Sat 15th September (St.Leger Day) Daily Thread

2.25 TORONADO 9/4 The most exciting High Chapparal colt I remember eeing as a juvenil and I am certain he is Guineas bound. I think he will take all the beating today. Potentially very exciting.


3.40 MICHELANGELO 12/1

Camelot potentially sets a tall, tall standard but the sticky ground win in Ireland was not his best and made you wonder if stronger finishing horses than Born To Sea might give him a harder race than anticipated here.

It is always a worry when Buick chooses the other one, but his form is only marginally ahead of Michelangelo, on a line through Encke and Noble Mission.

Im firmly of the opinion that Michelangelo hated Goodwood and I think his two best performances were away from that track. He struggled when heavily backed on 2nd start and only started motoring late on. He is crying out for this sort of trip so long as Frankie settles him into a rhythm. I also think that any give in the ground will be the absolute ideal for him but Doncaster seems like it is good ground despite a bit of the top being kicked up, and hence e/w playing seems more sensible.

I had earmarked him for this race ever sincr his neck third behind Noble Mission and Mariners Cross on debut and I put a line through Goodwood because there is no way this horse has not improved past those and the tough races at Goodwood will be the making of him over todays stamina trip.

Oppose Buick at your peril but I think he is on the wrong one and will be picked off late on by Frankie, and also by Camelot. He will ride prominently so I think they will read him better in behind this year.

 

Can Camelot capture a place in racing history?

I think that John Gosden will make this a stern test of stamina. Dartford will be out the gate like a scolded cat and Thought Worthy will be close up behind him, ridden like a definite stayer. There is no point riding like your horse will not get home. There must be a good chance that Michelangelo will try to track the favourite.

Main Sequence has not lived up to the expectation of his second at Epsom and is easily passed over. Although Sir Henry Cecil has five St Legers to his name, Thomas Chippendale has disappointed since Royal Ascot and is hard to fancy, along with nearly horse Encke. It is hard to assess Ursa Major but the vibes from Ireland seem positive enough.

By ten to four we could be celebrating an O’Brien Classic clean sweep or the trainer will be telling us to “listen” while he apologises for the horse being race rusty and because he did not put enough work into him. That is not the scenario that I hope we see but there is no value betting against an odds-on shot that you expect to win. I am not tempted by the betting-without-the-favourite market.

The Champagne Stakes looks like a match between Dundonnell and Toronado and having witnessed both winning, preference is definitely for the former, who looks an excellent Guineas prospect and will collect this at short odds on his way to Group 1 glory.

There are two or three running today that owe me money but I expect that I will find reasons not to try and get it back on any of them – so watch Libranno bolt up at a fancy price.

 

Billy Hills are offering evens against Camelot for 5000 punters after 10.00am. you can only get on for £25, but even so isn't this the level stakes bet of the century?

 

Ladbrokes have an offer on as well

Bet 20quid on Camelot to win at 2/5. If you win you get your 28quid
If you lose you get your 20quid back in the form of a free bet

 

Spirit Son will not race again according to RP

 

Pleased to see Starspangledbanner back out today.

 

Me too, but buggered if I know what to make of him this time around.

 

Just have to hope he's come on a hell of a lot for his latest run.

 

Libranno strikes me as overpriced at 12s today. I know Strong Suit is the stables number 1 (and rightly so) but Libranno has had 3 runs over 7f this season. Forget his latest, I'll forgive him it, and you have a Group 3 Criterion Stakes win ahead of Majestic Myles and Edinburgh Knight and a 2nd to subsequent Group 1 winner Chachamaidee who I think is a better horse over 7f as well. In an 8 runner race I think 12/1 is pretty good going especially with Fallon on board who, whatever you think of his, is one of the top jockeys.

 

Yielding now, according to ATR and RP. He has run once on yielding but last night it was described as yielding to soft. I suppose, being by NA, he could be even better on soft. Still a slight risk for me. I will just watch and hope he wins.

 

£1.50 e/w yankiee for me today. as follows
16:30 Chester= My Single Malt -7/1
16:55 Newcastle= Arley Hall -7/1
14:10 Chester= Corporal Maddox -9/1
16:05 Bath= El Dececy - 11/1
total stake £33
all placed- £326 return
all win- fckin 3month club note

 

The more i look at Strong Suits races from last year the more confident i become he'll win today, especally watch the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood where Libranno also ran and SS just sat on his hind quarters tracking him to the 2 pole swinging on the bridle before unleashing a very good turn of foot, i'm sure he'll be looking to do more or less the same today, he needs cover and a good gallop. I know last year is not this year but as stick and others agree his campaign has to be left desired of what connections actually wanted for the horse and i don't think that's turned him into a bad horse,he's just been aimed at races that werent't to suit him, today will and he will win.

 

15:40 Doncaster - Thought Worthy

(Late foal. Will certainly stay, but whether he's fast enough is another matter

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).

 

I really can't have Strong Suit in the Park Stakes, despite the return to 7f. I think he's become a difficult horse to win with, and connections don't have any explanation for a poor run last time when he didn't lack early pace over 6f, he just melted away like summer snow.

I'll be taking him on with longshot Penitent who looks massively overpriced if he can regain the progressive form he showed early in the season. His two recent flops came in France and Ireland, so it could just be that he doesn't travel.

 

I wish I understood that Mick. The only bit I understood was that I could lay Main Sequence to place at 5/4 on Betfair and back him to place at 9/4. So that's a potential doubling of your money with no risk attached.

 

Has anyone else noticed that aiden o'brien has not declared any of his runners at longchamp tomorrow, seems a little strange to me.

 

Dettori mugging off punters again. Someone tell me why he doesn't deserve a ban for that disgusting ride on Invisible Man.

 

You do wonder at times if when a trainer has 2 in the same race are they plotting a coup but watching that race 2-3 furlongs out invisible man was cantering and you would have staked your house on it hosing up I wonder what price it traded in-running....terrible ride tho I must agree RV!!