Purely as a racehorse on what you see in both of them, forget stud values. I'd say Camelot is the classier and has the gears to run in an Arc, whereas Imperial Monarch is the galloper with the stamina to win a Leger.
Interesting news about the Japanese raider, Orfevre. Connections have signed up Christophe Soumillon to ride. He has won the race twice, so knows what it takes. Connections have also said they will take in a trial, i think the Prix Foy en route, with CS also booked to ride. Its become almost an obssesion for the Japanese to win the Arc, who have gone mighty close in recent year and i believe they will do it within the next 10 to 15 years.
I see Timeform have Orfevre on 131 level with Nathaniel and Danedream. He was 30/100F when 11th of 18 to Beat Black over 2m and 1/10F when 2nd to Gustave Cry over 15f. From 10-13f he is 6 from 6 on going ranging from firm to soft. Winnings over £7m. Not my idea of the winner though.
can't explain his 11th but when he was 2nd, it was quite extraordinary. the horse led then hung to his left very badly losing position to end up nearly last, then rallied to pass the field again. it is hard to know his true chance, and if he is a 131 horse, but anyway, a fasinating contender. is number 12, pink hat [video=youtube;vRh2DaAei5k]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRh2DaAei5k[/video]
I see what you mean Hawkeye. Jockey seemed to pull him up as if he thought something was wrong. Looked as though the horse didn't want to be pulled up though. As you say, very strange. Could have won that easily.
Interesting your reply there ron, because i thought the complete opposite. My take on it, is the horse thought the race was over(or rather thought he'd done what was wanted of him) and began pulling himself up. Yet the jockey looked very weak, and was unable to keep him going. The field passed Orfevre, at which point he realised he needed to carry on and caught up with the pack, before passing them again(but 1).
I'll have another look Hawkeye. That was my first impression. I'll see what my wife and daughter think (although my daughter won't be here until tomorrow).
Oh well, the wife has fallen asleep. I will be especially interested to hear how Amanda sees it tomorrow. Meanwhile I've had another look and it looks clearly to me that the jockey took a pull (watch his right elbow). Maybe he didn't want him to go too far ahead too early and tried to pull him back to the field and there was a bit of misunderstanding between horse and jockey.
your right the jockey was trying to pull him back, even when the field had passed the jockey didn't seem to be over excerting himself to keep in touch and get going again. small chance he even mistaked the winning line. this must rank as one of the strangest races ever.
just found this review of the race. may be of interest. has a few jockey quotes ect. Japanese Triple Trown winner Orfevre proved his willfulness and speed during an extraordinary finish to the Hanshin Daishoten, one of the major events in Japan’s racing calendar. The colt, considered the best racehorse in Japan, had a flawless run and was several lengths ahead of the chasing pack when he suddenly started to pull up and veer away from the rail on the third corner of the second lap. With less than 1,000 meters to go in the 3,000-meter race on March 18, Orfevre slowed to 11th place out of 12 horses. Then, almost as if he were a showboating athlete, Orfevre began accelerating back though the field, eventually finishing in second place, a half a length behind the winner Gustave Cry. Jockey Kenichi Ikezoe, 32, apologized for the incident, but it is not the first time his mount has shown his “playfulness.” During his debut race in August 2010 and at the Kikuka Sho in October 2011, Orfevre ignored Ikezoe and continued running past the finish line and then threw Ikezoe. His sire, Stay Gold, was also known for its fierce personality. “I don’t know exactly what happened, but, judging from the video, his body got really stiff and his legs weren’t running correctly right before his mishap,” says Japan Farriers Association board member Ryo Kusunose, 60, who has studied equine behavior at the Japan Racing Association's Equine Research Institute. Kusunose, author of the book “Thoroughbreds fly, too,” believes that Orfevre thought the race had ended. In the Hanshin Daishoten, the horses start before the Hanshin Race Course’s second corner, pass the finish line, and then run another lap. Typically, Orfevre runs behind the leaders and wins with a kick at the finish. On March 18, the pack was running slowly and Orfevre began accelerating around the second corner on the second lap. As he hit the front, he may have thought the race had finished. Some horses are trained to run with other horses