A couple that I like tomorrow, Ascot 3.30 Beatrice Aurore 11/4 Drop in to this grade should see her go close Chepstow 8.20 Carmen`s Concerto 7/1 Handicap debut for A Balding
I like beatrice aurore tomorrow as well, just slightly worried about pimpernel given the form godolphin are in at the moment! It has been very profitable recently backing the bin suroor 3 year olds especially those having their first runs of the season. Unfortunately i cant find any racing tomorrow though!
Agree Beatrice Aurore but personally would have been happier over 9/10f. But with Buick aboard - what a top jockey.
One I fancy tomorrow is an SMS horse LEO LUNA in the 7:40 at Newmarket. Backed into joint favouritism on debut lto, slow away and green early on but ran on well last couple of furlongs, step up in trip should suit and should go better with that run under his belt. This a weaker race in my opinion. Out of Galileo and Eva Luna. Half brother to Frankel, Galileo's Choice and Sea Moon. If anywhere near forecast price of 10/1 I will be very happy.
19.30 York- Emirates Queen- 6/1 e/w Having a small punt on her, as she is in my tracker. She is a beautifully bred filly half sister to Dubawi. Who is taking a huge step up in class, she broke her maiden tag with still petrol in the tank and is taking everything in her stride. This may be a little step to far to quickly at the moment but am willing to take a chance, the other one I was looking at was Momentary. Has beaten english and irish oaks filly Shirocco star, she has also beaten John Gosdens talented filly starscope and although was disappointing at royal ascot lto she has her excuses and this is a step down in class, is massivly unexposed so i will prbably end up having a small saver on her
16.40 Ascot- Harjas- 9/4 Won her 1st two starts of the year,and altho lost at newbury in may, she did improve during the race depsite tasting defeat and lto she didnt have things his own way. This is a drop down in class from his Newbury race back in may and should take all the beating tomorrow
Cant argue with the Beatrice Aurore credentials but I love the Duntle form line and that gives Pimpernel a big chance too Good luck to you all
Popped on this evening to give you this but Jeff has beaten me to it, and I couldn't have summarised it better. All I'll say was is that it was very much an educational ride on debut and there was a LOT to like about the way this one shaped. One to keep track of as it develops its career. Should improve today, but will be even better in the future
4.05 Ascot Kangaroo Court 12/1 NAP Am I missing something or is this the most ridiculously overpriced horse I've ever come across? I cannot fathom why he is 12/1 and I've had a big e/w as I'll be very surprised if he is out of the first three. A very talented chaser on his day reaching a peak rating of 142, Emma Lavelle's 8 year old gelding has only recently begun his flat career and has started rather promisingly landing 2 of his first 4 starts in this sphere. He made his debut on the AW at Lingfield in January over 12f and he won very impressively under a fine hold up ride from Micky Fenton to assert strongly at the finish to win going away. That race isn't really up to much but the authority which he surged to the front close home off a fast pace was very taking and it certainly looked as if he had a promising staying flat career ahead of him. A couple of moderate efforts in a bumper and over hurdles followed this victory before he made his handicap debut over 13f at Lingfield. Kangaroo Court was rather disappointing on his handicap debut off a mark of 76 back in May but when analysing this race I definitely think the race wasn't run to suit and you can readily pass over it. They went slowly from the outset and it turned into a bit of a sprint towards the finish which didn't suit Kangaroo Court who was held up in last place as his stamina wasn't able to come into effect and it is definitely a race I'm completely ignoring. 8 days after this race he made his turf debut on the flat off the same mark at firm ground at Salisbury where a change of tactics proved ideal as he returned to the winners enclosure. Again under Fenton, that day Kangaroo Court made all over the 14f trip to land the Class 4 handicap in impressive style by 2.75L as he never once looked like getting caught. The form of that race looks good with the 3rd Monterey scoring off the same mark on his next start (Monterey would have finished closer to Kangaroo Court if he hadn't hung violently to the left) and it was a very good effort. Kangaroo Court's final start came in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot last month and although well beaten there are plenty of elements that lead me to overlook this race as well. Firstly, he may not have stayed the mammoth 2m6f trip on the flat. Secondly, he had to race just in behind the pace as Overturn made all and that probably wouldn't have suited and finally it was a Conditions race whereby he had to race against predominantly much higher rated horses off level weights. Moreover, I don't think the good to soft ground was ideal as his best efforts have come on a sounder surface. All four reasons I think are more than valid and I really don't think you could have expected him to play a role at the weights so I'm again ignoring that effort. Today he returns to handicap company and has only been raised 4lb for his latest effort which I think is extremely lenient from the handicapper. He's back down to 2m and whilst its an unknown as to whether or not he will stay this far he certainly shaped as if he would when scoring over 1m6f. Although facing a much easier task then he tackled at Royal Ascot, this Class 2 handicap represents a more significant challenge then his last victory at Salisbury and he will definitely need to pull out more if he wants to win this. It will be very interesting to see what tactics are adopted today as he may be held up if stamina is a concern but I really hope front running tactics are adopted as he relished it at Salisbury and there doesn't appear to be any other horses in the race who adopt these tactics. The excellent William Buick is a very eye catching booking in my eyes and he's a jockey that is in the form of his life at present. Although up against a number unexposed and improving rivals, Kangaroo Court fits into that bracket with only 4 starts to date in his career and with the good to firm ground seeming ideal I think he's going to run a massive race and I've had a large e/w in the hopes he can land this.
