OPTA STATS SAY QPR ARE GOING DOWN Betfair: 22 August 2012 Reproduced with permission from betting.betfair.com. (c) The Sporting Exchange Limited. More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebookShare on myspaceShare on googleShare on twitter QPR fans look away now. Andrew Atherley has done some number crunching and the stats suggest that QPR will have a big task on their hands this season if they want to remain in the Premier League... The 5-0 wins of Fulham and Swansea on the opening day of the Premier League season sent reverberations through the Relegation market as Betfair punters quickly reassessed their views on the always competitive battle for survival. It is rarely advisable to base betting decisions on one match, but in QPR's case the market has moved more into line with reality after their humbling at home by Swansea and history points to them remaining in the thick of the relegation battle for the rest of the season. Two factors appear to have influenced QPR's opening odds of 7.2 in the relegation market: Mark Hughes's standing as a manager and the spending power afforded to him by owner Tony Fernandes. But, while Hughes has the admirable record of never having finished outside the top 10 in five full seasons as a Premier League manager, this appears to be his toughest task yet. QPR finished just one place above the relegation zone last season, surviving by a point on a low total of 37 points, and Hughes did not exact the kind of improvement he had as a firefighter in his first club job at Blackburn. He took something from two-thirds of his matches in his first part-season at Blackburn, giving him a solid base, but at QPR last season he took something from less than half of his games. Hughes has to find a lot of improvement quickly and history suggests it will be extremely difficult. QPR are the seventh promoted side to make it to a second season only after being among the worst three survivors, and the previous six all went backwards the next season. The three that had finished 17th were all relegated and overall, in Premier League history, the worst survivor from the previous season has been relegated nine times out of 20 (45%). A heavy defeat at home, like QPR suffered against Swansea, is another bad sign. Of the 31 teams beaten by five goals or more at home in the Premier League, 17 (55%) have been relegated. Many of those defeats were against elite teams who finished in the top six, but four of the six that suffered a heavy loss against a lower-placed side were relegated (67%). Those figures indicate QPR remain too big for relegation at 4.8 and, even if Hughes does work his magic again, there should be trading possibilities along the way.
Oh yes and all the promoted sides will stay up and us,Norwich and Swans for the drop? They are deluded. Crap artical
Why does this **** make it on here What does it serve? kiwi off to bed early please As for Stato I would rip his ****ing ear off and eat it What sort of **** can be bother to run analysis over one match and then equate that to the remaining 37 games Keep this as I want this **** to apologise ... Never thought I could be upstaged by writing so much dross Bhhjhhhvfvbhjjjkk!!!!!!!
Keep your hair on DT, Statto had us in their bottom three all last season even when we were mid-table...
7/2 on us getting relegated. Might be worth a bet just in case, could ease the pain if the worse was to happen. Hughes at 9/1 looks better value: www.thesackrace.com
One of the favourites for the drop after 1 game? ha ha ha ha I guess that means Man Utd are going for a bottom half finish as they lost to Everton as well?
Great news for QPR despite loss: Hughes will be looking for significant improvement and history suggests he will be in the EPL for the 2013/2014 season. QPR are the seventh promoted side to make it to a second season only after being among the worst three survivors. Overall, in Premier League history, the worst survivors from the previous season have retained their position in the EPL 11 times out of 20 (55%). Good news for QPR. A heavy defeat at home, like QPR suffered against Swansea, is another sign of no significance. Of the 31 teams beaten by five goals or more at home in the Premier League, 45% have remained in the EPL at the end of the season. However a warning does remain for the board of QPR as four out of six who suffered a heavy loss against a lower-placed side were relegated (67%). No worries then!!!!
Swansea were only lower placed than us was because Swansea starts with an 'S' and we start with an effin' 'Q'. Seeing as Swansea are now a higher plced side, does that reduce the chance to two in six?
To everyone I accused of overreacting after Swansea, I'm sorry. This is much worse - it says we're odd on to go down and then says the odds favour us to stay up (too big for relegation). "It is rarely advisable to base betting decisions on one match, but in QPR's case the market has moved more into line with reality after their humbling at home by Swansea and history points to them remaining in the thick of the relegation battle for the rest of the season." Yes it isn't advisadble but they managed to stretch an article out of it. It isn't advisable but they somehow managed to deduce their idea of "reality" too. "Of the 31 teams beaten by five goals or more at home in the Premier League, 17 (55%) have been relegated." - did they show this to Fergie last year? They may get it right but that wouldn't be on the strength of re-evaluating now. We each have our pre-conceived ideas of the season - theirs obviously anti-QPR, mine obviously (and possible excessively) pro-QPR and nothing has changed in either respect from the first game. Silly. Just silly.
The stats are historical, but they don't take account of our history. We all know the reasons we scraped through last season, and why there were good reasons to be optimistic before last Saturday. Judging by all the transfer speculation this week, I'm not even sure MH was that disappointed with 0-5. its persuaded Mittal to open his wallet. Bet MH makes sure the owners read these stats too, might persaude them to buy more players! If you look at the whole story (as opposed to these stats) there's no way we should go down.