during training. Once they overtake their rivals, their jockeys stop giving instructions to continue running. “Horses have good memory. Lab tests have proven that they remember things they learned for quite some time,” says Kusunose. For example, in one experiment, horses that had never raced at one course did not respond to a recording of a fanfare. However, horses that had raced there showed signs of excitement, apparently indicating that they remembered the excitement of the race associated with those sounds. It is certainly not unprecedented for horses to prefer habit to their jockey’s instructions. Triple crown winner Mr. C.B. reportedly tried to go home every time he came near to the exit to his training ground. Horses are quite intelligent animals. Based on the encephalization quotient (EQ), which is a rough estimate of animal intelligence based on a measure of relative brain size defined as the ratio between actual brain mass and predicted brain mass for an animal of a given size, horses have an average EQ of 0.10. This is not as high as dogs (0.14) or cats (0.12), but is higher than cows (0.06). Orfevre’s next big race is the Tenno Sho (Spring) on April 29
Bizarre race that HK one! One thing is for sure- he was head and shoulders above that field. We'll learn a fair bit about him in the French trials
Right Hawkeye, my experts have watched the race. Watching my daughter watching the video was quite amusing as I was watching the race at the same time on another laptop. As the horse approached the point of incident a big grin came over her face as she said "the little ****". I asked her to double check which she did and is absolutely certain what happened. The little **** said right that's it; I’m not going any further and started napping. He cocked his jaw, taking hold of the bit and started veering left, the jockey at that point having very little/no control. The jockey's movement with his right arm (which I thought was the jockey taking a pull) was in fact the jockey trying to pull him back into the race. The horse had effectively dug his heels in losing all momentum, causing him to rapidly drop out of the race. Having seen all the other horses go past and leave him behind, he then thought “****, all my mates are leaving me behind” and decided to get going again with the jockey back in control. Basically, the horse, in my daughter’s words, was being “a little ****”. She reckons the problem won’t be so bad in October when there are no mares in season but it’s likely he won’t arrive at the front (if capable) until very late. It was interesting that she thought the opposition were a load of donkeys and wasn’t surprised that the colt had won so much against horses like that. She also said there was nothing the jockey could have done in the circumstances. So in summary, you were right. My observation that the jockey took a pull was in fact a reaction from the jockey that he was forced to take because of the horse’s behaviour. My wife independently came to the same conclusion but my daughter is more able to explain vividly, with all the actions. I know nothing. please log in to view this image
After the King George and the Irish Oaks, the latest Arc betting reads: 3/1 Camelot 6/1 Danedream 7/1 Nathaniel 10/1 St Nicholas Abbey 14/1 Valyra 16/1 Orfevre 20/1 Great Heavens, Sea Moon, Imperial Monarch, Last Train, Meandre, Main Sequence, Beauty Parlour 25/1 Born To Sea, Farhh, Novellist 33/1 Reliable Man, Dunaden, Galikova, Deep Brillante Great Heavens is not in the original entry but can join her brother the week before the race if they choose.
I wouldn't even bet 3/1 Camelot running in the Arc. So with Camelot not running what would the odds be?
On good or softer - Nathaniel On faster - St Nicholas Abbey At this stage anyway. Plenty of water to flow under the bridge still....
There's no need to run Camelot this time round because they won't retire him this season at the same time as Frankel I would imagine. Plus they have a new Montjeu in Pour Moi who they might want to get up and running. I think we might be lucky in that we could well see him next year especially as he's likely not to race older horses this season (I doubt they'll go at Frankel in the Champion Stakes). I still think SNA is the best horse but I can't really complain too much after yesterday. I don't quite know what to make of the ride by Joseph though. I'd like to see him closer to the pace in the Arc. Danedream was oh so gutsy and clearly goes at Longchamp too so I think she has a cracking chance. I was very impressed with her yesterday but I'm not sure she'll go off an awful lot shorter than 6s. One that interests me e/w at a price is Main Sequence who I think is the next best 3yo over the trip but he'll be Ledger bound I'd have thought.
