The reason SNA is favourite is down to the announcement by Ascot racecourse that the 12f races at Ascot would be trialled the other way round to give spectators in the stand a better view of the start and finish. There is some concern about the final bend and run in and ideally the winning post would be moved. An update will be issued by the stewards on Friday.
With Nathaniel now a confirmed runner I simply had to take some 3/1 about a horse that should be the 2/1 favourite at best.
I'm Off to Ascot on Saturday and for me Nathaniel will be very hard to beat, he has this crown and i cant see any reason for him not to go very close to retaining it... I'm not an O'Brien fan (its personal) so anything but SNA 11/4 what a joke, and i'll enjoy my day anyway. Sea Moon won the Hardwicke really impressively but that race doesnt appear the strongest...one thing i also noted was there was really serious money for him that day and i just wonder if hes peaked a bit early and has nothing to find on that performance. Looking forward to it anyway.
[video=youtube;Tza_SAm0xHQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tza_SAm0xHQ[/video] [video=youtube;0K8blil4ObY]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K8blil4ObY&feature=related[/video] [video=youtube;znsslI2vShI]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znsslI2vShI[/video] [video=youtube;yeWfMzuGb2U]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeWfMzuGb2U[/video] [video=youtube;0BjMow8WEmQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BjMow8WEmQ[/video] [video=youtube;TfwiZ1Dzz8U]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfwiZ1Dzz8U[/video] So, the videos above are the top 3 in the betting, with bits of overlapping form, and the tightness of them in the market tells you that it is a difficult race to call. Some will say Danedream is hugely overpriced but the Arc win, whilst impressive, seemed to fall beautifully into her hands and she got a perfect trip. She was beaten fair and square by Meandre last time, who is a good horse but not a great horse, and I suspect she will come up short here. That said, she is a classy filly and handles the ground, so in some respects I could understand an e/w punter putting her case forward. However, I think you need to consider the way the race is likely to pan out. There is a confirmed pacemaker in the shape of Windsor Palace/Robin Hood, whilst Masked Marvel can really go at it hammer and nails from the front as he has the proven stamina. Shareta tried to make all and indeed came 2nd in an Arc, and Nathaniel always races prominently and kicks on for home and asks if you are good enough to pass him. With that in mind, I can see Nathaniel looking to take up the running half a mile out as Shareta and the pacemakers drop away, Masked Marvel weakening, and then him looking to see them off. Nathaniel's stamina is superb- it is his biggest asset in line with his soft ground preference. Therefore for me- you are not going to outstay Nathaniel- so why anyone would think Dunaden could win an event like this I'm not sure. For me it will have to be a horse with a burst of speed and who will stay strongly in the conditions. That leaves it between Sea Moon and St Nicholas Abbey to do that as I think Nathaniel will stretch Danedream too much for her to get home. SEA MOON to me personally looks on the brink of an explosive Group 1 performance. It was a little bold of me to put his video of the Hardwicke next to Harbingers Hardwicke win, because we know how good the latter was and comparing Sea Moon to him looks a bit premature. However, there are some real similarities. If you watch the way Sea Moon responds to a little nudge from Moore coming round Swindley, he quickens up very smartly and is back on the bridle cruising up. Moore then asks him to win the race and its put to bed decisively up the home straight, and did hang towards the rail the same way Harbinger did. Dunaden running on but never ever going to catch him. It was a good turn of foot, and he stayed powerfully, and the ground had a bit of give that say, much like the Great Voltigeur at York in 2011. I'm convinced he handles soft ground very well and this is why I think he might just have what it takes to see off Nathaniel, whom I rate so very highly. He will be spot on for his 3rd start of the season- Stoute brings them on gradually- and I think he will be a much shorter Arc price come Sunday. He is a very good horse- still on the upgrade in my eyes. His defeat to ST NICHOLAS ABBEY in the USA was a good run- SNA excels on tight tracks as seen at Chester and at the Breeders Cup and loves left handed tracks, boasting an exceptional strike rate. His defeats have come at Ascot and the Curragh going right handed, and he looks better on quicker ground now, as seen at Epsom, Chester, and Churchill. For me things are against him on Saturday. Sea Moon looks to have been bought to the boil gradually, whilst SNA has had a tough season already andNATHANIELwill either be spot on from his reappearance and improve up in trip or might just get tired late on when digging in against a running on challenger. He gets his ground and ought to run a big race- he had no issues after a tough race against Treasure Beach at Chester last year when slamming his rivals at Royal Ascot, though the gap is shorter between races this time. He is a gutsy horse though and does stay the trip so well. Really good race in prospect and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Let's enjoy it.