4.40 Ascot Love Your Looks 7/1 NB I'm a big fan of progressive and consistent fillies and Mike Murphy's 4 year old Love Your Looks fits into this category. In her 6 starts in handicaps to date, she has finished in the top 2 on every occasion winning 3 times as her handicap mark has shot up from an initial mark of 57 to racing today off a mark of 87 but I certainly don't think she's finished her improvement and I expect her to go very close again today. I'm only going to delve into detail for her last two starts but for her other 4 handicap starts she won three impressively and the other she was beaten by half a length as she just couldn't reach the winner in time. She's been extremely unlucky in her last two starts as she has come out on the wrong side of a photograph on both occasions and she definitely deserves to come out on top today. Two starts back off a mark of 80 she finished a very unlucky 2nd over 9f at Carlisle on good to firm ground back in May. After being held up off the pace, she travelled beautifully into the race under Graham Lee and when asked to challenge she was a bit all over the place as she hung a bit under pressure and she just couldn't get up in time to win. That day they went a steady pace which I don't think suited Love Your Looks at all and I think it was an excellent effort considering. The form of that Class 4 race looks fine as the winner scored again off a 3lb higher mark on her next start. For this effort she was raised 2lb to a mark of 82 as unfortunately the same fate as her previous race befell her as she again went down in a photograph. At Newmarket on similar ground, she was dropped back to 1m and upped in class as different tactics were employed in this race at the end of last month. Under Tony Culhane, Love Your Looks sat just on the quarters of the leader and again travelled well into her race before Culhane pushed her to the front with about 2.5f to go as she kicked a few lengths clear. I definitely think she idled out in front as the eventual winner Moone's My Name got about 3/4L ahead of her at the furlong pole before Love Your Looks rallied as she narrowly went down as the front two drew 4.75L clear of the 3rd. In hindsight, which is a beautiful thing, I am sure Culhane would have held onto her for a bit longer and if the race was rerun again I think Love Your Looks would have probably won. The form of that race looks pretty strong with the 3rd Russian Rave going down by a head on his only subsequent start in a similar race whilst the 6th Tuscania ran an excellent race to be beaten by only half a length off a 2lb lower mark. Love Your Looks form could take a huge boost as the winner Moone's My Name contests a Listed race earlier on the card and although I'll be surprised if she's up to winning that she's been pretty well supported early on and regardless the fact the winner has is contesting a pattern class shows how well thought of Ralph Beckett's filly is. For her latest defeat, Love Your Looks has been upped 5lb to a career high mark of 87 but its hardly surprising given that the front two forged well clear of the remained. She's upped to 10f which I don't think she'll have any problem with and she faces the same good to firm conditions as her last two races. Martin Dwyer takes over in the saddle for the first time and I'm guessing his instructions will be to play her late and not to hit the front too early. She's again upped in grade to a Class 2 and off a mark of 87 its going to take a career best to land this but she's clearly still progressing and in great heart at present and if the dead 8 go to post then I think the current 7/1 on offer looks a very solid e/w proposition but I really hope she gets a change of luck and can land this event.
