St Nicholas Abbey is a decent horse, but his ability has been somewhat overrated. largely due to the usual AOB hype, which I don't really get as I'd far rather John Gosden or SMS train a horse for me. Though thats just my view. He seems to get alot of ammo when there are better trainers out there. St Nicholas Abbey's form is nothing special, and he wont be winning this race! He may have done well on that ridiculous greyhound like track in America, and up against the beast that is Red Cadeaux around Epsom, but up against genuine G1 horses around fairer tracks he will be found out!* Il look stupid if I'm wrong, but I'm extremely confident that SNA will be found out tommorow!* Alot of punters see things the same way I do, hence the drift in the Market. Nathaniel will have him for breakfast again, just as he did 12 months ago *
I guess I've maybe bought into the hype Shergy, I think he'll run a bold race. Dunno if he'll win, but I'll be surprised if he gets spat out the back.
SNA is a bloody good horse, but you simply have to be alarmed by a drift like that, especially when it concerns a stable associated with high rolling owners. That and the right handed stats are enough for me to scratch SNA from my list of threats to Nathaniel, though I wouldn't be surprised to see him win going away. It often pays to keep it simple when punting on Gp1s, so I've narrowed the other threats down to previous Gp1 winners only. That knocks out Sea Moon, Brown Panther (who I have sneakily and perhaps foolishly backed in the place market on betfair), and Robin Hood, but it still leaves a significant international threat. Neither french horse, nor the Japaneses or German entries can be confidentally ruled out. But I think the biggest threat to Nathianel is the possibility that Sandown took too much out of him. Though when I reconsider that statement, it sounds like I'm just getting my excuses in early - cowardice, in other words. It's time to get the betting boots on.
Nathaniel will set the race up for a typical DANEDREAM finish. 11/1 Arc winner female nuff said. JOB DONE!!
Before ruling out non G1 winners it's worth a look to see if an easy non G1 winner has either beaten a G1 winner or has beaten a horse with greater ease than did a G1 winner. Haven't checked to see if this applies this year but it can be the sign of a fast improving, late maturing horse that will find no trouble coping with G1 winners.
The Ballydoyle excuse machine trotted out the going as the reason that St Nicholas Abbey did not win. So he can be scratched from the Arc reckoning as it won’t be quick in Paris. It was not that the horse was given too much to do by the trainer’s son. An examination of St Nicholas Abbey’s form would show that this season he has been beaten by his pacemaker Windsor Palace (note: they ran a different pacemaker in the King George); he beat trees to win the 2012 Coronation Cup; and he scraped home in the 2011 Coronation Cup when Sir Henry Cecil’s Midday was forced to go for home too soon. On the official ratings, the King George went almost to form as the German filly just made her sex allowance count over Nathaniel and St Nicholas Abbey chased the pair of them home. The Wonder Horse of two seasons ago has been proven to be just a good horse not a great one. Robin Hood setting a good pace almost certainly played into the hands of Danedream, who ran abysmally in the crawl that was the Grand Prix de Saint Cloud. Not sure how Sea Moon ended up favourite but it was a very disappointing effort by Sir Michael Stoute’s colt, who did not appear to be put into the race until too late. Perhaps he is not a real Group 1 horse, as he failed to overhaul Reliable Man who is definitely a second-tier performer.
The race lived up to expectations and was a race to savour. The mid-summer showpiece living up to its billing. I felt Nathaniel was very unfortunate not to win. The only time he wasn't the winner was right when it mattered. He was on top before the line and straight afterwards too and was caught out by his stride pattern and the perfect timing of Danedream's challenge. Ironically, I think it could be argued that Danedream being slightly held in her run early in the straight was what won her the race. Had she challenged Nathaniel earlier I got the impression that he would have responded again. I certainly thought he picked up again immediately after the line. St Nicholas Abbey didn't look to travel like he can on the ground and I do think he'll be worth another chance on a faster surface. The winner is small and not particularly attractive but what she lacks in looks she makes up for in ability and courage.
QM,enjoyable and objective read as always when Coolmore are involved in a big race. I agree SNA is an average G1 winner.Midday was also average but was easily put away in the CC by SNA who won going away.Midday actually had the run of the race that day and was an inferior racehorse on all know ratings and form.
Midday never did a tap in front. She was travelling too well so Queally was forced to commit earlier than ideal. Exactly the same happened in the Juddmonte International at York when she was mugged by Twice Over.
SNA hung all over the track and won "going away" in a race that was slowly run and would have suited Cecil's mare more than the AO'B colt I'd agree with that and tbh she never was up to G1 class away from her own gender designated heats. Lovely mare mind you!
St Nic was given a stinker and was going the wrong way round but still ran a blinder. Your bias is boring QM. I don't know why you are so intent on criticising the best trainer in the Uk but you do and it's unbelievably wide of the mark.
QUOTE=Zenyatta;3178003]The race lived up to expectations and was a race to savour. The mid-summer showpiece living up to its billing. I felt Nathaniel was very unfortunate not to win. The only time he wasn't the winner was right when it mattered. He was on top before the line and straight afterwards too and was caught out by his stride pattern and the perfect timing of Danedream's challenge. Ironically, I think it could be argued that Danedream being slightly held in her run early in the straight was what won her the race. Had she challenged Nathaniel earlier I got the impression that he would have responded again. I certainly thought he picked up again immediately after the line. St Nicholas Abbey didn't look to travel like he can on the ground and I do think he'll be worth another chance on a faster surface. The winner is small and not particularly attractive but what she lacks in looks she makes up for in ability and courage.[/QUOTE] Zen, your summary may be right but Danedream doesn't look like a horse that downs tools once she gets to the front- she really galloped all the way to the line- as she did in The Arc. In fact, it was a magnificent race that neither horse genuinely deserved to lose- a dead heat really would have been a fair result. Also, probably Nathaniel would have beaten her on even softer ground; likewise Danedream would be a bit better on good ground. A great race and immense credit to both horses.[
I can't agree that Nathaniel was unlucky to have been beaten because he was between strides. Personally, I think it's giving credit where is not due. He had every chance to win the race, but just wasn't up to the task. At the furlong pole, he still had better than a length up his sleeve and had the chance to put the race away from there. But Danedream clearly ground him down and beat him fair and square. Youtube has some wonderful film of the race. The bit I liked the most was the head on shot. As try as I might, I couldn't see Nathaniel coming away after they passed the post. In fact he looked to want to pull up a bit quicker than Danedream. On what I saw, I believe that the filly/mare would still have been too strong for Nathaniel, if the race had been a furlong longer. I think he'd had enough on the line.