Thanks Toppy. I really enjoyed that. It looks a cracking race. Just a pity that Camelot didn't skip the Irish Derby and run in this. That would have been so informative,
Quite right Ron, that is why I was surprised they left ut Imperial Monarch too, because they could have tested the water with him that way should they have wished.
Two things. It was really sad to see Rewilding end up like that, and St Nic seems to love it away from the UK. Must be a great traveller.
I wish I could have had a video where we didn't have to see the breakdown of Rewilding, such a shame, a horse really coming into his own as a 4 Y O. Personally I think a lot more horses should continue as 4 year olds as they can continue to mature and is one of the reasons I really look forward to Sea Moon having a crack at this field on Saturday.
I see that no filly has obliged in this heat since Henry Candy’s Time Charter did the business way back in 1983! Hardly the sort of stat that supporters of Danedream and Shareta want to hear. Looking at the runners in the race though the thing that I find most amazing is the amount of loot won by the Japanese raider, Deep Brillante – in 6 races he’s raked in £2.418 million. That’s almost 3 times more than Nathaniel (8 races, 2 Group 1 wins and a Royal Ascot Group 2) and almost 4 times more than Sea Moon (8 races, 2 Group 2 wins and Classic placed). No wonder 'our' trainers are so keen on ‘industrial action’!
I see from RP site that SNA has been drifting in the betting, out as big as 10-1 at one point on Betfair this morning, though he is now back into 4s. More here. Should we expect another last minute withdrawl
The weather appears to be relenting at long last, and just in time for a terrific renewal of the King George. I must confess to still feeling very out of sync with the flat season but have decided to throw a few darts at Ascot tomorrow in the feature and the supporting Summer Mile. I think the importance of feeling 'in the zone', a phenomenon that is difficult to describe but I'm sure we all understand, is underestimated. So often it is not the hours of work but that strong gut feeling that brings you your best results. Of course, the 'in the zone' feeling is only achieved through hard work and this is where I am lacking. Having missed much of the start of the flat season I have not the inclination to get back on top of the formbook. My focus is already on the jumps season ahead but, before then, my thoughts on tomorrows card here: http://tommarch.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/king-george-at-ascot.html. Whatever happens, the King George promises to be 'one for the ages', a fantastic race in prospect. I am heading to Ascot tomorrow and am looking forward to a great day. The forecast is hardly for brilliant sunshine and scorching temperatures but significantly better than over much of the past month or so. Should be perfect for some top class racing action. Best of luck to all who play.
Think st Nicholas abbey will be impossible to beat working better than ever he is really becoming a class older horse
The weather is set fair, the ground looks fine for all and there is a quality line-up for the top middle-distance event of the summer. So a quick assessment of the protagonists: 1 Black Panther – upgraded handicapper completely out of his depth. Should be off pot hunting in Germany or Italy. 2 Dunaden – Melbourne Cup winner, yet to reproduce that sort of form this term so susceptible. 3 Masked Marvel – St Leger winner who may be found wanting for pace and has not won since Doncaster 2011. 4 Nathaniel – excellent prospects of retaining his crown after tremendous Eclipse win on seasonal bow; the one to beat with few doubts and top class credentials. 5 Reliable Man – has not hit form in three attempts this term and difficult to see in shake-up. Last win was in an Arc warm-up event. 6 Robin Hood – pacemaker for the other Ballydoyle contender; what he does could be the key to the race. 7 Sea Moon – Hardwicke Stakes victory over course and distance suggests clearly on the upgrade for the master of older horses. Needs a career-best but that is not impossible given Royal Ascot effort. 8 St Nicholas Abbey – consistent performer although easy to crab some of the pot hunting in Ireland and victories over lacklustre rivals. Ought to be involved at the business end if the track is not his problem. 9 Danedream – Arc winner who disappointed in a tactical affair last time. Needs to run more like the horse from October 2011 Longchamp to be in at the finish. 10 Deep Brillante – only three-year-old and impossible to assess his Japanese Derby win, but does get the weight-for-age allowance. Nathaniel is going to be a very hard nut to crack with the only concern being the close proximity of this to his Sandown exertions. Comparison with Sir Michael Stoute’s last winner are unfair on Sea Moon, but he may give the favourite most to do and Danedream should not be dismissed depending on how the race is run.
