Newbury 3.45 Swiss Spirit 6-1 Other selections Ayr 1.45 Cheverton 6-1 3.30 The Checka & Sholaan 16-1 both Newbury 3.10 Kirthill Good luck all today
I have been told by an old racing friend that the horse Swiss Spirit is fancied by the yard in the 3.45 today. I have had a small bet on it, along with Coolminx (1.45), Highland Colori (2.20) and Sholaan (3.30). If more than one of those win I will be a very happy chap.
