I hate these normally, but I'm more optimistic than ever this year. I think a lot of you are aware that I have some slightly unusual views, but here they are anyway. Manchester City They are a lot more fragile than most people will have you believe. They are hugely dependent on Kompany and Yaya Toure, who must recreate last year's form for City to do well. They will be fortified with greater self belief this year, but it remains to be seen if the players are still hungry after sating their appetite for a trophy last year. They may focus on the CL this year and let someone sneak in and steal their title away. They are still a good team, maybe even THE team to beat, but strangely, very thin at the back and in midfield. No signings to talk about yet. Generally champions don't do well the year after. Retaining is surprisingly difficult, although people tend to predict clubs to retain their title often. Prediction - 2nd Manchester United Kagawa is a good signing, but he can't replace Carrick, Giggs and Scholes all by himself. They still haven't found a decent pair to replace Vidic and Ferdinand, or find a decent partner for Rooney. SAF works miracles but even he needs water to turn into wine. Not only that, but Evra is starting to lose a yard or two as well. I don't think the money is there to rebuild completely and while I think SAF has the class to keep them in the top 4, if injuries and luck go against him, this could be an ugly season for United. Prediction - 4th Chelsea Well they have been spending again. They definitely don't think FFP is going to mean much. A lot is going to depend on how well RDM has picked his men, or did Abramovich do the picking, who knows? In any case, they seem to have gone for all light skillful types, which might be excellent synergy, or leave them all looking at each other when it is time to defend. Similar to Manchester United, they have to try and replace Lampard, Terry and Drogba, or drag another year out of them (not Drogba of course). Despite their active off-season they still have a few gaps in the side, and an inexperienced manager. They definitely need a fast start. If they lose a few early, RDM is going to get the sack and the whole thing could get ugly fast. Prediction - 3rd Arsenal When figuring out Arsenal, you always have to take into account the one or two players that are going to suddenly put in a 'season of a lifetime' performance. Unfortunately, there will always then be six players that leave, get a season-long injury, or inexplicably lose form as well. This year Wenger and the club seem to have a different attitude, which makes RVP's statements and actions all the more mystifying. I don't think I have any fear that the Arsenal forwards are going to score goals. Giroud and Podolski have a good pedigree and I am sure that if Manchester United had signed either, they would be already crowned champions by most of the press. The midfield seems to be stacked with talent and there are too many decent players in there for there not to be 3 of them that will have a good season. As always, it will come down to the defence, and if the new assistant manager, Steve Bould, can sort them out, but I think that the Arsenal are going to be a huge surprise to everyone this year. Prediction - 1st Spurs Well, this is going to be similar to Arsenal of days gone by, in a way. They are always going to be able to score goals, but their defence is a disaster. Vertonghen is coming in as the savior, but it is asking a lot for him to come straight in from the Eredivisie and immediately dominate in the premier league. Gallas is long past his sell by date, and King has retired. Spurs looked very shaky without King last year, and Dawson played only 6 games in the PL (and one brief sub's appearance), only two of which resulted in victories. Bassong is now 8 losses out of 8 in his last 8 premiership games, so he isn't the answer either. AVB hasn't impressed anyone with his defensive organization skills, from his time with Chelsea, so there is real doubt he will be able to rebuild the defence. On the upside, they are strong at full back on both sides and any team that can leave Defoe on the bench so much (or sell him) is strong up front, but if they start to suffer any injury list at all, they could be in for a tough season. Oh yes, and they need a goalkeeper, if Friedel plays any longer he is going to start having senior moments. Prediction - Mid-table Liverpool These guys really should do better. Am I the only one that thought England got lucky getting Roy and Liverpool picked the wrong man? Dalglish must be Wenger's hero. He proved that spending a gazillion pounds doesn't necessarily buy you success. Once he spent all that money, including some fairly large gambles, the players all let him down terribly. He had no choice but to play them. On the upside, Liverpool have some good young players and a new manager, who favours a game that seems better suited to the team, with a few notable exceptions (Carroll sit down at the back - oh you are sitting down). I still think they have too many runners and not enough creators, but if Adams and the young lads can get it together, these guys may surprise people. Defensively they are OK, certainly in better shape than many. Prediction - 5th Newcastle It is very difficult to talk about Newcastle, but nice to see the Toon army something other than despondent at the end of the season. The thing that strikes me most is that they have a very, very, thin squad. They got off to a great start and then Steven Taylor got injured. Their defence then became a shambles. They seem to be solid against any team outside the top 6 (more solid than some of the top 6 in fact), but they don't seem to have