8.45 Newmarket Green Mitas 20/1 Going to keep this one short enough but if getting the tactical ride I think Green Mitas could go very close to landing this 1m handicap. I'm ignoring his last effort which I think came on unsuitably soft ground but if replicating the form of his 3rd 2 starts ago at Chester then I think he could be very hard to beat. Although 0-8 to date, this 3 YO's career only started back in February and he has shown a bit of promise to date with probably his best effort coming on handicap debut at Wolverhampton off a mark of 65 back in April. Undoubtedly his best turf effort came two starts back on good ground at the end of June when going down by a 1.75L beaten 3rd when sent off a 50/1 shot off a mark of 59. Over the extended 10f trip, Ian Burns kicked Green Mitas for home with a little over 2f to and I think stamina just got the better of him late on as he finished a tired but very respectable 3rd. The form of that race looks rather strong with the 2nd and 6th winning on their next starts (winner hasn't reappeared) and in hindsight it was a really likeable effort. He was stepped back to 7f for his last start on unsuitable ground and I think he goes back up to an ideal 1m trip if given a similarly enterprising ride today again off a mark of 59. What I hope happens is either Green Mitas tries to make all or he is kicked on from the front with a couple of furlongs to go to try and use his (slightly) extra stamina to fend off his rivals. Mirco Demuro is an eye catching booking for the Frank Sheridan yard and is 2-9 for the yard this year and I find him to be a jockey who is particularly adept at using these tactics. I don't see any reason why Green Mitas can't reproduce his effort from 2 starts ago and if he does I think he could be very difficult to peg back for a trainer who has already had a 50/1 and 25/1 winner this year.
Quite like the look of Keith Reveley's Harvey's Hope in the 4.20 at Southwell today. His run over C&D in May, when beaten just over 2 lengths by Nicky Henderson's Cape Express (won at 1/6 his week and now rated 125) suggests he is starting to find his feet over hurdles and if he can progress from that run today he should go very close. His 2 main opponents are previous winners so he gets weight from both Ghaabesh (who only won a seller at Bangor) and Ivan Vasilevich, who wasn't overly convincing when winning at Stratford and the 2nd that day has since been beaten. Ivan Vasilevich was entered in the Bangor maiden won by Forgotten Voice the other day but was scratched from that, ocnnections obviously looking for an easier opportunity. Currently Ivan is showing at 5/4 with Harvey's Hope 7/4 but hopefully we might get a nicer price on the Reveley runner with BOG.
Morning chaps, and so to the big day of the opening ceremony for the Olympics... Though im sure i saw something about the fact that some sports had already started... Strange... Anyway a couple that i like are both at Southwell... Amuse Me and Art School... Amuse me ran a 3 timer up in May and made a reappearance at Worcester last month, but maybe the distance of 2m7 didnt suit, plus that was in a higher class of race. This, a more realistic 2m, can see he get back to winning ways for Jonjo and AP... Southwell 4.50 - Amuse Me, 11/2... Art School, as ATR kindly inform me is out of a French Classic winning dam, and related to several winners. My not bolt up to win here but defo one to keep an eye on and worth a go at the price... Southwell 5.20 - Art School, 11/2... Good luck to all who play today...
red I reckon Mason David Brown will take some beating in that bumper mate - no bet race for me though so best of luck with yours
Sell a mare and spend your time regretting it: Ballymacoll sold Tableau Vivant and her dam Sea Picture over the last two seasons and may regret getting rid of this niece and half-sister respectively of that wonderful mare Hellenic. Tonight it's put to the test when Theodore Gericault (6.10 Nmkt) makes his debut. By Sir Percy out of a Pivotal mare 6f looks a shade on the sharp side. But Sir Percy was no slouch over 6f and he's been mentioned on the gallops as showing some toe. With Ryan off, Stoute has entrusted the ride to Pat Dobbs who he's used frequently and was aboard the Queen's Estimate on her winning seasonal debut. Stoute's 2yos don't normally set the world alight first time out but this one may be worth some each way interest if at about 10-1.. Later on in the evening I can't help thinking there'll be some concern if the Queen's Momentary (7.30 Yrk), doesn't go in. Her Ribblesdale run was a huge disappointment after her defeat of the dual Oaks second Shirocco Star. In fact the Queen could pull off a double tonight with Free Verse and Sequence, far from without chances in their respective races. Leo Luna definitely has chances and as a half brother to Sea Moon and the Leger winner Brian Boru (but not Frankel) is going to need every yard of this 12f. Don't be surprised if Sanctioned runs a decent race at a longer price.
Yeah its not a full out big bet Oddy, just a note for one to keep an eye on in the McCain camp really... MDB looks the pick but it will be interesting to see how Art School runs... Watching brief with a little side bet shall we say...
