This is supposed to be the month where Ferrari make a final decision on whether to replace Massa or not. So there's no better time to start a poll! A number of drivers could realistically replace him: Perez - After Monaco, Montezemolo described him as "one of the potential best young drivers for the future" but also said "I need more experience and more results". Since then he has finished in the top 10 three times out of the last five races, including a podium. He may not have the experience but he's been more consistent than Massa and has nearly double Massa's points. Problem is this might not be enough to convince the boss... Hulkenburg - He's a young driver with consistency and a lot of potential. He would probably be willing to accept a one year deal because it could be the only chance he gets to drive a competitive car.While he could end up being a star of the future, he might instead be way out of his depth and end up like the Kovalainen of 2008/2009. Montezemolo's comment about young drivers could prevent Ferrari taking a gamble on him. Di Resta - Still not that experienced but very consistent, although he may not be fast enough to race at the front (was shown up by Sutil in the second half of last year, and now the same thing is happening with Hulkenburg). If he ends up being six tenths behind Alonso all the time, how is he any better than Massa? Is it a risk worth taking? Kovalainen - He failed miserably at McLaren but has improved a lot as a driver since then. His qualifying speed is great but his race pace hasn't been amazing this year. Is he good enough to get back to the top? Hamilton - If Hamilton wants a Red Bull seat he has to wait until 2014 when Vettel leaves - so he needs a one year deal now. I doubt Ron agree to such a deal, but it's exactly what Ferrari want. Also he could probably get a much better deal with Ferrari - they'll pay him more and won't steal his trophies. Depends on how keen Ferrari are on bringing in someone like Hamilton. If they trust their ability to successfully manage the drivers... Alternatively they could just keep Massa. His overall race pace since Monaco hasn't been that far from Alonso's. Unfortunately though, he still makes silly mistakes and unlike Alonso, fails to make progress in the race following a poor qualifying. Who do you think will replace Massa? Will he even be replaced?
Massa. I think they're waiting on Vettel for 2014. Then Red Bull would be stupid to let Perez "hanging" as they say. Obviously, I want it to be Perez but I dont think it will be sadly.
That's a good shout, didn't think of Perez replacing Seb at RBR but nowadays it looks possible as the kid wants to join a top team next year and I don't think he will wait for Alonso to maybe retire around 2016 even if he actually did! Anyway I'm going to be controversial and say Seb will be at Ferrari next season since Dietrich has made it well known he would not stand in his way if he wanted to join Ferrari when a seat became available and that they would give their best to try and make him stay a bit longer. His words: "As long as Sebastian is comfortable with us and has a winning car, he will probably not really think about going elsewhere. If he tells us one day he wants to go to Ferrari or Mercedes, we would have to understand. There are more mothers with beautiful daughters -- we would let him go."
Interesting points made so far, because i actually think that Ferrari do not have the guts to sign Vettel, I would love to see him and Alonso in the same team but i think they will play it safe and sign Perez or Kovalainen and keep the status quo at Ferrari. Also Alonso could help Perez learn how to become a top driver at the front of the field, thus he could be the no2 and slowly be built up to be Alonso's successor. Traditionally Ferrari have not had two champion drivers in the same team and I cannot see it changing now especially with Alonso there
I think its either Perez or Massa. Depending on whether the Vettel 2014 rumors are true. The rest either dont want it or have no chance.
I just don't see how Vettel could go to Ferrari while Alonso is still there. Vettel would surely only go there if he was on equal footing, so unless Ferrari are planning on changing the way their team operates, then I just can't see how it would work out. Another thing that confuses me about that is that it seems to make little sense from either side. Vettel could lead RBR to greatness, he's comfortable in the team and he has Newey cars at his disposal. (and potentially Newey howlers I suppose.) And from Ferrari's side of things, I don't understand why they'd risk unsettling Alonso. Both are in great positions... why upset the apple cart and all that?
I can't see Ferrari signing Vettel unless Newey goes there as well. That said, the cynical part of me thinks that Vettel is just keeping Red Bull on tenterhooks and letting them know that a renewed deal is not a formality and that there's no actual chance of him going to Ferrari. Wouldn't it be awesome though?
I think Ferrari have tried their hand and getting Newey in the past... I think Newey wanted to remain in the UK and was not interested in relocating. If that's the case then I don't see Newey having a change of heart on that. Newey and the resources of Ferrari could be quite scary.
From Ferrari's (and Alonso's) point of view, they probably see Vettel as less of a threat if they split him from Red Bull, especially if Hamilton gets tied down to a long term contract with McLaren. Red Bull have to be considered the best team in the sport right now, the only way Ferrari can really damage them is by luring away their best driver.
I'm thinking Massa will be kept on, whilst they either sign Vettel in 2014, or wait for Kubica to return to action, which should happen within a year considering he seems to be making good progress.
Massa being kept on is beginning to make sense now that the car's come to him and there's no point putting Perez in the car for just the one year. If they're waiting for Kubica - which is, admittedly, long-rumoured - that's a lot of risks to be taking. Is he going to be fully recovered by 2014? Is he going to be able to demonstrate the same pace as he did in 2008 and 2010? Will he get along with Alonso? Surely he's far too risky for Ferrari to even consider without him having a run in a midfield team first.
Fine, maybe that's less of a risk, albeit friendly team-mates quickly turn into unfriendly team-mates in F1. The major point was that waiting around for Kubica is making an awful lot of assumptions.
Thing with Massa is that he's so inconsistent and usually ends up with nothing on Sunday despite having the pace to finish with good points. He has been close to Alonso's pace at every race since Monaco but in those six races only twice he's finished with good results. Having outright speed is one thing but it means nothing if you can't get the results. Massa has done nothing since 2010 to convince the team that he can put together a run of stong results. Massa's inability to take points away from Ferrari's rivals in 2010 cost Alonso the WDC, and I think Alonso knows this. That's why I'm confident Massa will go. Think about this: Will Ferrari and Alonso be thinking "We should keep Massa, it's only one more year" or will they be thinking "One more year with Massa could mean one more year without the WDC"? They should sign Perez but I get the feeling they'll bring him in for 2015 (if things don't work out with Vettel) or 2017 (when Alonso retires). If they don't sign Perez they I hope they sign Hamilton, because he's the best driver on the market and will, at worst, be a lot closer to Alonso's pace than Massa was. Ferrari need someone who doesn't lack outright speed - Hamilton is the only one who can guarantee this. Would also be fun to see them in same team again
I can see a Massa/Perez swap being done. Ferrari have nothing to gain from keeping Massa if they want a shot at the WCC. They need consistent drivers and one who can at least have enough speed to shadow Alonso and maybe push him along a bit. Alonso/Massa is like Hamilton/Kovi from 2008. One driver is so far ahead of the other they have to take on their rivals themselves as they have no backup from the other driver. If Alonso wins the 2012 WDC that is what will make it even more impressive as he would have fended off McLaren/Red Bull/Lotus effectively on his own.