the beating of the real title contenders. So either Pardew is a tactical genius, or they need to find some self-belief from somewhere. I think they will do well, but they seem to be missing a little bit of class in the middle of the field to unlock the top defences, or break into the top 4. Prediction - Mid-table Everton David Moyes the media darling. The shine is coming off a little. If Newcastle are thin though, then Everton are positively anorexic. I think this could be the year the wheels come off. Playing Everton is one where you just hope you catch them when they are tired or have injuries. Their first 11 can beat anyone, but one or two injuries later they can't beat anyone. It is really difficult to see where the goals are going to come from this year, but they will still pull off an upset or six. Prediction - Mid-table Aston Villa Well, they have money. And they have a new manager; again. They should be right up there with Spurs and Newcastle, but they aren't; again. Why not? I haven't got a clue. The team seem talented, they have depth, a lot of them have great individual games and they have a good youth team. It should be great, but it isn't. I think they need to have a manager who can pull them together as a team and make them work for each other. At the moment all of them seem to be trying to play for themselves and attract a team to buy them out of purgatory. Lambert may be able to do that, he revived a dead and buried Norwich team that had sunk as low as it could go (nearly). I think they might do well this year. Prediction - 6th Sunderland I have to say, that Sunderland surprised me last year. They finished higher than I thought they would. I think their defence is suspect, they are a little short of strikers and their midfield overcomes their lack of flair by working their socks off. Credit it to them, that midfield worked hard enough to save the team last year, which is commendable. Not sure if it is going to be enough this year. I think they may be headed for the relegation battle. Can't say I am certain though, they have great support and team passion, but if they lose morale, they might be in trouble. Prediction - Relegation battle
Fulham I think Fulham will do OK. They seem to know what they are doing. I don't think they have a real shot at the top 4, but they remain comfortably out of the relegation fight each year. They are fairly solid all-round without having those 2 or 3 players that would lift them into a Champions League spot. They seem to realize this and are at least trying to find a few young players that may develop into those future stars. They will have to hurry up; Hangeland and Dempsey are running out of time. Prediction - Mid-Table West Brom So a first time manager Steve Clark and a squad of players that has many names that you recognize as potential stars that didn't fulfil their promise. That said, the defence and midfield seem pretty solid. The real problem is up front where they don't have a prolific striker. Odemwingie led with 11 but that isn't enough. It could be a baptism of fire for the manager and a relegation battle. Prediction - Relegation Battle Queens Park Rangers The team everyone loved to hate last year, but for many that is simply the team Joey Barton plays for. They seem to be getting rid of him for this year, and signing a few new players. The average age of the players they have brought in is 28, so this is a fairly short term policy. I think QPR are going to struggle again though despite the experience. They have a very high average age of 29, and I am not a Mark Hughes fan. They may survive again, but if they do, it will be a triumph for old-timers everywhere. Prediction - Relegation Battle Wigan There are a lot of Wigan players in the last year of their contract. Most of them are not a problem, but one is Victor Moses, whose contribution at the end of last season probably kept Wigan up. I think their manager is great, but the stress year after year must be killing him. I think he should keep his cholesterol low this year as well, because they will be in for a fight to survive again. Martinez has to find the formula a little quicker this year; having said that, they could just as easily get a good run at the start and coast home. Prediction - Relegation Battle Norwich Well, how much of their success was due to the manager? A lot I think. They over-achieved last year and their squad value is the lowest in the premiership apart from the promoted teams. That is also based on a fairly large squad. Chris Hughton is well respected as a nice guy, but Pardew got a lot more out of the Newcastle squad then he did. Grant Holt did a lot for them last year, but even if he stays, he is now 31 and may be on the decline. I predict a very tough year. Prediction - Relegated Stoke Another team that has an aging squad, an aging style of play and not much upside to them. The cracks in the Stoke side started showing last year, and I am not sure that they have the money to buy their way up. I am just not convinced by a Huth-Shawcross partnership at the back, and Higgenbotham or Upson are not getting any younger. Up front they are struggling as well, so I am going to suggest that Pulis loses the plot this year. I think the game has moved on without him and he is going to start losing to teams at the bottom of the table, playing a more modern game. He is a master of the 4-4-2, but that formation is now not the formula for success that it used to be. Prediction - Relegated Swansea Another side that did really well last year, but that are now losing their manager. This time though a managerial pick that might turn out to be as much genius, as the one that brought Arsene Wenger to the premier league. They picked a manager whose style fitted the team and who has some experience at working a lower-valued team into a good position. They have also picked up three very interesting players. These guys will be pushing for Europe this year, in my opinion. They may have problems going to Stoke and a purposely dug up pitch, but they will get some good results and be fun to watch. Prediction - Mid-table West Ham United The promoted teams mostly did well last year and I think they will do OK this year. Big Sam is back, and he has been picking up players, 5 so far. They had a pretty good run last year, and I just think their manager has enough experience and the resources to keep them out of danger. They still need to find another centre-back from somewhere, but they are deep at striker and elsewhere. I'm really going on a general view that the Championship is stronger than the bottom of the Premiership, but I think they will have a good year. Prediction - Mid-table Southampton There is always one team that comes up and doesn't stick and I am going to pick Southampton as that team, based on the inexperience of the manager and the fact that they are so young. I think they have a great program, but there are too many players that might not have the quality to play at the very highest level. So the answer is? Spend 7 million on a 23 year old striker that has never played in the top division. It really depends how well these players adapt, but I think the step up might be too much for them collectively. If they do go down, they might bounce back and stick next time, but I think they over-achieved last year. Prediction - Relegated Reading So, very similar to Southampton, except the manager is a little more world travelled, a little less inclined to a 4-4-2 and seems to be a little smarter in the transfer market. Absolutely the lowest value team in the Premier League, but they have some really intriguing players. They will need Jem Karacan back fit, and might need another player or two, but this is my surprise pick to stay up. They won the league after a lousy start, and were able to lose the last game, so they were clearly the best team in the Championship last year. I don't think you can bet against them. Prediction - Relegation Battle
I don't see us being anywhere near to challenging for the league, no Sagna for a few months, no Wilshere until october at the earliest, a shaky defence, unproven strikers, Ramsey at CAM, Song repeatedly wandering off etc. We can get 4th at best iMO, It's a straight fight between Citeh and Chelsea for the league, Man U a safe 3rd, and us and Liverpool battling over 4th. Spurs down to midtable.
Ah you've fallen into the trap of predicting Arsenal 1st. I do the same thing every year. This year I'm changing, we'll finish 4th behind Chelsea and the two Mancs. On that basis we may well win it lol..
I've consulted my crystal ball, checked the stars, analysed statistics til I am red in the face, but most of all I am going with muy gut. I just feel there is something going on at Arsenal this year.
I predict we will finish 3rd again this season. I also predict that the same fans will be whinging about it again.
Absolutely no chance of Arsenal finishing ahead of City, United AND Chelsea. The line 'City are light in midfield' is simply bonkers.
If Arsenal sign Carzorla and Nuri Sahin I believe we can win the league. (regardless of the RVP situation) BUT that's still a big IF. (many sources are saying we are in fact still after both) 1.Arsenal 2.Man united 3 Man City 4.Chelsea Carzorla is versatile quick and technically superb. He could play a wide range of roles for us and will give us a little more experience. alsdo with over 40 caps for Spain the guy knows what it takes to win things. Sahin was the best player in the Bundeleague 2 Seasons ago. He's a natural playmaker with the ability speed up or slow down the game. He is having to compete with Kaka and Ozil for a starting place in the Real line up but at only 22 its clear the guy has TOP CLASS ability.. If not then I'm going for 2nd-3rd. 1.Man united 2 Man City 3.Arsenal 4.Chelsea
1.ManCity 2.Chelsea 3.ManU 4.Arsenal 5.Liverpool 6.Spurs Why Arsenal is 4th: with Cazorla we will replace some of our lost creative edge, but with yet unproven new attacking line and shaky defence it will be difficult to compete with top 3. Chelsea though can finish 1st, they may still add some more good players.
Unproven doesnt have to mean 'worse'. Our midfield will certainly be better with Carzorla possibly Sahin and the return of Wilshere. And I see No reason to think that Pod and Giroud cant make up for RVP goals.
I think you're vastly overestimating Aston Villa. Lambert seems to be a good manager, but the Villa squad is not well balanced. It will take a few years to turn around the disaster they've been since O'Neill's last season. They also don't have any money. Everything else seems fine, although defining 7th as mid-table (Spurs/Newcastle/Everton could all realistically come 7th) is just going to bait the fans of certain clubs!
A fan is someone who believes in their team no matter what, beyond all reality and common sense, who thinks their club will win each year til it becomes a mathematical impossibility... And some of you have that in the bucket-load you crackpots. But seriously, good read. As an impartial observer, I have to say Arsenal seem to be in constant transition, rather than building towards a specific objective. Arsenal winning the league would be an incredible achievement, even if Van Persie stayed and enjoyed even better form . You are probably correct in saying we'll be mid-table. I'd personally be delighted with 7th-10th, if we managed to have a decent run in a cup competition for once.
